Spencer Hakimian @SpencerHakimian
Founder of Tolou Capital Management. Global macro, market neutral, risk optimization. Aiming for positive real returns in all climates. Not investment advice. toloucapital.com New York, New York Joined November 2020-
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One of the uncomfortable truths to accept in long term investing is that equities tend to do better when rates are rising rather than when rates are falling - except for the initial shock that comes from rate hikes (1973-1974, 2022). Take the 1970s as an example. Equities…
Home Prices +0.60% M/M and +7.3% Y/Y. Neutral rate is higher. FOMC has to have the courage to admit that. 5.25% FFR is not restricting anything.
*U.S. 1Q EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX INCREASES 1.2%; EST. 1.0% We are 1 hawkish Powell presser away from pricing in rate hikes again.
*US BOOSTS APRIL-JUNE BORROWING EST. TO $243B FROM $202B It’s harder and harder by the day to justify owning U.S. debt. Supply is relentlessly increasing.
YTD returns - Toyota +24% (green), Yen/Dollar -10% (red). Toyota doing twice as good as the Nikkei 225. More exports and more leverage. If you want to bet a sustained yen collapse/ineffective BOJ/MOF intervention - then Toyota may be the best bet. Also ties in to a strong…
Something that may be counterintuitive at first is that historically, equities actually perform materially better in a moderately rising interest rate environment than in a falling interest rate environment. This is actually logical when you think closely about it. Moderately…
*YEN WEAKENS PAST 160 PER DOLLAR, FIRST TIME SINCE 1990 Booking a trip to Tokyo. Lifelong dream of mine. Thank you BOJ.
What happens when China dumps 20 million EV’s on the U.S. and Europe at an average MSRP of $15,000? Even with a 30% tariff, a car like the BYD Qin is still selling for under $20,000 and would be one of the best cars for sale in the U.S.
The most immediate change that will come out of this week’s FOMC meeting will likely be the announcement of a tapering of QT. The Federal Reserve Balance Sheet is still ~$3.5T higher than pre COVID. It’s about ~$1.5T off its all time high of $9T in March 2022. My question is,…
*YEN WEAKENS PAST 157 PER DOLLAR AS SLIDE ACCELERATES Short sellers absolutely punishing the yen for the BOJ’s negative real interest rate. Pressure on Japanese households that require imports. Toyota, meanwhile couldn’t be happier.
Just structurally impossible to get to 2% core inflation with 10% annualized spending.
Pose it the other way: if Presidents are absolutely criminally immune, then: 1. Joe Biden is unquestionably the most powerful human being that has ever existed in our species history. 2. He is President (dictator) for life. 3. Every opposition party in the country can be…
Gold +0.40% pre market on GDP TLT -0.80% pre market on GDP
Gold +0.40% pre market on GDP TLT -0.80% pre market on GDP
Q1 GDP +1.6% Annualized versus +2.5% EST. But, consumption grew at +2.5%, so the underlying economy is still strong. The miss was because the U.S. imported a lot more than expected. The irony here is that China’s Q1 export figures were abysmal! U.S. importing a lot. But…
I live in a world where I must constantly account for tail risks, and be prepared to capitalize (hopefully outsizedly) from things that are unlikely to happen, but if they do happen, would have devastating consequences for most traditional investments. I focus excessively on…
The 2032 U.S. election will be won or lost on who can ensure social security recipients receive 100 cents on the dollar. The only thing both candidates in 2016, 2020, and 2024 agreed on was no cuts to social security or Medicare. Higher taxes, or reduced spending, or both are…
Since 2008, most of annual nominal GDP growth has come from the annual deficit. Even more alarming than that, in many of those years, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet expansion accounted for all of U.S. nominal growth. Non-Fed balance sheet expansion, debt issuance, to fund…
I’m just thinking how there’s likely a fixed income trader somewhere in Tokyo right now, whose entire book on January 1st was long 1 year UST’s FX unhedged, and, if the year was ending today, he or she would be up ~15%, and would be in line to receive a 7 (or 8) figure bonus.
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My interview with @SpencerHakimian on potential #volatility ahead around rate cuts divide btwn the Fed and Wall Street $VIX
On the rise of the BTFP @SpencerHakimian linkedin.com/posts/spencerh…
My interview with @SpencerHakimian on all the #bond volatility and some interesting thoughts on the employment picture plus #oil and #GOLD
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