XTENFOUNDER @XTENFOUNDER
let’s start to think Sanxenxo, España Joined March 2011-
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@DeItaone So there is no pullback. Thx for the info. All in.
Creo que se viene la mayor subida del año en la bolsa. Todo está preparado y puesto a placer para que ocurra. Creo que Trump está llevando a cabo la teoría del loco a la perfección. La teoría del loco consiste básicamente en hacer creer a los demás que eres impredecible y que estás dispuesto a llevar las cosas mucho más lejos de lo que llevaría una persona racional. Y creo que eso es exactamente lo que está haciendo Trump. Amenazas, aranceles, cambios repentinos de opinión y exigencias exageradas. Y ahora mismo está diciendo que no habrá paz hasta después de los midterms…. Parece que actúa sin ningún sentido, pero puede que todo ese caos sea precisamente la estrategia. Hace que gobiernos y mercados se preparen para el peor escenario posible y se posicionen en consecuencia. Después, cuando todo el mundo está cubierto o apostando a la baja, cambia el discurso, llega a un acuerdo y obliga a deshacer todas esas posiciones de golpe. Y así es como podríamos estar a punto de ver uno de los mayores squeezes de nuestra época.
Maybe Trump isn’t acting randomly. Maybe he’s deliberately making the world believe he’s capable of anything—forcing everyone to hedge against the worst-case scenario before suddenly changing direction. If that’s the strategy, we could be about to witness one of the biggest squeezes of our time.
When markets and governments believe Trump might actually follow through, they prepare for the worst and position accordingly. Then, if he suddenly backs down or announces a deal, all those defensive and bearish positions are forced to unwind at once. That’s how you create the conditions for a massive squeeze.
We’re on the verge of one of the biggest squeezes in market history. bitcoin:native $SPY $QQQ
@AaronDiazChavez @salomondrin Debes ser vidente, veremos quien tiene razón. Y espero que si fallas tu, tengas la misma boca abierta para decirlo. Puto maleducado buscafollowers.
$BTC Diario · ~75.9k Sobre MM50 (71.9k) y MM200 (70.3k). El tramo Feb→May (60.1k → 82.8k) se corrigió poco: pullback típico de continuación, no de cambio de sesgo. Mientras aguante 74.1k (Fib 0.382) y, si cede, la banda 71.4–71.9k, el mapa busca el high de mayo y Ext 1.618 ~96.8k. Invalidación: cierre diario claro bajo 68.8k (0.618) + pérdida de la MM200. No es consejo financiero.
@robchamo Es tu sueño húmedo? Sigue soñando 😂
El relato de la IA no se rompe por un titular. Se rompe cuando Tokio abre y SoftBank se deja un 13%. Si llevas Nasdaq o Mag7 en euros, el miedo de esta mañana ya está en el precio. No es consejo de inversión.
SoftBank cae un 13% en Asia tras las llamadas a frenar el desarrollo de IA.
Tras el CPI, el consumidor también se tuerce: menos ánimo y más inflación esperada a un año. Eso no fija la Fed sola, pero refuerza la idea de que el tono de precios no se enfría solo con el titular. En España suele notarse antes en los ETF de S&P y Nasdaq en euros si Wall Street aprieta el riesgo. No es consejo de inversión.
UMich preliminar de septiembre: el sentimiento del consumidor cae a 47,8 (consenso 51). Las expectativas de inflación a 1 año suben al 4,6% desde el 4,0%.
Titular en línea mes a mes, pero el año no baja: se queda en 3,4% cuando el mercado contaba con 3,3%. El núcleo mensual (0,3%) se pasa del 0,2% que marcaba el consenso; en doce meses sí encaja (2,4%). La gasolina explica buena parte del titular; el núcleo un pelín más firme de lo esperado es lo que el mercado mirará de cara al FOMC de la semana que viene. En España, el eco suele ir por los ETF de S&P/Nasdaq en euros si Wall Street mueve el tono. No es consejo de inversión.
CPI agosto: Titular: 0,4% mes / 3,4% año Núcleo: 0,3% mes / 2,4% año El mercado pedía 0,4% mes / 3,3% año en titular y 0,2% mes / 2,4% año en núcleo. Gasolina +3,9% mes (más de un tercio del alza del titular). Energía +2,1% mes. Shelter +0,3% mes.
4/4 Un solo dato no decide el año. No concluye comprar ni vender el S&P. No es consejo de inversión.
3/4 Núcleo caliente: el dinero se encarece y pesa sobre bolsa USA y BTC. Núcleo frío: alivia.
1/4 Hoy el dato es el CPI de EE.UU. El mercado mira dos cifras, no una.
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