The Patient Investor @ThePatientQuant

$MU Micron’s strongest demand signal is also becoming its biggest execution risk. RBC kept a $1,500 target as agentic AI increases memory requirements. Intel’s CEO says memory prices have risen five-to-sevenfold, suggesting supply remains tight. Meanwhile, unions representing more than 80% of Micron’s 15,000 Taiwan employees are seeking 15% of global operating profit and keeping strike preparations active. Tight supply supports pricing power, but it also makes every production disruption more expensive. The next earnings catalyst is therefore two-sided: stronger HBM pricing can lift margins, while labor stability and shipment execution determine how much of that opportunity reaches revenue.

Wendy’s turnaround now has a franchisee balance-sheet problem. Meritage Hospitality, which operates 314 Wendy’s restaurants, filed for Chapter 11 after store-level EBITDA fell 48% in 2025. Wendy’s U.S. same-restaurant sales declined 7.8%, while Meritage owes the franchisor nearly $25 million in deferred fees. That suggests weak traffic is beginning to affect the system’s ability to reinvest. A franchise model depends on operators funding remodels, opening stores and maintaining service quality. When their margins collapse, royalty growth and brand recovery can slow together. Wendy’s needs better restaurant-level economics, not simply a new marketing campaign. $WEN

CNBC @CNBC

a day ago

Wendy's franchisee files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection as burger chain struggles cnbc.com/2026/09/18/wen…

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@SJosephBurns Every adjustment trades one risk for another. The useful discipline is to quantify the exchange beforehand through expectancy, stop distance and position size, then avoid improving one metric by quietly worsening total portfolio risk.

@unusual_whales Bearish sentiment becomes more informative when it coincides with weakening breadth, earnings revisions and credit spreads. A television label alone cannot distinguish a durable regime change from a volatile correction.

An 18% Goldman drawdown suggests investors are repricing rate sensitivity and capital-markets expectations. Stabilization likely needs either lower yields or firmer evidence that dealmaking and trading revenue can absorb the tougher backdrop. $GS

Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 @MikeZaccardi

a day ago

$GS -8.5% this week... worst since April 2025 18% drawdown

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@InvestingVisual AI demand may keep memory tight, but Micron’s Taiwan labor dispute adds near-term supply risk. With unions representing over 80% of 15,000 workers, execution matters as much as the $1,500 target.

@SawyerMerritt Expanding from 45 registered Cybercabs in early September to 58 now is a measurable ramp. Fleet size alone does not prove economics; paid rides, utilization, intervention rates and revenue per vehicle will determine operating leverage.

@TripleNetInvest Meritage’s 48% drop in 2025 store-level EBITDA shows the pressure is deeper than brand sentiment. Wendy’s needs traffic recovery and franchisee-level margin repair because weaker operators can slow remodels, openings and royalty growth.

One launch delivering 20 times Falcon 9’s Starlink capacity could lower deployment cost per unit and accelerate revenue availability. The thesis still depends on Starship reliability, launch cadence and V3 satellite performance once operational batches fly. $SPCX

DogeDesigner @cb_doge

a day ago

BREAKING: SpaceX CFO says Starship will change the scale of Starlink forever. “One launch of Starship with these V3 satellites will be the equivalent of 20 times what we were flying with Falcon 9. When you’re flying 50 or 60 satellites per flight, you’re putting up an enormous

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Berkshire Hathaway completed the most consequential leadership transition in modern U.S. investing: Warren Buffett stepped down as chairman after more than six decades, with Howard Buffett taking the non-executive chair. Crypto equities exploded as Bitcoin jumped 5.9% above $80,000: Coinbase, Strategy and Robinhood gained 9.1%-16.4%, while Xenon Pharmaceuticals collapsed 30.7% after pausing enrollment in depression studies over neuropsychiatric adverse events. The S&P 500 still gained 0.17% and Nasdaq 0.40%, but the 10-year Treasury moved back above 5% and declining stocks decisively outnumbered advancers. Everything that mattered in the market today: 👉 COMPANIES 1. $BRK.A/$BRK.B: Warren Buffett stepped down as Berkshire Hathaway chairman and became chairman emeritus; his son Howard Buffett became non-executive chairman, while Greg Abel remains CEO. Berkshire ended June with $364.7B of cash and has lagged the S&P 500 by about 11 percentage points in 2026. 2. $MP: China Rare Earth Group is in talks to acquire Shenghe Resources, according to Reuters; Shenghe owns about 3% of MP Materials, while the U.S. Department of Defense is MP’s largest shareholder. 3. $ARAI/$DXC: Arrive AI expanded details of its DXC partnership to deploy Arrive Point autonomous-delivery infrastructure across large enterprise manufacturing campuses supporting drones, robots, autonomous vehicles and human couriers. 4. $PUSA: Powerus, which is pursuing a merger with Nasdaq-listed Aureus Greenway Holdings, received a limited procurement order from Pakistan’s Ministry of Defence for unmanned aerial systems and signed a non-binding strategic MOU for potential expanded defense cooperation. 5. $BRR: ProCap Financial said it will join the Russell 2000 and Russell 3000 effective at the September 21 market open, creating a near-term index-flow catalyst. 👉 EARNINGS / GUIDANCE 6. $NUE: Nucor fell sharply after guiding Q3 EPS to $5.55-$5.65, below consensus; management still expects sequentially higher steel-mill and steel-products earnings, while raw-material earnings decline. 7. $STLD: Steel Dynamics fell after guiding Q3 EPS to $5.34-$5.38, below consensus, even as it expects record steel shipments, higher realized pricing and lower scrap costs to lift steel operations sequentially. 👉 ANALYST ACTIONS 8. $NFLX: Netflix closed down about 4.1% after Wells Fargo cut it to Underweight from Equal Weight and slashed its target to $57 from $80, citing weaker engagement; estimated first-half viewing was 1.6 hours per subscriber per day, about 8% below adjusted 2023 levels. 9. $MTSI: BMO upgraded MACOM Technology Solutions to Outperform with a $335 target, arguing its forward multiple has compressed to roughly 29x while fiscal-2026 data-center revenue is projected to grow about 70%. 10. $DT: Needham upgraded Dynatrace to Buy with a $68 target. 11. $TRGP: TD Cowen upgraded Targa Resources to Buy and raised its target to $350. 12. $MGA: BMO downgraded Magna International to Market Perform from Outperform and cut its target to $70 from $76, citing the Fed’s hawkish turn and renewed trade tensions. 13. $ARRY: UBS downgraded Array Technologies to Neutral and cut its target to $5 from $10. 14. $XENE: Deutsche Bank downgraded Xenon to Hold and cut its target to $46 from $90 after the psychiatry-trial pause; RBC retained Outperform but cut its target to $70. 15. $YETI: Stifel upgraded YETI to Buy with a $50 target. 16. $WCN: UBS upgraded Waste Connections to Buy with a $200 target after recent underperformance. 17. $BMI: Northcoast Research upgraded Badger Meter to Buy with a $148 target. 👉 M&A / CAPITAL MOVES 18. $CRWV: CoreWeave priced an upsized $3.7B offering of 2.875% convertible notes due 2033, versus the initially announced $3.0B; the initial conversion price is about $97.85, a 22.5% premium to Thursday’s $79.88 close, with a further $500M purchaser option. 19. $CLSK: CleanSpark proposed $2.227B of senior secured notes due 2031 to finance its Sandersville AI data-center buildout, reimburse prior equity contributions and fund debt-service reserves; the offering remains subject to market conditions. 20. $CAVA: CAVA authorized up to $100M of share repurchases through September 17, 2027, funded from cash and operating cash flow. 👉 REGULATION / LEGAL 21. $PSKY/$WBD: The FCC approved Paramount Skydance’s request to permit foreign investment supporting its proposed roughly $110B Warner transaction, clearing an important regulatory hurdle. 22. $MP: The potential China Rare Earth/Shenghe transaction could place Shenghe’s minority MP Materials stake under Chinese state control, sharpening the strategic tension around a Pentagon-backed U.S. rare-earth asset. 👉 FDA / BIOTECH 23. XENE: Xenon plunged 30.7% after voluntarily pausing new enrollment in major-depression and bipolar-depression studies of azetukalner following neuropsychiatric adverse events; already-enrolled patients continue, and epilepsy studies are unaffected. 24. RARE: Ultragenyx remained in focus after the FDA’s September 17 approval of Fayuvi, the first treatment for Sanfilippo syndrome Type A; the approval also earned the company a Priority Review Voucher. 👉 MANAGEMENT CHANGES 25. BRK.A/BRK.B: Howard Buffett, a Berkshire director since 1993, became non-executive chairman as Warren Buffett shifted to chairman emeritus; Greg Abel continues to run operations as CEO. 26. AIG: AIG General Insurance CEO Jon Hancock is set to retire at year-end 2026, creating another senior succession decision for the insurer. 👉 DIVIDENDS / SHAREHOLDER RETURNS 27. CAVA: The $100M authorization represents a new capital-return lever for a company that had about $322.8M of cash and cash equivalents and no debt as of July 12. 28. NUE: Nucor’s capital-return framework remains active alongside the guidance reset; the company has maintained a long record of consecutive cash dividends. 👉 PRODUCT / PARTNERSHIPS 29. ARAI/DXC: Arrive AI and DXC are targeting enterprise-scale manufacturing sites where autonomous logistics must move goods across very large multi-building campuses. 👉 MARKET THEMES 30. SPX/IXIC/DJI: The S&P 500 rose 0.17% to 7,650.50 and Nasdaq gained 0.40% to 26,522.55, while the Dow fell 0.18% to 51,682.64. 31. SEMICONDUCTORS: Semiconductor strength carried technology to the top of the S&P 500 sector table and kept the Nasdaq positive despite weak overall breadth. 32. BTC/COIN/MSTR/HOOD: Bitcoin jumped 5.9% above $80,000; Coinbase, Strategy and Robinhood gained between 9.1% and 16.4%, making crypto-linked equities the session’s strongest high-attention pocket. 33. TREASURIES: The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield moved back above 5%, reintroducing a major duration and valuation headwind only a day after yields had eased below that threshold. 34. OIL: Brent settled at $104.87 and WTI at $100.30 after China, responding to Saudi Arabia, pressed Iran to curb Houthi attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure; crude remained above $100 despite easing from session highs. 35. FED: Fed funds futures priced a 55.4% probability of another October hike, up from 42.5% a week earlier and just 7.2% a month ago. 36. BOJ: The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate from 1.0% to 1.25%, the highest in 31 years, in a 7-2 vote as global central banks respond to inflation pressure. 37. BREADTH: NYSE decliners beat advancers 1.78-to-1 and Nasdaq decliners 1.42-to-1; the S&P 500 recorded 30 new lows versus five new highs. 38. VOLUME: U.S. exchange volume reached 25.29B shares versus a 20-day average of 16.19B, amplified by expiration-related activity and elevated macro volatility. 39. WEEKLY TAPE: The Dow suffered its biggest weekly percentage decline since March; the S&P 500 posted a small weekly loss while the Nasdaq finished above the prior Friday. 👉 STOCKS TO WATCH 40. BRK.A/BRK.B: The Buffett-to-Abel/Howard transition is now structurally complete. Investors will increasingly judge Berkshire on deployment of its $364.7B cash pile and operating execution rather than a residual “Buffett premium.” 41. XENE: The next key variable is whether dosing modifications allow a quick restart of psychiatry enrollment without changing azetukalner’s risk-benefit profile; the 30.7% selloff shows the market has repriced pipeline probability sharply. 42. NFLX: Watch whether engagement data or Q4 viewership disclosure validates Wells Fargo’s bearish thesis; the $57 target sits far below several bullish Street targets, creating unusually wide expectation dispersion. 43. CRWV: CoreWeave’s upsized $3.7B convertible shows capital remains available, but dilution, leverage and cash-burn economics stay central to the AI-neocloud investment case. 44. NUE/STLD: Both steelmakers now have a guidance-versus-industry setup: near-term EPS disappointed, yet realized steel pricing and shipment commentary remain constructive. Q4 pricing lag will be the key test. 45. CAVA: The buyback is meaningful relative to CAVA’s roughly $6B market capitalization but discretionary; execution will signal how strongly management views the post-selloff valuation. 46. MP: Any formal China Rare Earth/Shenghe deal could become a geopolitical catalyst because Shenghe’s 3% MP stake sits inside a strategically sensitive U.S. mine-to-magnet supply chain. 47. BTC/COIN/MSTR/HOOD: Friday’s crypto-equity beta was extreme: equities rose substantially more than Bitcoin itself. That leverage works both ways if yields stay above 5% or Bitcoin reverses. 👉 DEEP ANALYSIS / MARKET INTELLIGENCE 48. THE INDEX WAS GREEN, BUT THE MARKET UNDERNEATH WAS NOT: The S&P 500 gained 0.17% and Nasdaq 0.40%, yet NYSE decliners beat advancers 1.78-to-1 and the S&P logged six times as many new lows as new highs. Technology and semiconductors masked broad weakness. This suggests Friday was a leadership-concentration session, not a clean continuation of Thursday’s broad risk-on rebound. 49. 5% TREASURIES ARE NOW THE MARKET’S REAL HURDLE RATE: The 10-year moved back above 5% while markets raised the probability of an October Fed hike to 55.4%. At the same time, the BOJ lifted rates to a 31-year high. The key read-through is that global discount rates are tightening together; long-duration equities now need unusually strong earnings revisions to offset the higher cost of capital. 50. CRYPTO EQUITIES ARE TRADING LIKE LEVERAGED LIQUIDITY OPTIONS: Bitcoin rose 5.9%, but Coinbase, Strategy and Robinhood gained 9.1%-16.4%. The equity beta is being amplified by tokenization/regulatory optionality and balance-sheet exposure. One possible implication is that these stocks can outperform dramatically during liquidity bursts but carry materially greater downside convexity if Bitcoin or risk appetite reverses. 51. COREWEAVE SHOWS AI DEMAND DOES NOT REMOVE FINANCING RISK: CoreWeave upsized its convertible from $3.0B to $3.7B and can add another $500M, demonstrating strong capital-market access. But the company is paying roughly $499M for capped calls and continues to layer financing onto a capital-intensive infrastructure model. This suggests the AI buildout can simultaneously create extraordinary revenue visibility and persistent per-share financing risk. 52. STEEL IS SHOWING A CLASSIC EXPECTATIONS GAP: Nucor and Steel Dynamics both guided below consensus even while describing stronger shipments, pricing and steel-segment profitability. U.S. benchmark steel prices have risen sharply this year, so the stocks are no longer priced merely for recovery. The key read-through is that when an industry moves from trough to strong pricing, estimate momentum must keep outrunning valuation expansion or shares can fall on objectively improving fundamentals. 53. BERKSHIRE HAS BECOME A PURE CAPITAL-ALLOCATION TEST: Warren Buffett’s chair transition removes the final formal leadership role after Greg Abel became CEO. Berkshire holds $364.7B of cash, trades near 1.5x trailing book, and has lagged the S&P 500 by about 11 percentage points this year. The next rerating is likely to depend less on succession and more on whether Abel can deploy cash at returns high enough to overcome the drag from such a large liquidity reserve. 54. XENON IS A REMINDER THAT BIOTECH VALUE IS PROBABILITY-WEIGHTED, NOT BACKLOG-LIKE: A single safety signal erased 30.7% of Xenon’s equity value even though the pause is described as temporary and epilepsy studies continue. That reaction reflects how much valuation was attached to psychiatry expansion. For independent investors, the lesson is that pipeline breadth matters only when clinical risks are genuinely uncorrelated. 55. CAVA’S BUYBACK IS A VALUATION SIGNAL, NOT YET A SHARE-COUNT EVENT: CAVA authorized $100M against a roughly $6B equity value and intends to fund purchases from cash and operating cash flow. The authorization is only about 1.7% of market value and does not require actual purchases. Its information value may therefore be greater than its mechanical EPS effect: execution, not authorization, will show whether management truly sees the stock as mispriced.

@PeterLBrandt Risk control keeps losses survivable, but the return distribution still needs a few positions large enough to pay for many ordinary trades.

August manufacturing output fell 0.3%, ending seven monthly gains, while capacity utilization stayed at 76.3%. AI investment offers support, but weakness across durable goods suggests the broader industrial cycle is losing momentum.

Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders

a day ago

August industrial production (top pane) flat m/m vs. +0.3% est. & +0.2% prior … manufacturing production (bottom pane) -0.3% vs. +0.3% est. & +0.2% prior

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The US has more data center capacity than the next 14 countries combined. The U.S. lead reflects more than server count. Power, fiber, labor and permitting will decide whether capacity keeps compounding, especially when the construction industry already faces a roughly 439,000 worker shortage.

@wallstengine Expanding SAP Business AI across seven regions gives AWS stronger enterprise distribution. The investment case depends on customers moving from pilots into recurring cloud consumption rather than simply gaining regional availability.

$SPCX SpaceX may receive one of the largest mechanical bids of the year. Its Nasdaq-100 weight is expected to rise from roughly 1.28% to 2.82%, potentially forcing $15.5 billion to $22 billion of passive buying around the rebalance. That demand can move the price without changing revenue, margins or launch economics. The more useful signal comes afterward: whether liquidity remains deeper, active investors hold the new valuation and price discovery stays orderly once index funds finish buying. A rebalance can create demand. Sustaining the valuation still requires fundamentals.

@DividendGrowth But noted that it is the smallest raise since 2020. That restraint fits a business balancing shareholder returns against softer traffic and consumer pressure.

Job cut announcements falling 41% year over year is encouraging, but concentration in California, Texas and Washington points to uneven pressure. State and sector mix may matter more than the national headline for earnings sensitivity.

Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders

a day ago

Per @ChallengerGray data, California leads nation in layoffs (YTD thru August) followed by Texas and Washington, but overall job cut announcements fell 41% compared to same period last year @DataArbor

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@Mayhem4Markets Twenty-three-hour trading improves access, but thinner overnight liquidity may widen spreads and make headline prices less reliable. Brokers gain more activity while investors inherit another period where execution quality matters.

@FIREDUpWealth I bet end of 2026! But doubling chip volume would test more than demand. Foundry capacity, advanced packaging, HBM supply and customer power availability will determine how many units ship and whether revenue scales without sacrificing margins.