Bob's Payment Stock Substack @bobspaysubstack
Former analyst and portfolio manager. Fundamental buy-and-hold investor. Talking stocks and markets. Politics and golf occasionally. This is not advice. bobhammel.substack.com Columbia, IL Joined April 2025-
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Agreed
If it’s 14-14 the U.S. must claim victory!
U.S. has done everything they’ve needed to do so far. Still a long way to go, but they’ve got a shot.
Fiserv is still arguably one of the best opportunities in the market - 9% TTM Buyback yield - 13x P/FCF (lowest valuation this decade) - Wide moat in some segments with 99% retention rate, narrower moat in other segments like Clover I overall still like the set up here $FI
Good interview - @emcross23 at $XYZ acknowledges Cash App complexity impedes investor confidence in growth sustainability. I think $XYZ would be well served by consistently disclosing instant transfer revenue, interchange revenue and Cash App Card purchase volume, and Borrow…
Good interview - @emcross23 at $XYZ acknowledges Cash App complexity impedes investor confidence in growth sustainability. I think $XYZ would be well served by consistently disclosing instant transfer revenue, interchange revenue and Cash App Card purchase volume, and Borrow…
Bottom line: I still believe #Payments is an attractive area to invest. Some very good companies being cast aside. Tape action has been dreadful. Feels awful, but I’m staying the course. Would love to see some more broad-based insider buying. I’m long $V $GPN $FI and $FOUR.
Healthcare action continues to be just awful. What breaks the cycle? I’m not sure, but I do believe these are good businesses with attractive long-term prospects and reasonable valuation. Continue to accumulate $ZTS and $TMO
Accenture $ACN did almost $11B of FCF in FY25, more than a 7% yield on its current market cap. $6.5B of net cash and a 2.75% dividend yield (after expected 10% increase). I think the threat of AI disruption is real but it's certainly a cheap stock.
A response to the concerns I voiced earlier on $FOUR. Thank you @rookisaacman - up to the market to decide now. As I said earlier, I am long $FOUR
A response to the concerns I voiced earlier on $FOUR. Thank you @rookisaacman - up to the market to decide now. As I said earlier, I am long $FOUR
Some thoughts on Shift4 $FOUR (I am long but increasingly cautious on the name): 1. $FOUR is one of the worst offenders in terms of earnings add-backs. Over the LTM, 21.5% of $FOUR's adjusted EBITDA was from SBC, acquisition, restructuring, integration, FX and other…
#Payments has increasingly turned into a 'shoot first, ask questions later' space. I'm tired of getting shot 🤣 $FI $GPN $FOUR $XYZ $TOST $PYPL
My $BILL 10-year forecast 👇 bobhammel.substack.com/p/bill-holding…
With $BILL trading at <4x FY26E revenue, a potential sale would likely fetch a nice premium. The seven #B2BPayments deals I looked at produced a range of 5-12x on P/R. At the low end (5x) would imply >$8B for $BILL, nearly 30% higher. bobhammel.substack.com/p/bill-holding…
I'll reiterate my prior opinion that a heightened competitive environment for merchant acquiring (whether real or perceived) catalyzed by $XYZ Square is good for no one, including $XYZ. $TOST is an expensive stock. I'd like to see it down to the mid-$30s before I'm interested.
Although I stay on the sidelines because I view $BILL as slightly overvalued based on current trajectory, the potential optionality from activist involvement makes it a stock to watch and possibly a speculative investment opportunity—at the right price. open.substack.com/pub/bobhammel/…
New $XYZ @Square reader for @boyscouts Turning cash into digital payments
Nothing like it. 👌🏻
In 2021, Meta $META did nearly $40B of FCF. TTM FCF is $50B. Happy to buy the stock in the $100-200 range during 2022, and sell it today near $800.
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