Auclid @aucllid
talks about money | make & save capital with me Joined September 2026-
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Charlie Munger thought McDonald's did a better job educating people than Harvard. He wasn't joking. In 2010, sitting next to Warren Buffett at Berkshire Hathaway's annual meeting, Munger explained why he considered McDonald's one of America's most underrated educational institutions. His argument had almost nothing to do with hamburgers. McDonald's takes people at the very beginning of their working lives. For many of them, it's their first real job. And before they move on, it teaches them things that are surprisingly difficult to teach in a classroom: show up on time, follow a system, deal with customers, take responsibility and do the job you're being paid to do. Munger had once made the same argument while speaking at a major university. He told the room: “I thought McDonald's succeeded better as an educator than the people in the university did.” His point wasn't that people stayed at McDonald's forever. It was almost the opposite. Many started there, learned how to function in a real workplace, and eventually moved on to much bigger jobs. Munger believed McDonald's deserved far more credit for that than it received. Then Buffett jumped in — and agreed. He said some of the most important lessons of his own life came when he was just 13 or 14 years old, working for a newspaper boss named Charlie Peterson. Long before Berkshire Hathaway. Long before he became one of the richest men in the world. Buffett was just a kid learning lessons from his first boss that he still remembered decades later. Munger and Buffett were making the same point from opposite ends of extraordinary careers: sometimes the place that teaches you how to work isn't a university. It's the place expecting you to show up on time tomorrow morning.
Peter Scully was an Australian crminal sentenced to life in prison plus 129 years. His victims were children. The youngest was just 18 months old. He held young girls captive, subjected them to horrific abse, filmed his crimes, and distributed child exploitation material to offenders around the world. After fleeing Australia, he operated in the Philippines until authorities finally arrested him in 2015. When they caught him, prosecutors from 60 Minutes to the FBI called him the most depraved individual they had ever encountered in over two decades of law enforcement. In the video below, a reporter from 60 Minutes Australia sits face to face with Scully inside a Philippine maximum security prison - and describes it as the most disturbing moment of her 26-year career. She refused to watch his videos before the interview. She said once you see something like that you can't unsee it. Colleagues who did watch them were visibly traumatized for days afterward. Sitting across from him was worse than she expected. He was smug. Arrogant. He smiled at her questions. When she asked about remorse he paused, looked her in the eye and said: "That's a good question. Well done." She walked through the house afterward. Up the same stairs those children were taken up. In broad daylight. With a police officer beside her. She said even that was enough to make her skin crawl. There was a shallow grave in the yard. Interpol. The FBI. The Philippine National Police. It took three major law enforcement agencies to bring him down. What finally broke the case was a single local officer following a gut instinct nobody else believed in. The reporter said she got to go home after the interview. She wasn't sure how long his smugness lasted after she left. Some people sit across from you and you understand immediately that the word "monster" was invented specifically for them.
Ted Bundy murdered at least 30 women across 7 states. He drove them in a Volkswagen Beetle - same car, same smile, same routine. The FBI called him the most organized serial killer in American history. Netflix made a $30 million series. Zac Efron played him on screen. He was executed in Florida in 1989. His little brother Rich was 12 years old, rafting rivers with him on weekends, sitting in the back seat of that same Volkswagen, thinking his big brother had everything figured out. In the video below, Rich Bundy tells the story of the moment he realized Ted had sent him home early to go murder someone. They were at the airport. Rich was upset - Ted had cancelled their plans out of nowhere, no explanation. As they waited to board, Rich glanced over at his brother's face. Ted was staring into the distance. Horrified. Disgusted. By something only he could see. Rich didn't understand it then. He does now. Ted had been loading the Volkswagen with rope, handcuffs and a crowbar before their trips together. He would pick up young women on the same roads they drove. Rich was in the back seat for some of those drives without knowing what the bag in the trunk was for. Ted sent him home that day because he felt the urges coming and didn't want his little brother in the car when it happened. That one decision broke Rich completely. He spent decades sitting alone in a camper, sometimes not leaving for three days at a time. Can't hold a normal life together. Says he's gotten used to jimmying his way through existence. Ted protected him from one night. The knowledge of what that night was destroyed the rest of his life anyway. Was Rich Bundy a victim of his brother, or did surviving that family come at a price nobody could have paid?
In 1993, Jeffrey Dahmer was 33 years old, serving 999 years inside a maximum security prison in Wisconsin. Three guards escorted him everywhere. One on each arm. Handcuffs on at all times. The most dangerous human being in America - kept alive only so he could rot in a cell. This interview was never meant to be seen. It sat in the Inside Edition archives for 30 years. In the video below, a monster wearing a human face sits across from journalist Nancy Glass and answers the one question nobody expected him to answer honestly. Are the urges still there? He paused. Then said he wished he could tell her they were gone. But no. Even locked inside concrete and steel, serving nearly a thousand years - the compulsions that turned him into a predator were still hunting inside his head. He didn't kill out of rage. Not out of hatred. He said he killed 17 men because he wanted to keep them. That the obsession grew until skulls and skeletons weren't enough. Then came cannibalism. Spoken the same way a normal man would describe a habit he couldn't shake. He asked for several breaks during filming. His hands wouldn't stay still the entire time. Fourteen months after this interview, another inmate killed him in prison. When asked what he deserved, Dahmer didn't hesitate for a second. "I deserve death," he said. Some people are beyond saving. Some things wear a human face and never were one. Was there ever a version of this story that ended differently?
In 1985, Carl Sagan sat in front of the United States Senate and described the weather of 2026. Not as prediction. As physics. Sitting across from him was a junior senator named Al Gore — who would later win the Nobel Prize, the Oscar, and build a climate investment fund worth over $36 billion repeating almost word for word what Sagan said that afternoon. Sagan opened with Venus. 470°C surface temperature. 900°F. Hot enough to melt lead. "Not because it's closer to the sun," he told the senators. "Venus actually reflects more light than Earth. It should be cooler." The reason it wasn't: carbon dioxide. A runaway greenhouse effect that turned a planet nearly identical to Earth into a furnace. Then he looked at the committee and said: we're running the same experiment here. The senators nodded politely. Then they went back to approving fossil fuel subsidies. What Sagan told Congress in 1985: Global average temperature will rise several degrees by mid-to-late next century. Local climates will redistribute. Glaciers will melt. Sea levels will rise. And the problem cannot be solved by any single nation — not even if the US and Soviet Union agreed on everything — without China. China, he said, had the world's largest coal reserves and was about to industrialize. Every sentence was correct. He also said something that got almost no coverage at the time: "The initial stages of global temperature increase — one region might benefit while another suffers." That is the sentence that explains the last 20 years of geopolitics. Canada's growing season expanding while Pakistan floods. Russia opening Arctic shipping lanes while Bangladesh disappears. The politics of climate was never going to be clean because the physics wasn't distributed evenly. Sagan mapped all of it from first principles, in a Senate hearing room, 41 years ago. The part nobody quotes He didn't say stop burning fossil fuels immediately. He said: "That has such severe economic consequences that no one will take it seriously." So he proposed something else — remove government subsidies from fossil fuels, accelerate solar, develop safe nuclear fission, and begin building international frameworks before the crisis made them impossible. That's not an environmentalist's speech. That's an economist's. Carl Sagan wrote 20 books. Cosmos was watched by 500 million people across 60 countries. He won the Pulitzer. The ideas in this testimony became the scientific foundation for a carbon market now valued at over $800 billion annually. He said one line at the end that nobody remembers. "We are all in this greenhouse together." In 1985, that was poetic. Now it's a weather report. The full testimony is free on YouTube. 17 minutes. Almost nobody outside of climate policy circles has watched it as a complete predictive model — laid out in plain language before any of it happened.
Warren Buffett disowned his granddaughter in 2006, writing that he had never accepted her as his grandchild, legally or emotionally. Buffett has largely avoided publicly discussing what happened between them. In the video below, Nicole Buffett tells her side of the story. Nicole had grown up as part of the Buffett family after Warren’s son Peter adopted her. She visited Warren in Omaha, called him Grandpa, and Warren’s wife Susan even referred to Nicole as one of her “adored grandchildren.” But being the granddaughter of one of the richest men in the world never meant living like one. Warren paid for her education, but Nicole didn’t have access to his fortune. She worked with children at Family Human Services in San Francisco and built her own life while carrying one of the most famous surnames in American business. Then their relationship fell apart after Nicole appeared in The One Percent, a documentary about wealth inequality. She later received a letter from Buffett telling her that he had not emotionally or legally adopted her as a grandchild, and that the rest of his family had not adopted her as a niece or cousin either. One detail made the letter even more painful. Buffett signed it simply “Warren.” Nicole still had a card from only a year earlier signed “Grandpa.” One of the richest men in the world had spent years as her grandfather. Then a letter told her he no longer considered himself one. Do you think Buffett had the right to draw that line, or did he take it too far? Save the video to finish Nicole’s story later, and follow for more heartbreaking stories from behind the lives of the world’s most famous billionaires.
Poker legend Phil Ivey lost to an amateur with an 83% chance of winning the hand. That amateur won $2.5 million and helped bring a generation of paying opponents into poker. In the video below, Ivey relives the moment an ace ended his tournament and explains what he was trying to hide from the cameras. “Do not show how disappointed you are, do not let the world see this.” Ten players remained in the 2003 World Series of Poker. Ivey went all in with a full house against Chris Moneymaker, an accountant who had qualified online. The final card gave Moneymaker a better full house. Ivey finished tenth for $82,700. Moneymaker went on to win the title, giving everyone watching at home a reason to believe they could beat the professionals too. New players flooded into poker. For experienced pros like Ivey, that meant more opponents with money and little experience. Poker sites grew, sponsorship deals followed, and Ivey benefited from the boom. Years later, he also admitted he should have folded earlier in the hand. He could acknowledge his mistake even though the eventual outcome helped his industry. When an amateur beats the best and everyone rushes to copy him, who really makes the money: the newcomers, the professionals waiting for them, or the casinos taking a cut either way?
David Bowie sold over 140 million records. He invented three different musical personas that each defined an entire era. Rolling Stone called him the most influential artist of the 20th century. He turned down a knighthood from the Queen of England because he didn't think he deserved it. In the mid-1970s he was also consuming so much cocaine that he later said he remembers almost nothing from that entire period. Not the albums. Not the tours. Not the interviews. This is one of those interviews. In the video below, the most creative mind in rock history sits across from a journalist and explains, completely unprompted, how to destroy a city. Black noise, he says. A specific frequency that shatters everything it hits. Available in the French Patent Office until recently for about three or four dollars. A small device could kill four people in a room. A large one could level an entire city. The interviewer stares at him. Bowie moves on to Machiavelli. Then Diane Arbus. Then Frank Zappa naming his son Moon Unit. Then his own son Zowie. Then his wife Angela's thesis on everything. Then a book about the Trans-Siberian Express he may or may not be writing. At one point he offers the interviewer a part in his next show. This is the same man who wrote Heroes in a single afternoon. Who created Ziggy Stardust, Aladdin Sane, and the Thin White Duke from scratch. Who produced Iggy Pop's two greatest albums while barely sleeping. He survived the decade. Cleaned up. Made ten more classic records. The cocaine almost took all of it. The talent was just bigger than the damage. Was he a genius who almost destroyed himself, or did the destruction make him the genius he became?
A 40 point jump in your credit score can cut your real default odds nearly in half andrew ng, stanford cs229, machine learning, logistic regression. then the technique. one formula turns raw financial history into a single number, the probability of default. then the real data. borrowers scoring 600 to 639 defaulted at 15.8 percent within two years, federal reserve data on new loans. then the cutoff. borrowers scoring just above that band, 640 to 679, defaulted at 8.9 percent, nearly half the rate, for a 40 point difference. then the top. borrowers at 720 or higher defaulted at just 1.0 percent, 41 times lower than the bottom band under 520, at 41.0 percent. watch the moment he writes the probability as a smooth curve instead of a hard yes or no line. the score was never a grade on character. it was a probability wearing a three digit number.
In 1986 a guy got kicked out of every casino in Vegas for counting cards. So he flew to Hong Kong with $180,000 and started betting on horses instead. He walked away with almost $900 million. It was Bill Benter. He realized horse racing was just another counting problem same math, more moving parts. He and a partner built a computer model that estimated the true odds of each horse. If his numbers showed an edge, he bet. If not, he skipped it. That’s the whole trick: Expected value. EV = p · b − (1 − p) Only bet when the probability of winning × the potential payout is greater than the chance of losing. What’s even crazier is that Benter once gave a 45-minute lecture explaining the math behind his system. That recording was never supposed to become public. And almost nobody knows it exists. This is the lecture that professional bettors and hedge fund analysts studied. The answer is in this video.
Sam Altman invited Peter Thiel to Stanford to teach a lesson most entrepreneurs still ignore. His message? “Competition is for losers.” In his famous 2014 Stanford lecture, Thiel explained why the biggest businesses don’t win by fighting competitors. They win by building something nobody else can offer. Stop asking how to beat your competition. Ask yourself: What can I build that makes competition irrelevant? Because the goal isn’t to win the same game. It’s to create a game nobody else can play.
Steve Jobs literally predicted the iPhone, the Internet, AI and the next 50 years of technology in a single speech from 1983:
The anecdote is real and well-documented: Joel Greenblatt ran a weekly investing class for ninth graders from Harlem, had them guess the count of jelly beans in a jar twice. Once called out loud (avg. guess: 850) and once written privately on cards (avg. guess: 1,771, against an actual count of 1,776). His line: “the stock market is actually the second guess.” Two independent write-ups both quote this from the same talk, “Distinguished Speaker Series: Joel Greenblatt,” a CFA Society Chicago luncheon from December 5, 2018. But I could not pull its actual captions or transcript this session, so I can’t personally confirm the exact wording and timecode from the footage itself, only from two secondary blog paraphrases. That fails rule 4 (“quotes are verbatim or they do not ship... pulled from a transcript or the frames that were actually read”), the same wall I hit on Griffin and Soros earlier in this session.
two gas stations across the street can't stop destroying their own margins ben polak, yale university, econ 159 game theory, lecture 1. then the baseline. quebec city, over 300 gas stations, margins averaging 5.64 cents per liter in the late 1990s, about 9 percent of the price. then the collapse. a price war starting january 2000 drove those margins from 5.64 cents to nearly zero, and it lasted almost a full year. then the reason nobody blinks first. pricing just 2 cents above a neighboring station could cost a station 36 percent of its volume. then the transfer. both stations do better holding price high together, but each is individually better off undercutting, so undercutting is what happens. watch the moment he calls undercutting 'bad for the firm, bad for industry profit.' the price war was never bad strategy. it was the dilemma working exactly as predicted.
Your revenue forecast runs on an equation that has zero exact solutions gilbert strang, mit 18.06 linear algebra, lecture 16, projection matrices and least squares. then the problem. three months of data, reaching 1, 2, 2. no straight line passes through all three, zero exact solutions exist. then the fix. solve the normal equations, 3c plus 6d equals 5, 6c plus 14d equals 11. answer, d is one half, c is two thirds, one best line. then the leftover. that line predicts 7 sixths, 5 thirds, 13 sixths. actual was 1, 2, 2. the miss never hits zero, only its smallest size. then the transfer. that equation, a transpose a times x equals a transpose b, runs every model forecasting revenue, pricing risk, or reading gps. watch the moment he calls this equation the most important one in statistics. the line was never going to hit every point. the math was how close it could still get.
The fund that just beat the market was always going to stop beating it peter kempthorne, mit 18.s096, mathematics with applications in finance, lecture 6. then the base case. of large cap funds top quartile as of december 2022, zero percent stayed there two years later. pure chance predicts 6.25 percent. then the longer window. funds top quartile as of december 2020 did worse, not better. not one stayed top quartile four years later. then the exception. small cap funds held up slightly better, 6 percent of the 2022 top quartile stayed there two years on, down from 10 the year before. then the transfer. buying last year's best fund bets against a pattern that erases itself faster than random chance would. watch the moment he shows a fitted line pulling extreme points back toward the average. the hot streak was never a trend. it was the part of the data closest to disappearing.
A bbb credit rating is a coin that only remembers its last flip john tsitsiklis, mit 6.041sc, probabilistic systems analysis, lecture 16, markov chains. then the matrix. s&p's own data, 1981 to 1996, a bbb company stays bbb 82.49 percent of the time in one year. nothing further back matters. then the slide. 5.81 percent of bbb companies get downgraded within that year, to bb, b, or ccc. real risk, ignored by most bond buyers. then the default. outright default inside that year hits only 0.17 percent of bbb companies, 34 times rarer than a plain downgrade. then the transfer. a markov chain predicts next year from this year's grade alone. the real risk in a bbb bond is the slide, not the cliff. watch the moment he shows the next state depends only on where it stands now, not how it got there. the rating was never a cliff edge. it was always a slope, graded in percent per year.
The 'optimal' portfolio markowitz built can't survive contact with real prices robert shiller, yale university, econ 252, financial markets, lecture 4. then the promise. feed in expected returns, variances, covariances, and one frontier gives the best mix for any risk level you pick. then the catch. those inputs are guesses. shiller says it himself, people 'could argue with my estimates of the expected returns.' then the real damage. a 1993 study found errors in those return guesses are 11 times as damaging as errors in variances, 21 times as bad as covariances. then the transfer. a small miss on the hardest number to forecast wrecks the 'optimal' weights more than a sloppy guess on risk ever could. watch the moment he says you could argue with his return estimates, but not with the theory. the frontier was never wrong. it just trusted the one number nobody can actually know.
Your revenue forecast runs on an equation that has zero exact solutions gilbert strang, mit 18.06 linear algebra, lecture 16, projection matrices and least squares. then the problem. three months of data, reaching 1, 2, 2. no straight line passes through all three, zero exact solutions exist. then the fix. solve the normal equations, 3c plus 6d equals 5, 6c plus 14d equals 11. answer, d is one half, c is two thirds, one best line. then the leftover. that line predicts 7 sixths, 5 thirds, 13 sixths. actual was 1, 2, 2. the miss never hits zero, only its smallest size. then the transfer. that equation, a transpose a times x equals a transpose b, runs every model forecasting revenue, pricing risk, or reading gps. watch the moment he calls this equation the most important one in statistics. the line was never going to hit every point. the math was how close it could still get.
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