bccc @bcb_cbcd
Joined February 2015-
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夜航日记 10/21：今天spcx财报分数90，info导数36。这是夜盘数据。这个很positive。带动ai硬件链反弹。这是此轮导数为负值后第一次转正。
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#夜航日记 2026-10-19 asml，tsm的info导数，都不好，没什么太多update。周末大家不担心semi的基本面，认为是ir vol =＞fx，credit=＞cds=＞neocloud =＞ai demand。这个传递链。
夜航｜10/15 信息导数看 ASML：昨晚翻红，少数的红色。 TSM 财报超预期；大盘巨差下开盘大跌后回收到 −2%。 综合：这里有约 50% 可能是底部。
夜航｜10/14 ASML 业绩中性，股价迄今微跌 — Info 导数意义不大，且不在安全带上下沿。 另一 Info：CPI 小小超预期偏高 = 今日科技股下跌元凶（AOE 负面）。 下沿探针 WDC 亦 −3%，不是站稳。
今天 INTC 和 MRVL，首先止跌翻红了。这个下沿的观察，是看首先反转站稳的标的。这里好像没那么多 Info 可以看。
从此日起，用人类视觉做夜航系统日记。 真 Info： 1）MU 9/30 财报 — 横盘一周以上，业绩利好而不涨 → 负 Info 导数 2）MRVL 10/6 投资者日 — 硬 Info，后 4 天不突破 → 负导数 二者均为股价（相对）高位减仓指标。 假 Info 只是下跌的伴奏：Toshiba 扩产；CXMT DDR 技术突破；Terafab 与 TSMC 合作（而非 INTC）；台媒称 CPU 涨价 10%。
Info（2026-10-02）：东芝 TIP Laguna 近线 HDD 扩产；FY2027 产能约 2× FY2025；媒体称约 ¥60B / ~$380M。 ΔP（近线 HDD 供给纪律 · 利空大跌高敏感）： • Day1：WDC −10.22%（415.29），STX −10.21%（848.99）；相对 10/01 高点 462.56 / 945.57 直接砸穿 • 至 10/12：WDC 386.94（相对 10/01 −16.4%），STX 753.25（−20.3%） • 注：10/05 反弹后 10/06 再杀，部分混入 TDK 磁头并购传闻（STX vs 东芝），不宜全归因于扩产 Info Care axis：Nearline HDD supply discipline。
长鑫 CXMT 4F² 竞品叙事 + AVGO「赌场」/AI CapEx 可持续性质疑同日升温。 价格反应（Info → ΔP）： • 韩国：KOSPI −5.47%，SK Hynix −10.09%，三星 −7.38%（连跌第 5 日） • 美股盘前存储：MU ~−2.8%，WDC ~−3.5%，SNDK/STX ~−3%，SKHY ~−5%；NVDA 较轻 ~−0.8% 两条轴并行：内存竞争 ∥ AI 开支可持续性。
$WDC 在6个月低点，附近有toshiba增产利空，最近1周站稳390一带。昨天疑似强势（他是少数涨的硬件股），这里是反转点吗？
$PLTR 高盛说低估，提供目标价到230. 这是热度高的标志吧。若210附近没法新高（1周内），则是顶部了
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