Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks
Senior Fellow @BrookingsInst, previously Chief Economist @IIF and Chief FX Strategist @GoldmanSachs. Opinions are my own. Email: [email protected]. Washington, DC Joined July 2017-
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Complete agreement. Some are covering up business interests as national interest. Anyone who wages a war of aggression should know their reserves are at risk. And if they feel Reminbi is safer, let them invest there. The @ecb should stop being on the way. Take those reserves.
Complete agreement. Some are covering up business interests as national interest. Anyone who wages a war of aggression should know their reserves are at risk. And if they feel Reminbi is safer, let them invest there. The @ecb should stop being on the way. Take those reserves.
On Wednesday at the @BrookingsInst, we celebrated the brilliance and contributions of preeminent scholars--who collectively contributed 258 years of scholarship to the Institution. A heartfelt thank you to this group. brookings.edu/articles/honor…
Ignore what (Western) European governments *say*. Watch what they *do*. Actions > words Western Europe is not treating this conflict seriously. Not in a way that is commensurate with their rhetoric. cc @ElbridgeColby
Ignore what (Western) European governments *say*. Watch what they *do*. Actions > words Western Europe is not treating this conflict seriously. Not in a way that is commensurate with their rhetoric. cc @ElbridgeColby
A bold vision for Europe is all good and well, but the future of Europe is determined in the here and now, i.e. in how Europe responds to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. In this regard, Europe just drops the ball. French exports to Kyrgyzstan are up 550% from before the invasion...
The issue for the Euro zone and especially the periphery is high debt levels. If US long-term rates rise, which is happening, that will drag up long-term yields in Europe, especially among high debt countries like Italy. Only debt reduction fixes that… on.ft.com/3xRn1ir
There's a "fear-of-floating" at the ECB that's worrying. Senior policy makers worry that the ECB shouldn't decouple policy from the Fed, as the Euro might fall too much. Europe is facing a major shock. If inflation isn't a problem - which it isn't - weaker Euro is only good news.
The Fed forecasts core PCE inflation of 2.6% y/y in Q4 2024. Even with today's "in-line" core PCE, there's now significant upside risk to that and it'll need to be raised in June. Red bars are how much inflation needs to slow to meet the Fed forecast. Hard to see this happening.
The Euro zone is now clearly winning the disinflation race. That should worry ECB policy makers. The Euro zone went into COVID with very different initial conditions than the US, i.e. big output gaps. The danger now is a return to the status quo ex ante of borderline deflation...
In 2017, Macron’s call for EU strategic autonomy was prescient. The world has become more unfriendly to the EU’s naïve model of economic openness. Fair diagnosis - but in key areas his Sorbonne 2.0 speech presents a contradictory and unbalanced economic vision for Europe.🧵
There seems to be a connection between misinformation and inflation. From @S_Stantcheva's excellent paper on inflation, when CPI was 3.4%--half of respondents thought it was 5% or more and one-quarter thought it was 10% or more. brookings.edu/wp-content/upl….
Grazie! Ora come nel 1945. Grazie a voi, agli inglesi, a tutti coloro che combatterono fascismo e nazismo in Italia e poi aiutarono a proteggere la liberta' conquistata.
Grazie! Ora come nel 1945. Grazie a voi, agli inglesi, a tutti coloro che combatterono fascismo e nazismo in Italia e poi aiutarono a proteggere la liberta' conquistata.
The big problem for US inflationistas - those who always see another inflation breakout coming - is this chart. Maybe the output gap isn't as big as after the 2008 crisis, but you have a hard time claiming that the US is overheating. So where is inflation supposed to come from?
Wen overshoot? #USDTRY
The American support package brings support back to earlier levels. Europe still needs to step up. Ukraine tracker update just out 👇🏻👇🏻 Big thanks to @Ch_Trebesch & team for an exceptional public good.
The American support package brings support back to earlier levels. Europe still needs to step up. Ukraine tracker update just out 👇🏻👇🏻 Big thanks to @Ch_Trebesch & team for an exceptional public good.
Of all the major economies, the cyclical picture looks by far the strongest in Japan. Unlike the ECB, which fell into the trap of trying to match the Fed's hiking cycle, the BoJ kept its cool and stuck it out. The big Yen depreciation now means Japan manufacturing is going well.
The sick man of Europe is France. The UK (lhs) looks better than Germany (middle) or France (rhs). Germany looks better than France. The kick-the-can approach in the EU comes at a cost and that cost is now becoming clear. Growth is stagnating just like after the 2008 crisis...
For all the talk about a global rebound, this really isn't in the data. US activity is slowing and a key indicator of stronger global demand - the manufacturing PMI (blue) - looks weak in the US (lhs) and the Euro zone (rhs). Rate cuts are coming. Market pricing is too hawkish...
The cost of pump-prime spending ahead of last month's local elections in Turkey is now becoming clear. Spot FX reserves (blue) in Mar. '24 fell -$10.3 bn. Forward intervention (pink) was -$12.9 bn. Reserves are recovering a bit this month but are still down -$16.5 bn overall...
.@heimbergecon showcasing @robin_j_brooks work at the very timely #UTAK conference on the return of austerity in Europe
This is the second post in our new @BrookingsGlobal Global Economy and Markets (GEM) blog, which recaps the IMF-WB spring meetings. Markets see US elections and escalation of trade tensions with China as Dollar positive. @BrookingsInst brookings.edu/articles/key-t…
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alex (alexander) priv.. @alexprivitera1
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2K Followers 198 Following Prior: 25 years in global finance. Now: associate at Davis Center, Harvard; writing a history of Russian oil and civil society.Complete agreement. Some are covering up business interests as national interest. Anyone who wages a war of aggression should know their reserves are at risk. And if they feel Reminbi is safer, let them invest there. The @ecb should stop being on the way. Take those reserves.
On Russian reserves. To answer some of the reasonable objections: I am not very worried about precedent. I think the contingency is well defined. If you engage in physical war, then you are at risk. Holding dollar or euro reserves does not imply holding them in the US or in…
On Wednesday at the @BrookingsInst, we celebrated the brilliance and contributions of preeminent scholars--who collectively contributed 258 years of scholarship to the Institution. A heartfelt thank you to this group. brookings.edu/articles/honor…
Ignore what (Western) European governments *say*. Watch what they *do*. Actions > words Western Europe is not treating this conflict seriously. Not in a way that is commensurate with their rhetoric. cc @ElbridgeColby
A bold vision for Europe is all good and well, but the future of Europe is determined in the here and now, i.e. in how Europe responds to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. In this regard, Europe just drops the ball. French exports to Kyrgyzstan are up 550% from before the invasion...
@BtbPartners @robin_j_brooks It might be unfair but ECB policy is set by HICP and U.S. is not (BLS does have a HICP series btw)
In 2017, Macron’s call for EU strategic autonomy was prescient. The world has become more unfriendly to the EU’s naïve model of economic openness. Fair diagnosis - but in key areas his Sorbonne 2.0 speech presents a contradictory and unbalanced economic vision for Europe.🧵
@robin_j_brooks The idea real GDP was at trend at the end of 2021 – – – when supply was clearly not whole — seems pretty implausible without a positive demand/output gap. And I believe GDP is now above CBO pre-Covid projections
It’s been a while since I’ve made the Mac. NY cheddar + gruyere + fresh parm on top. Nutmeg is the secret ingredient.
There seems to be a connection between misinformation and inflation. From @S_Stantcheva's excellent paper on inflation, when CPI was 3.4%--half of respondents thought it was 5% or more and one-quarter thought it was 10% or more. brookings.edu/wp-content/upl….
Grazie! Ora come nel 1945. Grazie a voi, agli inglesi, a tutti coloro che combatterono fascismo e nazismo in Italia e poi aiutarono a proteggere la liberta' conquistata.
All'Italia e a tutti gli Italiani, buona #FestadellaLiberazione! #25aprile
@robin_j_brooks Not an inflationista, but inflation can be sticky due to businesses conditioning consumers to price increases and labor in turn demanding COLA.
@robin_j_brooks Might there not be sources of non-competitive inflation?
Wen overshoot? #USDTRY
The cost of pump-prime spending ahead of last month's local elections in Turkey is now becoming clear. Spot FX reserves (blue) in Mar. '24 fell -$10.3 bn. Forward intervention (pink) was -$12.9 bn. Reserves are recovering a bit this month but are still down -$16.5 bn overall...
The American support package brings support back to earlier levels. Europe still needs to step up. Ukraine tracker update just out 👇🏻👇🏻 Big thanks to @Ch_Trebesch & team for an exceptional public good.
📢Ukraine Tracker update: The new US aid package is large, but no game changer. It will help to bring Western support back to the level of early 2023, but only for about 6 months. Europe remains in lead on overall support, but did NOT fill the gap left by the US. What else? 1/8
.@heimbergecon showcasing @robin_j_brooks work at the very timely #UTAK conference on the return of austerity in Europe
Very excited about the #UTAK conference in Helsinki tomorrow! Join us online 👉 vimeo.com/event/4241244/… cc @heimbergecon
Torstaina järjestämme eurooppalaisen talouskurin paluuta käsittelevän seminaarin Helsingin yliopistolla. Englanninkielinen tilaisuus on maksuton ja avoin kaikille. Tervetuloa! Teemoina käsittelemme työmarkkinaheikennyksiä, makrotaloutta, fiposääntöjä sekä teollisuuspolitiikkaa.
@robin_j_brooks No one is doing anything about all this as they are all making money. Money trumps ukraine lives & values every time. Eg usa is telling ukraine not to strike russian fuel dumps that supply russian arm as might push gas prices up & “hit military targets instead”
How Jamaica reduced its debt—and what countries, big and small, can learn from its experience.
At a time when many countries are confronting heavy and growing public debt burdens, Jamaica offers a rare example of a country that succeeded in substantially reducing its debt. brookings.edu/articles/susta…
A top aide to the AfD's lead candidate for the EU elections has been arrested and accused of spying for China. The no. 2 on the AfD list was recorded complaining that the money he received from the Kremlin came in large banknotes. The AfD really is an Alternative for Dictators.
MEP Maximilian Krah, the AfD’s top candidate for the June European Parliament election, is under massive pressure from his party leadership to end his campaign today. Brussels Playbook has the details 👇 trib.al/0zEke0E
Moment of silence as I wait for my Uber
China’s Alternative Order foreignaffairs.com/china/chinas-a… via @ForeignAffairs "By now, Chinese President Xi Jinping’s ambition to remake the world is undeniable. He wants to dissolve Washington’s network of alliances and purge what he dismisses as “Western” values from international…
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