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当指标接近100%时，说明几乎所有山寨币价格都高于其 200 日均线 。这表明市场过热，通常与比特币周期顶部一致。 相反，当该指标接近 0%时，意味着大多数山寨币低于 200 天日均线，标志着入场机会。 目前指标只有24，可以等待一个小型山寨季。
你需要多少比特币实现财务自由退休？ 未来，你只需要拥有0.21枚比特币，你就会成为前百分之一的比特币持有者，这足够你过上精英阶层的生活。 目前，0.21枚比特币价值23000美元，约合17万人民币，10年内预计这个数量会上涨10倍以上，超过30年的普通职工退休金。
比特币市占率接近颈线，这里可能会出现两种情况 1️⃣形成快速突破并开启山寨季 2️⃣遇到抵抗，重新反弹至高位后再次下跌形成山寨季(类似20年9月) 如果是情形一，那么本轮山寨季会在Q4开启，如果是情形二，山寨季将延迟三到六个月。 在比特币市占率仍在6成的情况下，押注优质山寨而不是比特币胜率会更高。
坏消息:历史上9月是比特币表现最差的月份。❌ 好消息:九月只剩2天，随后的10月和11月都是比特币表现强势的月份。✅ 10年到25年，10月比特币月均回报率27.3%，11月更是达到惊人的38.5%。
比特币本轮牛市结束了吗？我的答案是没有。我们本轮尚未进入banana zone，没有抛物线上升和散户涌入，这些都是周期尚未见顶的证据，我们处在一个调整区，风险偏好较高的朋友可以等待最后的狂热和最肥的鱼尾行情，风险偏好较低的朋友现在退出也是不错的选择。
全球M2仍然处于不断上升的趋势之中，在这个趋势逆转之前，不断的buy the dip可以大大拉低买入成本，红圈处的买点几乎都是阶段性低点。目前，我们再次进入一个低点。
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以黄金计价的比特币目前已较8月份创下的历史高点下跌20%。换句话说，相对于黄金，比特币正处于熊市。在地缘动荡期，人们似乎更愿意相信黄金数字黄金。由于美元继续贬值，黄金价格下跌20%比美元价格下跌10%更值得关注。
黄金和比特币都具备强大的避险功能，黄金可以被视为比特币的先行指标，一般来说当黄金出现抛物线上涨后，流动性会溢出到比特币，中间时长大约为100天。
比特币在0.618反弹位置（ $118500 附近），再次掉头向下，形成标准的lower high，短期可能有回调风险。 考虑到比特币时间周期，可以适当减仓保住利润。
加密市场的四阶段 1️⃣比特币区 比特币率先上涨，市占率不断提高 2️⃣转换区 比特币向山寨转换，流动性溢出 3️⃣山寨区 山寨上涨 4️⃣稳定币区 加密下跌，持有稳定币避险 目前我们处于山寨期，距离稳定币区还有一段距离，时间周期上Q4行情无忧。
比特币已经处在低波动状态超过两个月了，我们似乎进入了一场非典型性牛市，高位盘整更可能是因为我们并没有在真正的“高位”，而且处于牛市早期阶段。 本轮牛市尚未像之前几轮那样出现抛物线式的上涨。
以太坊刚刚突破了长达八年的下跌趋势线，并形成黄金交叉。 $ETH vs $BTC 会在接下来形成超长期反转，万物上链的趋势中的下一时代核心资产大概率会是以太坊。
BNB破千，成为第一个四位数的平台币，从17年的0.15美元到25年的1000美元，8年时间价格翻了667倍。算上lauchpool和airdrop收益已超千倍。
全球M2刚刚创造了历史新高。考虑到美联储昨晚的鸽派言论，M2继续上行将是必然趋势。 美股和比特币尚未完全反映目前市场的M2数量，牛市继续会是大概率事件。
比特币成为全球共识货币的进程已经不可阻挡，法币衰败的势头也一样。🌎 目前比特币仅占全球货币的百分之一左右，随着法币向硬通货的价值转移，比特币还有一段很长的成长之路。
之前的周期中，SMA模型均线达到上一轮牛市峰值后，牛市达到顶部。 目前，该均线的价格为 58,170 美元，距离69,000 美元上轮顶部还有一段距离，这这意味着我们可能还有几周的时间。
现在是确定性的Altseason，但你的Alts还没有涨。 目前牛市进行了前三个阶段，分别是 1️⃣比特币季 2️⃣以太坊季 3️⃣大市值季 第4️⃣阶段的全面山寨季尚未开始。 但是一个残酷的事实是，很多Alts可能永远不会再涨，资本是有选择性的，绝大多数没有技术，没有用户，没有空间的Alts几乎没有重新上涨的可能。
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