Tom @TomKlozza
Independent oil analyst, keynote speaker, co-founder of OPIS. Been covering energy markets since Jimmy Hoffa went missing. Ft. Myers FL & Farmingdale NJ Joined March 2026-
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Farmers fortunately don't have to pay state & federal excise taxes for diesel they use in tractors and combines. But they do face the most expensive harvest season on record thanks to wholesale diesel prices between $4.10-$4.30/gal across the country.
Most of the country finds fairly tepid movement in spot gasoline prices but the notable exception is the US West Coast. Prices for CA, WA, OR, NV, and AZ are up 9-15cts/gal this morning. Gasoline fetching a tidy $60/bbl over crude.
Interesting item in today's Goldman Sachs report. Bank tallies Chinese EV sales and sees those vehicles accounting for 62% of total vehicle sales. Fits the narrative of "persistent" Chinese demand losses going forward.
Inflation still ripping through the US fuel landscape. Retail gas now at $4.078/gal, up 22cts/gal in last month. Diesel now $5.427/gal, up 55cts/gal for the month and still headed sharply higher.
Seeing quite a few refiners postpone maintenance until 2027 (no doubt tied to stunning 2026 margins). CITGO today said they'd push the coker turnaround at 471k Lake Chas. plant into 2027; PBF previously pushed back work at Martinez, CA; Toledo, OH; and Chalmette, LA.
Nice quarter for CITGO -820,000 b/d run rate on 97% utilization. Net income of $936-million with adjusted EBITDA of $1.39-billion. Moved cargoes to Europe, the Caribbean and even South Africa and doubled previous record for ultra-low sulfur diesel exports from Brownsville, TX.
On the other hand, Citi today warns about "chasing strength" in gasoil cracks. The bank suggests that bullish risks are significantly priced and vulnerable to a pull back. Managed money length in gasoil is approaching a multi-year high.
For at least the third time this summer, Goldman Sachs recommends hedging geopolitical risk via buying diesel time spreads (Buy December gasoil vs. March, and bet on more backwardation). High risk of "persistent scarcity" with potential upside move of 70 percent.
For at least the third time this summer, Goldman Sachs recommends hedging geopolitical risk via buying diesel time spreads (Buy December gasoil vs. March, and bet on more backwardation). High risk of "persistent scarcity" with potential upside move of 70 percent.
While you were sleeping, Ukrainian drones hit another Russian refinery, the 135,000 b/d Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat plant in the Bashkortosan oblast. These attacks are as regular as the tides.
Pretty brisk retail fuel increases overnight. AAA regular gasoline now just above $4.07/gal with diesel topping $5.40/gal. Plenty of additional upside for diesel but gas prices may take a breather.
Crack-a-Doodle-Do! Approximate cracks for diesel today versus WTI at the close: Gulf Coast - $95.95/bbl; NY Harbor - $97.80/bbl; Midcontinent - $90.13-$90.75/bbl; Los Angeles - $102.70/bbl.
U.S. Gulf Coast refiners ran at a utilization rate of over 95% for a 17th consecutive week, a record that could be extended next week. It's why the U.S. Gulf Coast is regarded as the "cleanest dirty shirt" for gasoline and diesel worldwide.
Crude (stocks up 17.4m) will get much of the attention, but distillate crisis is building. Approaching century stock lows in New England and Lower Atlantic and exports have again hit an all-time high (1.935-million b/d). Crude numbers impacted by net imports of nearly 4-mbd.
Lots of cheerleading attached to a tame CPI report but US gas prices of $4.03/gal with diesel at $5.36/gal suggest plenty of inflation at work with more retail increases on tap later this week.
Crude build is tied to Middle East barrels moving to the Med and across the Atlantic.
API Oil Inventory Report Crude +9.072 million (exp. -500,000) Gasoline -1.531 million Distillates -596,000 Cushing +1.571 million SPR actual -6.1 million @JuliOnTwtr
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