Winter Capital @WinterCapital_
投资实习生。不断了解自己、认知世界。 推特是个人备忘录，说的大多都是错的。 winterresearch.com Joined December 2017-
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就熊市经验而言，可能持有中国资产的投资者都比巴菲特都略胜一筹。拥有丰富的熊市经验，到底是可喜还是可悲。😔
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工作日确实比周末有意思很多，主要是工作日发生的事情更多、且行情有波动、从而带来更多的研究和学习的灵感。大部分时候周末往往无事可做。
半年前一年前跑任务都基本配 opus 才够用，现在基本上 glm deepseek 就足够，token 智价比越来越高，ai 应用大爆发的时代正式来临，未来几年可能无限精彩，要紧密观察。
所有的行业都值得用 ai agent 重做一遍。 winterresearch.com/ai_app_funding…
大模型 token 定价真是经济学典范，如果能力足够强且足够稀缺、可以按照创造的价值去定价，如果不稀缺、按照边际成本去定价，可以差几十上百倍。人与人之间的差别也是如此。
现货成交量相比以前差太远了，即使山寨币筹码结构现在很好了，但拉盘没人跟啊，庄容易把自己套住，山寨难啊。紧盯基本面+流动性（美股接盘侠）最为靠谱。
以后币圈的币需要满足两个条件才能长拿，基本面好+流动性好，少一条都不行。基本面好：有用、有利润、有价值捕获、有增长；流动性好：成交量大，etf+dat 币股交易量>币安交易量。其他的慢慢归零，不会再有人接盘了，普涨牛可能不存在了、但结构性牛是存在的。
对于 personal agent，最重要的是应用的操作权限要放开给它，这决定了它的能力范围，而这点微信最牛、因为它有小程序，agent+小程序可能是王炸组合。
预测指的是只有一个结果、且不随着事情变化而变化，分析判断指的是有多个结果和对应的概率分布、且随着事情发生变化而变化。少预测、多分析判断。
市场萧条时龙头标的抢市占率、有阿尔法，市场繁荣时龙头吃贝塔也足够大了，龙头始终是最优选。
aave现在的交互逻辑变得有点大啊，有点吓人，不能直接交互合约存入、只能通过转账到某个指定地址来存入，且存入要分批上账、第一次交互的人估计以为钱打错地址了吧、挺吓人。
有了ai之后、生产的门槛大幅降低、创业公司的人数也大幅减少、对资本的需求也大幅减少，真正有能力的人一个人就可以短时间低成本build出来一个产品推向市场了，而且币圈本身流动性很好、融资方式多种多样门槛很低，VC必要性没那么大、只有很复杂且回报周期长的大项目可能还需要vc。
长端美债收益率下降的几个条件：ai 资本开支要见顶、油价要降、美国财政部要减少长期美债发行增加短期美债发行、美国其他行业经济衰退/失业增加就业减少、全球金融市场动荡要维稳。
创业者是野生动物，打工人是家禽。生存方式完全不同，思维模式自然不同。
ai 是杠杆，狗屎的杠杆是更多狗屎，黄金的杠杆是更多黄金。差距拉的越来越大，精彩的世界。
深圳核心地段的不少小区最近半年都持续上涨、从最低成交价（不是法拍价）到现在20-30%涨幅的很多，时间、涨幅、成交量、政策等各个维度看深圳完全筑底成功了，一线城市应该都差不多。
最近几个月楼市持续环比小涨+成交放量，今天深圳完全放开核心区限购，巩固企稳的势头，一线楼市筑底成功概率很高了。
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283K Followers 546 Following 一个自由的AI股票大宗期权纯二级韭菜交易员 -所有内容不构成任何投资建议-不会参与接受任何推广和广告-不会私聊任何人不碰任何人资金-任何借我名义私聊或者推广或者收费或其他地方假借助理顾问也都是诈骗，谨防上当。 推特只用作自身投资笔记，悉知。
Collector Crypt @Collector_Crypt
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Spencer Applebaum @SpencerApplebau
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Phoenix @PhoenixTrade
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Solana Payments @solanapayments
7K Followers 164 Following Everything you want to do with payments you can already do on Solana: https://t.co/5gWkBJQ6TM
Hypercall (by $SYN) @SynapseProtocol
74K Followers 262 Following Hypercall is building the options exchange for everything. Our products have over $55B in volume & 2.5M users.Trends for United States
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