Tim Solley @TimSolley
Enterprise architect @ VergeOps. Evangelist of cloud computing and container orchestration with Kubernetes. Instructor with Pluralsight. vergeops.com Florida Joined November 2020-
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A low could develop south or southwest of Hawaii in coming days, with a 40% chance of becoming a tropical depression by mid-next week as it drifts west-northwestward; 48-hour odds stay near 0%, and Tropical Storms Karina and Lowell are also being watched.
A tropical wave south of southwestern Mexico now has a 40% chance of forming in 48 hours (up from 20%) and 90% over 7 days, with a depression likely as it moves west-northwestward at 10-15 mph.
Heavy rain and gusty winds are possible across the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the next several days from Dolly's remnants, while a separate Gulf system near Pensacola bears watching, both carrying 10% development odds through 7 days.
Tropical Storm Lowell, about 1,430 miles ESE of Hilo, is holding steady with 45 mph winds and could reach hurricane strength by Monday, though no coastal watches or warnings are in effect and there are no land hazards right now.
Tropical Storm Karina, packing 65 mph winds, is expected to reach major hurricane strength early next week, with dangerous surf and rip currents heading toward southwest Mexico and Baja this weekend.
Dense fog is dropping visibility below a half mile across inland Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia this morning. Conditions vary quickly over short distances, so slow down and leave extra following room if you are driving. Improvements are expected between 8 and 9 a.m.
Tropical Storm Karina, packing 65 mph winds, is tracking northwest at 12 mph about 730 miles SW of Baja California and is forecast to become a major hurricane early next week, with dangerous swells and rip currents expected along southwest Mexico and Baja this weekend.
Tropical Storm Lowell, now moving west at 7 mph with 45 mph winds, is about 1,470 miles ESE of Hilo with no watches or warnings in effect, but gradual strengthening begins Saturday with possible hurricane status by Monday.
A low pressure system may develop well south or southwest of Hawaii by mid-next week, with a 40% formation chance over 7 days, staying well offshore as it drifts west-northwestward; Tropical Storms Karina and Lowell remain active.
Heads up! The disturbance south of southwestern Mexico now has a 20% chance of forming within 48 hours, up from near 0%, with 7-day odds still high at 80% and a tropical depression likely early next week.
Heads up if you're in the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, or Puerto Rico, the remnants of Dolly may bring heavy rain and gusty winds your way, though redevelopment odds stay near 0% through 48 hrs and just 10% over 7 days.
A strong thunderstorm near Lake Jesup is pushing northeast at 20 mph toward Deltona, Sanford, Oviedo, Winter Springs, and Casselberry. Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this storm. Tree limbs could come down across the area.
Tropical Storm Lowell, now 1,520 miles ESE of Hilo, is turning westward with 45 mph winds and no watches or warnings in effect, but strengthening is expected Saturday with possible hurricane strength by Sunday night or Monday.
Tropical Storm Karina, packing 65 mph winds, could become a major hurricane by Sunday and will bring dangerous surf and rip currents to southwest Mexico and Baja this weekend, though no coastal watches or warnings are in effect.
A strong thunderstorm near Sparr and Citra is pushing north at 15 mph, bringing wind gusts around 40 mph. Cities including Fort McCoy, Hawthorne, Anthony, Micanopy, and Reddick are in the path. Those gusty winds could bring down tree limbs across the area.
Tropical Storms Karina and Lowell are active in the Eastern Pacific, while a new low south of southwestern Mexico has an 80% development chance within 7 days and a Central Pacific area near Hawaii sits at 40%.
A potential tropical system well south or southwest of Hawaii has a near 0% chance of forming in 48 hours and 40% through 7 days, with any depression staying well offshore while moving slowly west-northwestward mid-next week.
A strong thunderstorm near Ocala and Santos is pushing north at 25 mph. Wind gusts around 40 mph are possible for Ocala, Citra, Anthony, Fort McCoy, and Salt Springs.
Dolly has weakened to a tropical wave and will no longer be tracked by NHC, but its remnants near the Leeward Islands Saturday night may bring heavy rain and flash flooding, spreading to Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola Sunday and Monday.
Tropical Storm Karina, packing 50 mph winds, is likely to become a large hurricane this weekend well offshore of southwest Mexico, with dangerous surf and rip currents expected along southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula.
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