David Settle, CMT @davidsettles47
Market Technician. Active Trader. Passionate about Investor Education. Part-time coach. Father to FOUR boys. Co-founder of MarketScholars marketscholars.com USA Joined July 2012-
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12/22/23 - View last night's #MarketOutlook for 2024 from @MarketScholars here: wp.me/p9upfx-dy9 Discussed: $SPY $IWM $VIX $DIA $QQQ $EEM $EFA $GLD $TLT $USO $UUP $BTC $XLE $XLU $XLF $XLI $XLB $XLV $XLK $XLY $XLC $DIS 🐂📈 #MerryChristmas #HappyNewYear
Eventually, this yield spread will go from -150bps to +100bps or more. What will happen to $SPX when it does? Can anyone say with a straight face that we've achieved a "soft landing" or "avoided a recession" until this spread gets back to +100bps? The bull case for 2024 is the…
If we would have rallied more gradually off the October 27 low and finished the year up 12-15%, then we could feel confident $SPX would finish up 10% or more again in 2024 - especially if the Fed doesn't cut rates until late in the year at the earliest and the yield curve stays…
If we would have rallied more gradually off the October 27 low and finished the year up 12-15%, then we could feel confident $SPX would finish up 10% or more again in 2024 - especially if the Fed doesn't cut rates until late in the year at the earliest and the yield curve stays…
It's been 49 years since the end of the 1973-1974 bear market. There's been 28 years (or 57% of the time) of 10% or more gains for $SPX. 15 of those 28 were 20% or more. This year currently ranks 14th on the list of 28. So, a strong year but not an outstanding year in context…
One reason the returns for $SPY has been so strong this calendar year is because it finished 2022 near its lows of the year. This year, we are closing near the highs (as we normally do). But, we're not just closing at 52-week highs, we're closing at EXTREME parabolic highs:…
Most of these 99th percentile $SPX rallies came off of extreme washout lows (in terms of either extreme levels of volatility, above-average volume, higher average ranges and/or strong levels of negative breadth). In this case, we had ONLY bad breadth but never dipped below -100…
Most of these 99th percentile $SPX rallies came off of extreme washout lows (in terms of either extreme levels of volatility, above-average volume, higher average ranges and/or strong levels of negative breadth). In this case, we had ONLY bad breadth but never dipped below -100…
So, in 2023 we did NOT get rate cuts and actually got 2 more HIKES. Also, the yield spread stayed inverted. As a result, strong bullish 2023. IMO, if we are to have a bullish 2024 for $SPX (especially since we're going into the new calendar year on a rare parabolic move), we need…
So, in 2023 we did NOT get rate cuts and actually got 2 more HIKES. Also, the yield spread stayed inverted. As a result, strong bullish 2023. IMO, if we are to have a bullish 2024 for $SPX (especially since we're going into the new calendar year on a rare parabolic move), we need…
ICYMI: 12/18/23 - View last night's #MarketOutlook from @MarketScholars here: wp.me/p9upfx-dx9 Discussed: $SPY $IWM $VIX $DIA $QQQ $EEM $EFA $GLD $TLT $USO $UUP $BTC $XLE $XLU $XLF $XLI $XLB $XLV $XLC $XLY $XLK $NVDA 🐂📈
12/18/23 - View last night's #MarketOutlook from @MarketScholars here: wp.me/p9upfx-dx9 Discussed: $SPY $IWM $VIX $DIA $QQQ $EEM $EFA $GLD $TLT $USO $UUP $BTC $XLE $XLU $XLF $XLI $XLB $XLV $XLC $XLY $XLK $NVDA 🐂📈
Here's another interesting chart from @charliebilello 📈
Here's another interesting chart from @charliebilello 📈
ICYMI: 12/15/23 - View last night's #MarketOutlook from @MarketScholars here: wp.me/p9upfx-dwQ Discussed: $SPY $IWM $VIX $DIA $QQQ $EEM $EFA $GLD $TLT $USO $UUP $BTC $XLE $XLU $XLF $XLI $XLB $XLV $XLC $XLY $XLK $ADBE 🐂📈
12/15/23 - View last night's #MarketOutlook from @MarketScholars here: wp.me/p9upfx-dwQ Discussed: $SPY $IWM $VIX $DIA $QQQ $EEM $EFA $GLD $TLT $USO $UUP $BTC $XLE $XLU $XLF $XLI $XLB $XLV $XLC $XLY $XLK $ADBE 🐂📈
From the first rate hike on March 16, 2022 (blue arrow) to the last hike on July 26 (orange arrow), $SPX increased 6.88% during that timeframe as the Fed raised rates 550bps in 16 months off a base of 0%. So far, since the last rate hike, $SPX is up 3.03%
👀 March rate hike odds are at 72% - that's TWO meetings from now
👀 March rate hike odds are at 72% - that's TWO meetings from now
Who had $TLT at breakeven levels for YTD - especially when at one point it was down > 17%?
A reminder that the Fed shifted their tone markedly yesterday and their own dot plot calls for 75bps of cuts next year with market pricing in double that (at 64.5% odds)👇
A reminder that the Fed shifted their tone markedly yesterday and their own dot plot calls for 75bps of cuts next year with market pricing in double that (at 64.5% odds)👇
$FXI has been quietly re-testing its 2008 lows
$SKEW closed above 150 yesterday. Concern in the options market for fat-tail risk exploded in the past couple of days - up 16% in the past week
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