With a further 1% depreciation today, the #Yen is now trading with a 157 handle against the dollar, increasing pressures — more domestic than external — to intervene.
The risk for #Japan is that such intervention could prove ineffective without accelerating the normalization of…
According to the just-released data, March headline and core PCE #inflation are slightly higher than the consensus forecasts (2.7 vs. 2.6 and 2.8 vs 2.7).
Having said that, the miss is smaller than yesterday, and the monthly readings are in line.
Meanwhile, personal spending rose…
Bloomberg on the outcome of the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy meeting.
Think of this as another small step in what the BoJ sees as a relatively long policy normalization journey.
The length of this journey, both on a standalone basis and relative to the US, helps explain the…
Per below, the whole US yield curve shifted up in reaction to the data (see prior post), including the 2-year which traded above 5% as markets pushed to December the expectation of the first rate cut by the #FederalReserve.
(Amazing to think that, just four months ago, #markets…
The hope that some have that this US GDP data (below) would take some pressure off US government bond yields (and others) will be totally dashed unfortunately by another hot inflation print:
Core PCE inflation came in at 3.7% for the first quarter, well above both the prior three…
The hope that some have that this US GDP data (below) would take some pressure off US government bond yields (and others) will be totally dashed unfortunately by another hot inflation print:
Core PCE inflation came in at 3.7% for the first quarter, well above both the prior three…
This goes some way in reconciling what had been a notable divergence between much of the macro data (strong) and quite a few of the bottom-up indicators (weaker).
#economy#growth#markets
I suspect that #Yen weakness — all the way to 155 per US dollar — is not what the Japanese authorities anticipated or are comfortable with given that they have exited YCC and embarked on interest rate normalization.
Having said that, it is far from obvious how they should…
From Bloomberg, and as noted just now by @annmarie, worries about high inflation and elevated interest rates are getting in the way of voters’ appreciation for the US #economy’s #growth performance.
#EconTwitter@economics
The Wall Street Journal chart re US "Mortgage Rates Top 7%."
The stickiness of "high mortgage rates" is frustrating for both home buyers and sellers.
It hurts first-time buyers particularly hard.
It also has social and political consequences.
#economy#housing#markets#mortgages…
The @WSJ chart re US "Mortgage Rates Top 7%."
The stickiness of "high mortgage rates" is a frustration to both home buyers and sellers.
It hurts first-time buyers particularly hard.
It also has social and political consequences.
#economy#housing#markets#mortgages#econtwitter
First seminar in new @Gates_Cambridge Scholars’ Centre. Nobel prize winner Mike Spence, President Queens’ College Cambridge @elerianm and Gates scholar @ReidLidow talking personally about career motivation - wake up every day excited by what you do.
Just a wonderful, wide-ranging conversation with Michael Spence, moderated by Lucia Reisch, on artificial intelligence, productivity, growth, and behavioral economics. One of several events held today.
Thank you Mike for spending such a productive day in Cambridge with our…
This, from Bloomberg, conveys the (correct) notion that the #FederalReserve’s interest rate signaling is a hostage of the fluctuating winds caused by high-frequency data releases that capture both noise and signals in changing importance.
It speaks to something I have been…
From the Bloomberg article by Craig Torres on Fed forecasting and communication (link below).
Count me as another advocate for more central banks to consider shifting from a central projection to scenario analyses.
This shift not only allows for a more comprehensive understanding…
A big thank you to all those who worked hard to put together this wonderful celebration of Charles Villiers Stanford (1852-1924) on the centenary of his passing.
We greatly appreciate having with us on this day Martin Baker, the much sought-after organist, and Jeremy Dibble, who…
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