Jim Bianco | Personal @biancorexerch
Macro investment research at https://t.co/XgNagwQYOQ Our total return index is at https://t.co/XGvF5FuKZY The ETF WTBN tracks our Index. biancoresearch.eth biancoresearch.com Chicago, IL Joined October 2011-
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Mid-year update We review the performance of the Bianco Research Total Return Index and the ETF that tracks it, the WisdomTree Bianco Fund (WTBN). Also, the fair value of bonds and why Trump's demand that the Fed cut rates can lead to higher LT yields. biancoadvisors.com/2025-mid-year-…
What I Learned in My First Year Managing Fixed-Income * Performance Review * ETFs Are Eating the World * Actively Managed Bond Funds Work! * Investing Is More Than Momentum * Valuations Always Matter * Bonds Are No Longer Crash Insurance biancoadvisors.com/what-i-learned…
Why the Moody’s downgrade of the US SHOULD BE a nothingburger —- In August 2011, S&P went first and downgraded the US from AAA to AA+. All hell broke loose. The reason hell broke loose was a lot of derivative contract, loan agreements, investment directives and the like…
Why the Moody’s downgrade of the US SHOULD BE a nothingburger —- In August 2011, S&P went first and downgraded the US from AAA to AA+. All hell broke loose. The reason hell broke loose was a lot of derivative contract, loan agreements, investment directives and the like…
Follow up, the S&P downgrade in 2011 left the US Split-Rated AAA. So, contracts written saying no AAA... The US was still AAA By the time Fitch downgraded in 2023, when the US became AA+, the contracts were rewritten.
📢 New Episode Out Now: U Got Options – From the @CBOE Floor 🎥 Watch: hubs.li/Q03mpTTr0 I sit down with Jim Bianco of @biancoresearch for a deep dive into macro trends, inflation, policy risk, and the future of markets. 🔍 Topics include: • The roots of modern populism…
“70% chance of a recession. So why aren’t we talking about a rate cut this afternoon?” - @biancoresearch Inflation is still calling the shots, and this time, the shape of a slowdown may look very different. 🎙️Full episode: U Got Options – From the @CBOE Floor…
1/3 WHO IS PAYING THE TARIFFS? -- Wall Street's median estimates for core PPI are for it to rise by 0.3%. Excluding trade, the same amount, 0.3%. Yesterday's CPI report showed tariffs had little impact on prices. The street expects the same to be said about producer prices.
2/3 Tariffs rose from $8.17B in March to $15.63B in April, or an extra $7.5B in tariffs was collected in April. Total imports into the United States are around $400B/month. $7.5B of extra tariff revenue means total import prices rose about 1.7% just in April.
3/3 If it's not in consumer or producer prices, who paid the $7.5 billion extra tariff revenue? Two choices: 1. Importers' margins were squeezed badly in April and will continue to be squeezed. 2. The exporters (read: Chinese) paid it. Tariffs are a tax increase. And instead…
Tesla up 50% since the Walz bottom
Tesla up 50% since the Walz bottom
10 days ago
A terrible injustice has finally been corrected! —- MLB commissioner Rob Manfred has posthumously removed the disgraced Cincinnati Reds legend and the outfielder caught up in the Black Sox scandal from the permanently ineligible list wsj.com/sports/basebal…
ETH has risen 50% in the last week (bottom panel). The last time this happened was January 7, 2021, in the middle of the $GME mania. One of the leaders of this period was @stoolpresidente. Could we be repeating this period????
ETH has risen 50% in the last week (bottom panel). The last time this happened was January 7, 2021, in the middle of the $GME mania. One of the leaders of this period was @stoolpresidente. Could we be repeating this period???? https://t.co/zdVrTHWkXl
The S&P closed today up 8bps on the year.
The 10-year yield is back above 4.50%
The market disagrees
The market disagrees https://t.co/06a5tHMgKW
Every major economic release since May 1st (including the FOMC meeting) has REDUCED the probability of a Fed cut (vertical dotted lines). The next FOMC meeting with a better than 50% probability of a cut is now September 17 (currently 60%). Less than two weeks ago, this…
Was a joy to have @biancoresearch on the Net Interest Extra podcast to discuss what's happening in markets netinterest.co/p/the-fourth-t…
*S&P 500 RISES 0.7%, ON TRACK TO ERASE 2025 DECLINES
The 90-day rush to import as much as possible began today. (To get as many goods as possible into the country in case Chinese tariffs go back to 145% after this reprieve ends.) x.com/typesfast/stat…
The 90-day rush to import as much as possible began today. (To get as many goods as possible into the country in case Chinese tariffs go back to 145% after this reprieve ends.) x.com/typesfast/stat…
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