Jurrien Timmer Pr. @TimJurrien
Dir. of Global Macro @Fidelity . Student of history, chart maker, cyclist, cook. Helping investors break thru the clutter. Views are mine. https://t.co/0Rz7mE86lP fidelity.com Boston Joined July 2010-
Tweets114
-
Followers20
-
Following2K
-
Likes15
How booming are #earnings? Very. The incoming waves of quarterly estimates are still rising, which is the opposite of what normally happens as we approach a new quarter. For Q3 earnings, which will be reported in a month, the expected growth rate is holding in at 24% (same as last quarter).
As disturbing as the near-perfect price analog is between the semis today and the internet stocks 26 years ago (see below), the critical difference is that earnings were non-existent in 1999 and 2000 while they are booming today. So, at forward P/E of 20x, there is no valuation bubble as far as I can see. If the AI theme unravels at some point, my guess is that it will be because investors are choking on the firehose of capital raises as opposed to being deceived by earnings that don’t materialize.
Yes, AI will change our lives (for the better I trust) and down the road it may well unleash a productivity miracle that raises the economy’s non-inflationary speed limit enough to keep the world’s mounting debt burden sustainable. But until then the buildout is inflationary with an unknown return for the companies who are investing trillions into compute. The demand for capital (equity and debt) from corporates is rising at a $3.3 trillion clip. 🧵(2/2)
The energy complex is struggling through an echo of May’s severe supply stress. At $100/barrel, crude is probably not expensive enough to derail the US economy’s resilient growth, but we are now 6 months into a regime of supply chain bottlenecks, and those pressures are working their way through the inflation data at a time when affordability is already a massive concern. The hyperscalers are immune to rate hikes, but American homebuyers are not.🧵(1/2)
Triple digit oil matters because crude oil remains negatively correlated to the S&P 500, which remains positively correlated to bond prices. It’s all one trade right for now.🧵(2/2)
Bulls can make money. Bears can make money. But greedy pigs wanting to catch every top and bottom end up butchered. Greed leads to the chopping block
We should forever distrust the public health cabal after the Covid disaster - World Health, CDC, Dept of Health, local puppet physicians, the public health service I will never take a vaccine again
Several default assumptions I make in trading The next trade will be a loser Uncertainty in a daily trend usually is resolved in the direction of the weekly trend Uncertainty in a weekly trend is usually resolved in the direction of the monthly trend That I have absolutely no idea where any given market is going
At Factor Trading, established at the CBOT in 1981, when we are looking to place a bet we examine as many charts of the market as possible. In the case of Soybean Meal, we typically review about a dozen charts. The company's largest current bet is on the Dec delivery
My first law of trading is this: Don't lose money This does not mean I do not have losing trades -- almost half my trades close at a loss What it means is that I never want to be more than one or two good trades away from a new ATH NAV
What is the significance of price charts? For some novices and You Tube braggarts, charts are magic But charts are no big deal. Chart patterns are NOT NOT NOT predictive. Charts simply show what a market has been, where it is now and where the path of least resistance might be Being a chart book macro economist is just about the stupidest thing imaginable When I head someone say something like, "The copper chart is doing such and such which means that inflation is likely to do X and stocks are likely to do Y" These statements make me laugh
Roll over Beethoven ... again?
solana:So11111111111111111111111111111111111111112
This is a very significant possible longer term look at $SOL
At Factor Trading, established at the CBOT in 1981, when we are looking to place a bet we examine as many charts of the market as possible. In the case of Soybean Meal, we typically review about a dozen charts. The company's largest current bet is on the Dec delivery
My experience as a trader is that fundamentals always look most bullish at tops and most bearish at bottoms The game is rigged this way, sorry $HG_F
This is not a market awaiting new highs anytime soon. We could be looking at a long cold winter ahead $SI_F
I term these as "running" markets. During running markets there are seldom more than two or three days of corrections and the 8 DMA provides support throughout on daily chart runs
Please allow me to translate the profound message Linda is conveying. She is noting that the intraday price uptrend on Monday is very linear, such that even a very tight stop is not getting hit. Signal processing engineers would say that there is a high "signal to noise" ratio.
This is my long-term chart of $ETH It implies an eventual move to 8,600 once 5,000 is handled A claim of a "call" or simple presentation of a chart is NOT a trade People who claim "trades" need to provide proof or else the claims are BS An X post is NOT proof
Q @SarnicQ
47 Followers 308 Following
Bob G @BobG976212
77 Followers 54 Following
ZG @Petern6e
1K Followers 3K Following
Dee @Dee81903755
19 Followers 274 Following
mike garnant @MikeGarnant
936 Followers 2K Following
michael andrew @michae_andrew
50 Followers 920 Following
Céline @Clinetfm9
3 Followers 77 Following
Val McHale @MchaleVal
33 Followers 270 Following
K @kallum
57 Followers 737 Following
Santiago Mata @santiagomata
104 Followers 370 Following
Sophia @RayyanuShamaki
7 Followers 573 Following gym receptionist who actually uses the gym 💪 friendly at the desk, less friendly after hours
Vedat Bahadır @VedatBahadaxft
11 Followers 136 Following Herkesin yüz ve göz rengi farklıdır, ama şunu asla unutmayın: Herkesin göz yaşlarının rengi aynıdır😘😘😘
Nguyễn Thành Công @NguynThnhCwia
5 Followers 145 Following
Pacific Monsoon @AbhiAnand31
38 Followers 87 Following
Postal Falcon @PostalFalcon27
4 Followers 51 Following
Bentcoin @GetBentcoin
3K Followers 6K Following
Collin @collinkennedy42
60 Followers 3K Following
Shawn Kauffman @ShawnKauffman80
26 Followers 203 Following
Aaron Lucero @asonluceto
13 Followers 353 Following
brian lee @leebr96
9 Followers 476 Following
Chris Moore @Cmoore1984
157 Followers 2K Following
Tony Williams @TwoTone_22
59 Followers 487 Following
Galen @GalenDonaldson
62 Followers 2K Following
Roger Stone @RogerStone2vlw
6 Followers 136 Following
Jerr @jerryzmel
71 Followers 954 Following
Jennson @papadubzwongsta
280 Followers 1K Following
A @A2563605014115
49 Followers 358 Following
Rocinante @DuckandCava
4 Followers 42 Following
Marcus @MTomAngie
105 Followers 307 Following
Eric @raveninflag
7 Followers 48 Following
人之初，性本善 @307031366
2 Followers 42 Following
Caldwell1776 @Caldwell1776
545 Followers 1K Following
Stephen Bennett @sbej14
58 Followers 841 Following
DL @DL2376
28 Followers 132 Following
dunco037 @dunco037
101 Followers 852 Following
graham okelly @grahamokelly
51 Followers 244 Following
Adam Poore @AdamPoore296959
20 Followers 20 Following
scott berthel @berthel_sc78338
48 Followers 193 Following
陈晨 @chnchn1073210
30 Followers 169 Following
서준석 @rlaakdqld
6 Followers 16 Following
Manson Mak @MansonMak20706
2 Followers 8 Following
David Schain @davidschain
43 Followers 56 Following
Ashley Baxter @Ashley_Baxter8
174 Followers 839 Following
Grace Raymond @GraceRaymo88711
39 Followers 572 Following
Bhasker Kalva @kalvabhasker
9 Followers 13 Following
Harrison @Harrisonktz8
19 Followers 172 Following
Matthew Dallara @MD446699
26 Followers 336 Following
Matt Gunnelson @MGunnelson
58 Followers 1K Following
Jeff Keegan @jskeeg
17 Followers 918 Following
michael spector @m_spector12
31 Followers 141 Following
Brian H. @bh2024_2024
176 Followers 2K Following
Brian Ortkiese-Comer @Snook7574
55 Followers 618 Following
Chuck Scott @chascott
477 Followers 2K Following
Edward fitzgerald @edwardjohnfitz
15 Followers 505 Following
Kevin McAuliffe @KevinMcaul
57 Followers 294 Following
Harpua @Harpua44
10 Followers 68 Following
Bill Stevens @sillyB93
202 Followers 2K Following
ludo @LudoInc
103 Followers 2K Following
northernstorm @northernstorm
76 Followers 2K Following
Riley @Deputeee
42 Followers 696 Following
Erik Nord @ErikNord7
59 Followers 262 Following
Andrew Jamerson @adjamers
33 Followers 372 Following
Matt Charms @MattCharmst5wj
27 Followers 718 FollowingTrends for United States
You might like
