NEW: The current US debate about providing additional military assistance to Ukraine is based in part on the assumption that the war will remain stalemated regardless of US actions. That assumption is false. Russian advances will accelerate absent urgent American action. 🧵(1/8)
2/ The Russians are breaking out of positional warfare and beginning to restore maneuver to the battlefield because of the delays in the provision of US military assistance to Ukraine.
3/ Ukraine cannot hold the present lines now without the rapid resumption of US assistance, particularly air defense and artillery, that only the US can provide rapidly and at scale.
4/ Lack of air defense has exposed Ukrainian front-line units to Russian aircraft that are now dropping thousands of bombs on Ukrainian defensive positions for the first time in this war.
5/ Ukrainian artillery shortages are letting the Russians use armored columns without suffering prohibitive losses for the first time since 2022.
'Lack of air defense has exposed Ukrainian front-line units to Russian aircraft that are now dropping thousands of bombs on Ukrainian defensive positions for the first time in this war." There is no evidence of this. They are dropping glide bombs from far inside Russian territory.
@TheStudyofWar Lack of US support. It is a shame and also a message to other countries that the US is no longer a key country.