Zan @Zaniel412

@SkullysRevenge @BrettErickson28 x.com/TankerTrackers…

TankerTrackers.com, Inc. @TankerTrackers

4 days ago

Your reactions over the years to our coverage of Iranian crude oil exports give us a good chuckle. We just love you folks. #OOTT #IranWar #Tankers

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Well Brett confirms this also, only says its 60-70% instead of 94%, and he is correct. Hell even Iranian offices have acknowledged this publicly. So im not sure where you get this notion, and to say satellite shows zero...? I have no idea where your getting this, always get multiple sources!

@TankerTrackers Hmm, if thats the case, what function are the STS transfers serving? There was reporting of smaller ships STS to larger ships, without that, what purpose does it serve? Appreciate your time.

@BrettErickson28 The answer? Antiship missle supply to Iran is the same as interceptor supply for the US. Expensive and the lowest inventory munition Iran posses. This means less value on the small tankers currently running the omani route and doing STS transfers to the valuable ones. Logic!

Never said they are out, said the lack of value is a constraint on a qualitative munition as compared to the quantitative ones you listed and I'll address as I love a well articulated view challenging mine. Drones are possible but usually in a combined assault, by themselves a ship is a terrible target from an expected shootdown ratio they would have to fire alot and hope. Ie- possible but inefficient and mass drones can be confused as likely land assault incoming. Artillery doesn't have the range, let alone the accuracy so ill leave that one alone as were talking along the Omani route, Artillery just is not an option unless the boat is anchored of Irans coast... Now, surface to surface missle are an option with way more abundance and is considerably cheaper compared to antiship missles. They did try this for about a week or 2 in the beginning and learned its woefully inaccurate compared to antiship missles. If they could do it EFFICIENTLY, they would be. So this kind of leads to my point on antiship missle use, but this one is technically an option, if it was a good one, they'd be doing it. Thinking Iran is allowing some transits today just because in early days of the war it did so, is a view no one holds. That's simply not grounded in reality, so you can keep that one as the explanation if you desire. I believe your talking about the risk iran can cause from the quantitative weapons on insurance as a threat to stop travel based on insurance denials. You have a point but its small state owned tankers nowadays running the gauntlet, but yes If commercial shipping returns its an option. (Prewar ship # include cargo, today its basically oil and LNG only) I appreciate your perspective sir. I just have a tiny bit more nuance to ground it in reality, but if shipping ever goes back to normal, if we exclude Artillery you would be absolutely correct thay it would close the strait.

@BrettErickson28 Neither did the opposite side... Incase my previous challenge led to this post as substitute for a reply see below where I explain what your short term analysis lacks. Please dazzle me

Zan @Zaniel412

3 days ago

@BrettErickson28 Something funny? Let me break it down real simple into 3 points and you can pick it apart with your 'analysis' A)Why would Iran start to increase shipping attacks if they weren't trying to prevent the ever growing bypass of their control on shipping? B) GCC Adaptation to

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Something funny? Let me break it down real simple into 3 points and you can pick it apart with your 'analysis' A)Why would Iran start to increase shipping attacks if they weren't trying to prevent the ever growing bypass of their control on shipping? B) GCC Adaptation to smaller oil tankers running the gauntlet, makes each strike less effective and Iran certainly doesn't have as large a stockpile of Anti ship missles as it does ballistic missles. (Just like US interceptor stockpiles overtime went from A factor to THE Factor -same dynamic) C) Given this, United States took away the Escalation ladder that Iran was using basically to perfection, (It was impressive and they overperformed by orders of magnitude) As a result US ships retreated further back depriving that angle of Escalation. (IMO Iran likely hit a US warship, making the lack of retaliation even more frustrating for Iran) Id love a genuine response and not a Rhetorical one like 'lol' as if I have no idea what Im talking about. Broadly we are in agreement until the federal reserve personally visited and forced over 50 countries to isolate Iran, in a way the that changes 'sanctions' into a siege Iran did no anticipate. Careful using ridicule, as thats not how an analyst handles things, thats how political commentary does tho.

Another excellent question. The escalation ladder benefits Iran as thet get pretext to hit US and GCC countries, and drain precious interceptor supply on top of damage. Without US strikes as justification, Iran loses its pretext to continue these strikes. They needed it back, so Houthis were activated and Saudi begged Trump to help, he didn't because it gives the Escalation ladder back to Iran. Now Irans previously successful strategy to inflict Asymmetrical pain as retaliation is gone, and Federal reserve got all Irans neighbors to pick a side, and now as much experience Iran had to avoid sanctions, doesn't apply to a siege. This caught Iran off guard and they are trying to recalibrate an effective approach, and an entirely new form of Economic isolation. This is just where we are now and what shifted, but Iran could adapt, escalate or consider new frameworks to break negotiation impasse as neither side is willing to budget, but Iran is worried an escalation miscalculation may backfire. The pressure makes Iran more dangerous, not less.

Excellent question. Firtly) they still attack shipping, and even with their degraded capacity, could escalate significantly and is why US Navy has pulled back out of Range, and stopped retaliation on shipping. Second, GCC Nations adapted how they attempt to bypass Iranian control with smaller tankers making the suicide run then STS transfers to larger ones. So the value of their strikes became inconsequential to the broader temporary goal to absorb these hits, and avoid retaliation. (Thats when Iran activated houthis, expecting it to draw Trump back in, and now Iran is caught off guard to new siege tactics)

@prestonstew_ This was by design. Would Trump say one day 1 he was launching a globally devastating war, to align the goals of 25/26 defense strategy, pax silica, and the Abraham accords? No, but its prewar policy that ties Iran to Venezuela, Cuba, Ecuador, EU, china, etc?

@BrettErickson28 Yes, on this point I tied it into a point you weren't making, that Iranian control is slipping, raising the risk of escalation to the most likely outcome. Apologize for this accusation, I replied to the insinuation behind it.

@MichaelAlexaki1 @BrettErickson28 Honestly, I wish you were right. Sadly, Trump is fine hurting Americans while his oil buddies rake it in.

@BrettErickson28 True, but to quote Twain; "There are 3 kinds of lies; lies, damned lies, and statistics." Most analysts are between 6-12 million bpd vs prewar of about 19 bpd. Does it show iran lost some control, objectively yes. Is 94% correct? Objectively no.

@BrettErickson28 Yes, and speaking of reality, it could undeniably be turned into pro-western propaganda to justify a humanitarian coalition or action. The same sort we all wish would be applied to isreal for Gaza. Unfair yet fact.

@BrettErickson28 Thought i might be missing something. Didn't see anything bt TT but this. x.com/TankerTrackers…

TankerTrackers.com, Inc. @TankerTrackers

4 days ago

Your reactions over the years to our coverage of Iranian crude oil exports give us a good chuckle. We just love you folks. #OOTT #IranWar #Tankers

keyboard_arrow_left Previous keyboard_arrow_right Next

23 13 353 33K 26

@BrettErickson28 What are you confused about Brett? I said you just cherry picked to support a narrative and the Iranian government themselves acknowledges pil is getting through. Square that circle

Vague Doublespeak? This cuts in both directions and says absolutely nothing of value for any argument. Rhetoric is not a good look for you. I support neither side and call balls and strikes. The point you glossed over, if nothing else, is an optics win against Iran for slaughtering their own