Rev Cap @rev_cap
Cyclicals Investor. Anon for now. A lot on Housing, Fed Policy, and the Business Cycle Joined September 2021-
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Some great data and perspectives here on regional differences in mortgage rate lock in effect & housing stock age which has some impact on R&R spend Id add the high end of the market generally has seen much less supply added and nationally is more subject to these trends
Some great data and perspectives here on regional differences in mortgage rate lock in effect & housing stock age which has some impact on R&R spend Id add the high end of the market generally has seen much less supply added and nationally is more subject to these trends
My wife is watching sex and the city from the start and people just used to dress so much better — particularly men It really was not that long ago
The entry level is not feeling so hot Bifurcation in entry level housing and the high end is large right now
ECI here is a huge problem. A huge problem Every argument for loose monetary policy has been disproven A lot of people in DC going to be asking hard questions
ECI here is a huge problem. A huge problem Every argument for loose monetary policy has been disproven A lot of people in DC going to be asking hard questions
Fed getting the memo here: can’t get inflation to target with this much fiscal unless you destroy asset prices Fiscal and Monetary are now entering a period of conflict. Honeymoon phase is over Going to need to marriage counseling
Roger Ferguson has been more hawkish than the Fed of late but this was fairly hawkish even by his standards as an FOMC preview today
Biggest blind spots for everyone I talk to in the rates & inflation world are 1) they believe goods inflation will stay flat or negative. They are unaware we are about to go through a manufacturing upcycle 2) they don’t understand stickiness of housing inflation
Biggest blind spots for everyone I talk to in the rates & inflation world are 1) they believe goods inflation will stay flat or negative. They are unaware we are about to go through a manufacturing upcycle 2) they don’t understand stickiness of housing inflation
My man struggling with mean and median
Last few Fed events have been fairly easy to trade They get previewed hawkish and then the Fed ends up being dovish. It’s a tell we are still in the easing cycle. They surprise dovish Is this week different? They didn’t preview hawkish at all. Data is bad. I don’t know tbh
Last few Fed events have been fairly easy to trade They get previewed hawkish and then the Fed ends up being dovish. It’s a tell we are still in the easing cycle. They surprise dovish Is this week different? They didn’t preview hawkish at all. Data is bad. I don’t know tbh
Great charts here. Wealth effect in boomer generation is not discussed enough. It’s incorrect that net worth is narrowly held 30% of first time buyers get down payment from their parents. 25% of millennials have rent support from parents well into late 20s It’s in the economy
Great charts here. Wealth effect in boomer generation is not discussed enough. It’s incorrect that net worth is narrowly held 30% of first time buyers get down payment from their parents. 25% of millennials have rent support from parents well into late 20s It’s in the economy
If there’s one thing this housing market needs, it’s people with $300K incomes to have all of their debts forgiven
If there’s one thing this housing market needs, it’s people with $300K incomes to have all of their debts forgiven
We are so back it’s not even funny
The pace of immigration in the country is now so high that to keep unemployment from increasing, we now need to double the pace of monthly hiring This is a massive shift. It’s also a potentially convenient reason to justify cutting with >3% inflation
The pace of immigration in the country is now so high that to keep unemployment from increasing, we now need to double the pace of monthly hiring This is a massive shift. It’s also a potentially convenient reason to justify cutting with >3% inflation
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Fiscal growing deficits 6-7% of NGDP. Real growth usually is 1-3%. So inflation must be 3-6% YoY best case. Right now I think equilibrium is 3-4% inflation, 3% GDP, UST 10 yr 6%. If this happens, banks will fail, leverage collapse, $SPX <$4000. Asset backed debt + cash king.
my husband I watch at least one episode of House Hunters daily. he loves it. what he doesn’t realize is that it’s a propaganda tactic to make him want to buy a house and move out of the city
It's making less and less sense to be a credit investor in real estate 👇 lewisenterprises.blog/p/the-credit-t…
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and DoorDash.
Reporter grills Columbia student after she demands the university help feed protestors occupying Hamilton Hall: "It seems like you're saying, 'we want to be revolutionaries, we want to take over this building, now would you please bring us some food'."
Its almost like there is still too much money in the system.
just now? LOL
Caffeine consumption one of the things that falls the most with GLP1s users. Same for frapps / scones / donuts etc. $sbux They wont address it on the call but worth thinking about
Hopefully, we all can agree now that national home prices didn't crash in 2023! And that housing bubble crash X has been trash since 2012 🫡 advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates…
The older home needs work premise has been a selling point for builders here in So Cal
Resale homes are older, need work, and there aren’t many for sale (lock-in, etc.). All of this helped homebuilders this cycle. The story shifts when you compare California (super old housing and very locked-in) vs. Florida and Texas (newer housing and not as locked-in).
multiple rejections now of 60k i hate to think of what comes next but its not good $BTC
I am NOT a buyer of this Bitcoin Dip Danger lies ahead
damn, amazon went to a blue background for the slides CHANGE IS AFOOT
Banger of a title from Wolfe…
*YELLEN: CONCERNED ABOUT 'WHERE WE'RE GOING' WITH US DEFICIT *YELLEN: US NEEDS 'SIGNIFICANT STEPS' TO REDUCE BUDGET DEFICIT Ya think Janet? Cmon. Enough with the gaslighting.
COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY HAS FALLEN probably going a bit far at this point, doesnt seem like a peaceful demonstration
@rev_cap One signpost along the way was when tech people began going blazer sans tie