Bob's Payment Stock Substack @bobspaysubstack
Former analyst and portfolio manager. Fundamental buy-and-hold investor. Talking stocks and markets. Politics and golf occasionally. This is not advice. bobhammel.substack.com Columbia, IL Joined April 2025-
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PayPal $PYPL getting smacked for something...and the sky is blue.
If I add my estimate for U.S. BNPL GMV and liquidity product originations to U.S. credit card volume, it raises the pro-forma growth rate by ~1%, suggesting #FinTechs are playing a key role sustaining consumer spending growth in the U.S. $XYZ $CHYM $DAVE $PYPL $AFRM $KLAR
$BILL calling for: - 12-15% core revenue growth in FY'26 vs. 16% in FY'25 - AOI of $240-270M in FY'26 vs. $240M in FY'25 - Still an $80M GAAP operating loss in FY'25 Company needs to grow faster or make money, but can't continue to do neither.
Bought back the shares I sold and then a little bit more Intuit $INTU this morning. In a market defined by quality selling at unreasonably high prices, I think $INTU is among the highest quality, now selling at a reasonable price. Long $INTU.
Bought back the shares I sold and then a little bit more Intuit $INTU this morning. In a market defined by quality selling at unreasonably high prices, I think $INTU is among the highest quality, now selling at a reasonable price. Long $INTU.
Guide looks in-line(ish), stock's down about 5% after hours. At about 30x LTM FCF. Not terrible, but still not super attractive. We'll see where the dust settles. $INTU
Guide looks in-line(ish), stock's down about 5% after hours. At about 30x LTM FCF. Not terrible, but still not super attractive. We'll see where the dust settles. $INTU
Intuit $INTU reporting after the close. Took a little off the table above $800, would love to see it pull back further. $700 is still a little bit too rich for my blood.
Undeniable that the trend favors Square $XYZ in food and beverage - Toast's $TOST GPV spread vs. Square has fallen from +18% to +8% over the past 8 quarters.
Today, I'm realizing a personal dream of mine - I'm installing two zoysia tee boxes in my backyard. Lots of chipping, pitching and kid driving range time in my future!
Jack Henry $JKHY looking more reasonable here. But why buy it in the low 20x when you can have Fiserv $FI at 12.5x? My position in Fiserv $FI is up to 450 shares.
Jack Henry $JKHY guiding to 6.4% organic revenue growth (midpoint) in FY26 (similar to FY25) is somewhat disappointing. GAAP EPS guide is meaningless w/just $16MM in deconversion fees assumed for FY vs. $20.5MM in Q4. Interested to see stock trade tomorrow. Guessing down?
Every angle of Payne’s Valley tells a different story. Step onto the course, and you’ll see why one photo will never be enough.
Paycor $PYCR and Dayforce $DAY look to be off the board. Are Paycom $PAYC and Paylocity $PCTY next?
My Toast $TOST 10-year financial summary: bobhammel.substack.com/p/toast-inc-to…
Toast $TOST is ranked #5 on my list of the Top 10 Businesses in Payments and #FinTech. Great business, but a valuation to match. Even under my aggressive assumptions, $TOST looks slightly overvalued today. Article link 👇 bobhammel.substack.com/p/toast-inc-to…
$GPN the greenest name on my screen for the past two days
Klarna's $KLAR U.S. GMV was +41% in June!
Klarna's $KLAR U.S. GMV was +41% in June!
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