Joseph Wang @FedGuy12
Subscribe at https://t.co/VGtUvtX2QK for latest thoughts and analysis. YouTube: https://t.co/wTjbN1iNQ8 fedguy.com Joined July 2012-
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btw guys the Fed actually has 3 mandates, the one never spoken of is to have "moderate long-term interest rates" just mentioning - in case any president thought rates were too high. federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/se…
Markets Weekly April 27, 2024 Inflation is Sticky US Giving Russian Reserves to Ukraine Highlights from Fed Financial Stability Report youtu.be/uuBSt9tl7AA
IME at FRBNY seniority was due tenure, so a small group of lifers held all the power. And because they could never be fired they basically owned the agency. Almost all were Dems, so I understand if a Repubican pres would be uncomfortable Btw all federal agencies are similar
IME at FRBNY seniority was due tenure, so a small group of lifers held all the power. And because they could never be fired they basically owned the agency. Almost all were Dems, so I understand if a Repubican pres would be uncomfortable Btw all federal agencies are similar
This is so crazy
IMO the pain trade here is to just go up to all time highs.
Nice article by @RichFedResearch on the history of the Fed's 2% target. It took over a decade to build internal consensus. Many considerations that shifted with the changing FOMC composition as well as economic conditions. richmondfed.org/publications/r…
If demand for labor declines even as the supply of labor is increasing from the millions of migrants, then you could see a faster than expected rise in unemployment rate and a rapid decline in wage growth.
If demand for labor declines even as the supply of labor is increasing from the millions of migrants, then you could see a faster than expected rise in unemployment rate and a rapid decline in wage growth.
Markets Weekly April 20, 2024 Fed scares the market IMF concerned about US fiscal deficit A potential Trump Accord youtu.be/s48MUbGM5sw
Week Ahead: Is the #Fed too hawkish? @FedGuy12 says they could be.... Watch the full episode: youtu.be/0VvXiGA-DT4 Try CI Markets free at completeintel.com/markets
Interesting theory suggesting the GDP/GDI gap may be due to the surge in illegal immigrants, as their expenditures are captured in data but not their income.
Interesting theory suggesting the GDP/GDI gap may be due to the surge in illegal immigrants, as their expenditures are captured in data but not their income.
Fed securities today are about $7t. After the imminent taper, QT looks to be about 45b a month. So this projections implies QT could run for another 1 to 2 years. Just their best guess of course.
Fed securities today are about $7t. After the imminent taper, QT looks to be about 45b a month. So this projections implies QT could run for another 1 to 2 years. Just their best guess of course.
A 5% fiscal deficit forever means you are debasing the currency. Rates go higher, but all asset prices do as well. #crashup
Yes I still think 3 cuts this year.
Yes I still think 3 cuts this year.
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30K Followers 80 Following White Paper: https://t.co/d1bTABI1QC My free short online book, The 7 Deadly Innocent Frauds of Economic Policy: https://t.co/bFdUV9ynJp@FedGuy12 Thank you. I’ve been pointing this out for years. But ask any of them and they won’t even try and define what that means.
@FedGuy12 And thanks to Dodd-Frank, "financial stability", however defined.
US will give the frozen Russian assets to Ukraine, Goverment is spending at 6% GDP deficit, People will not have the same trust in out Treasuries, things are not going to be the same as previous cutting cycles, we will have higher rates & harder corporate financing going forward
Everyone is still hedged for downside Few
IMO the pain trade here is to just go up to all time highs.
Today's release of the March PCE report was not good news for the #Fed. A 🧵with some observations 👇 #inflation #consumption #PCE
Ep. 108: Revisiting Velocity - Myths and Reality podbean.com/eas/pb-vju5i-1…
Gonna have to wait 3 more months for a cut… and likely longer because it will be hard to cut in September right ahead of elections
@FedGuy12 haven't seen the paper; seems a bit overstated based on abstract and my experience but should read
(WSJ) - Donald Trump's allies are quietly drafting proposals that would attempt to erode the Federal Reserve's independence
@FedGuy12 This is a brilliant demonstration of how major public institutions have been infiltrated by the long march of the ideological fanatics. And it goes right to the top, don't forget that this policy paper is signed off by very senior people before we ever see it.
@FedGuy12 West has really problem all our institutions are dominated by leftists. No wonder you left your previous job. I had a governmental job in Slovenia, in early 20s and it was hell on earth, being surrounded by radical leftist.
@FedGuy12 1) This is outrageous 2) This table also just shows age. White populations are older 3) No policy has done more to cement inequality than post GFC mortgage reforms (championed by the Left still!), which made home ownership unattainable. A consequence of trying to punish banks
@FedGuy12 Yep.
$SPY wow - I know most of u don't care about such things - but I worked hard for this. Thank you, not only for following, but for the quality of those following. I will keep trying to do even better going forward.
@FedGuy12 Agreed. That would be pain. Max pain if we get a reversal of this month over 5 trading sessions next week, ending the week up 5% across the indexes and by proxy having a lot of individual names up even further.
Policy mistake is in, now we will see what the Fed does.