Chris Burch @anotherchri5
London, England Joined July 2024-
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@DiskoMashine @afneil Clinging to page counts because you can't challenge the math. You have the technical annex right in front of you: show us where the ONS input-output modelling fell down. Otherwise, you’re just an "economist" running away from an equation.
@DiskoMashine @afneil You literally asked for the link to the paper you hadn't read, and now you claim you read it? Nobody needed to read your mind; your own tweets gave the game away. Go back to that very busy day job and stop embarrassing yourself.
@davehawkinsSOA @afneil Here is the full data breakdown and chart from Carbon Brief / CREA showing how China’s coal capacity factor collapsed toward ~50% as clean power surges: carbonbrief.org/guest-post-why… New nameplate gigawatts ≠ generation.
@davehawkinsSOA @afneil Since you brought up capacity factors: China’s coal fleet utilisation is collapsing toward ~50% because clean power eats its lunch. And thinking Rosebank reduces imports shows you don't know North Sea crude is exported to global markets. Stop guessing, you’re 0 for 3 today.
@DiskoMashine @afneil That’s the summary brief. Page 15 explicitly directs you to the separate Technical Annex for the econometric modelling. Report hub: eciu.net/analysis/repor… And ONS multipliers are Leontief inverses. Staggering that someone with an econ degree missed both.
@DiskoMashine @afneil You read the summary report, not the technical methodology annex. And imagine having an econ degree and not knowing standard ONS multipliers are the Leontief inverse in applied practice. Did you think they print raw linear algebra on glossy summary pages?
@DagenhamMKIII @afneil Deeply self-aware post, Sean. Replying to a debate on ONS industrial multipliers with a minion-tier celebrity quote is a textbook demonstration of the quote itself. Thanks for illustrating the concept so vividly.
@davehawkinsSOA @afneil Calling capital investment in productive power assets a "broken window fallacy" is weapons-grade pseudo-intellectualism. And China added 300+ GW of renewables last year alone while we import foreign gas. Siri can’t fix your reading comprehension, mate.
@CrazyJamie2012 @balls_pepper @afneil "Historically" doing a lot of heavy lifting. Importing a generator doesn't erase the 100m blades cast in Hull, the subsea arrays made in Hartlepool, or the thousands of British marine engineers anchoring them to the seabed. That’s billions in real UK GVA.
@DiskoMashine @afneil You name-drop a degree and t-tests, but when asked for one specific critique of their Leontief inverse matrices or GVA weighting, you claim you have to leave for work. Pure bluster. Don't worry, the report will still be unread whenever you get back.
@DiskoMashine @afneil You definitely didn't read an 80-page econometric study. If you had, you’d cite a flaw in their SIC mapping, GVA calculations, or ONS multiplier models instead of typing playground nursery rhymes. Point out the specific methodological error.
@balls_pepper @afneil Siemens Gamesa makes blades in Hull. Vestas makes blades on the Isle of Wight. JDR makes high-voltage cables in Hartlepool. And you can’t import civil engineering, marine operations, or port logistics. Clueless parroting isn't an argument.
@strong69379 @afneil No. CBI Economics is the commercial consultancy arm of the CBI, using standard, transparent ONS input-output modeling. Keep up.
@afneil The "CBI vs CBI Economics" distinction is just you waving your hands. It’s the CBI’s commercial research unit using standard ONS input-output tables. The client paying doesn't alter the math.
@afneil Siemens Gamesa literally builds blades in Hull, Vestas makes them on the Isle of Wight, and JDR makes subsea cables in Hartlepool. More importantly: net-zero isn't just nacelles. It’s grid upgrades, EVs, and civil engineering. You reduced a £74bn sector to one part to save face
@Edessagospels @JeevunSandher So to recap: You cherry-picked a 5-year-old spring chart (April 2021) to invent a "winter" crisis. You called a 4–14 GW wind output a "total outage". You pasted Grok explaining efficiency gains while completely ignoring them to justify a fantasy 65,000 GWh battery bank
@Edessagospels @JeevunSandher That destroys your math. Delivering ~3,500 GWh of useful heat via heat pumps doesn't take 3,500 GWh of electricity—it takes ~1,000 GWh. Transport doesn't need 1,700 GWh of power; EVs need ~500 GWh. You’ve inflated actual future electrified winter demand by nearly 300%.
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