Brian Lawrence @data_brian

Florida, USA Joined August 2018

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Brian Lawrence @data_brian

2 years ago

@TylerPhelps16 @CFBNerds If presnap motion is a problem for Tennessee's defense Kalen DeBoer's offense will be a nightmare for them.

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Brian Lawrence @data_brian

2 years ago

@colecubelic How many of the 8 are Florida?

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Brian Lawrence @data_brian

2 years ago

@CFBdownSOUTH @cfbxpert @Ncdaley @DylanEveryday @CFBNerds How can you be the standard over a team you're 1-4 against during the time period in question?

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@CFBNerds 2003 VT vs TAMU. Played in the leftovers from hurricane Isabell. I don’t remember if the game itself was any good, but I do remember the rain blowing sideways in the stadium. It was a blast.

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Brian Lawrence @data_brian

2 years ago

@ShelbyMSU13 @MikeNellis @MailePRMedia @KamalaHarris If you knew basic economics you'd understand that who primarily benefits from the credit is determined by the elasticity of supply. If they stimulate construction and you live in an area with fewer barriers to construction, you won't be able to increase the price by $25k.

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Brian Lawrence @data_brian

2 years ago

@LinkofSunshine Georgism for the win.

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Brian Lawrence @data_brian

2 years ago

@AngEngland @LauraRbnsn I have ADHD and I used to self-medicate with caffeine. It has it's own set of downsides and I wouldn't recommend it as a long-term solution. There are newer ADHD medications that can be taken as needed and are much more effective.

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Brian Lawrence @data_brian

2 years ago

@monsterdave11 @NateSilver538 Partisan ID isn't a factor Marist used and generally wouldn't be used by reputable firms. Some use it in likely voter models. "The samples were then combined and balanced to reflect the 2022 American Community Survey 5-year estimates for age, gender, income, race, and region."

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Brian Lawrence @data_brian

2 years ago

@monsterdave11 @NateSilver538 As for the Pew data, I'm not sure where that comes from, but if you look at actual voter registration data for the states that have partisan registration it's 38.28% D and 30.35% R. So +8 D.

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Brian Lawrence @data_brian

2 years ago

@monsterdave11 @NateSilver538 They didn't choose to oversample Ds. They normally do RDD. The only way to get a poll out this fast was to use aggregated online research panels. These are typically biased since they are self-selected. It could be as simple as Ds are currently more motivated to answer polls.

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Brian Lawrence @data_brian

2 years ago

@RealCarlAllen @Politics_Polls @QuinnipiacPoll We already have an example of a 20+ point swing from '88-'92. I would not discount the impact of COVID on this cohort. Many lost senior years, graduations, proms, etc. Many blame Ds for that since those states had the longest, harshest school closures and lockdown measures.

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Brian Lawrence @data_brian

2 years ago

@AndrewLaddusaw @CurdFergeson @philvischer If they feel like they're enemy #1 they have a weird way of showing it, and it's objectively the case that cuts to Saudi and Russian production is responsible for prices remaining high despite massive increases in US production.

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Brian Lawrence @data_brian

2 years ago

@AndrewLaddusaw @CurdFergeson @philvischer Beyond that, where will this large drop in fuel prices come from? The US already produces more oil than any country in history, but prices are high because other producers have cut production. It's a global market and we can't force other countries to produce more.

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Brian Lawrence @data_brian

2 years ago

@AndrewLaddusaw @CurdFergeson @philvischer So a couple of things here. Fuel prices are far more volatile than food prices. Even if you got a very large drop in fuel prices that wouldn't be enough to offset losing 40% of the labor force and the additional tariffs.

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Brian Lawrence @data_brian

2 years ago

@AndrewLaddusaw @CurdFergeson @philvischer How are food prices going to come down? USDA estimates that ~40% of farmworkers lack legal immigration status. Additionally, many farming inputs such as fertilizer and machinery are imported. The idea that food prices would go any way but up under this plan is pure fantasy.

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Brian Lawrence @data_brian

2 years ago

@CFBNerds 3rd and Golding was so painful.

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Brian Lawrence @data_brian

2 years ago

@whostolemyPSN @archiegh @vulpes1 @brad_polumbo The California Attorney General runs the California Department of Justice, which is enormous. The Governor of Indiana is one of the weakest governorships. Almost all of their executive agencies are run by independently elected cabinet members.

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Brian Lawrence @data_brian

2 years ago

@RachelBitecofer There. Are. No. Ballot. Deadlines. That. Have. Passed. nass.org/sites/default/…

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Brian Lawrence @data_brian

2 years ago

@_fat_ugly_rat_ This is wildly incorrect. Here is a link to a summary of the relevant state laws. Political party nominees don't have to have their names submitted until after the conventions. Most states require less than 90 days' notice. nass.org/sites/default/…