Jesse Felder @jessefelder
"I'm just lookin' for clues at the scene of the crime..." thefelderreport.com Gleneden Beach, Oregon Joined March 2007-
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Natural gas has been cheaper compared to oil only once in the past 30-plus years. That happened in April 2012, when nat gas prices more than tripled over two years. To be clear: That doesn't necessarily suggest that oil is overvalued; rather, it underscores the potential…
It's very rare to see a public co. founder call out another public co. founder this way, esp out of the blue. Makes you wonder what's going on behind-the-scenes. Why say this now? "You shouldn't assume you're being told the truth by any of these public companies." ooh boy🍿
A decade ago, Fed officials looked at very low rates and sluggish growth to conclude the “neutral” interest rate must be lower. Today, the inverse may be happening: growth is resilient amid new sources of investment demand and higher fiscal deficits wsj.com/economy/centra…
There are some interesting dynamics at play within equity leadership ... never a great sign when trucking stocks are struggling ... meanwhile, the two biggest publicly traded pawn shops are near highs. Hmmm. Happy Sunday. FT
"Global inflation remains undefeated. A key force for disinflation — falling commodity prices — has essentially hit a wall. The world is at a vulnerable moment: a major energy shock could undermine much of the progress in reducing inflation." ft.com/content/769c8c…
'Microsoft dropped $14B in capex in the latest quarter—more than the company used to spend in an entire year just five years ago. Alphabet's outlay of $12B nearly doubled from the same quarter last year.' wsj.com/business/earni…
'Valuations of the world's gold producers, led by Newmont and Barrick, have rarely been as heavily discounted in the past 40 years versus the gold price as they are now.' ft.com/content/69d46a…
This former $TSLA C-Suite executive is selling virtually all his shares, but I’m sure FSD and robotaxis are right around the corner…
California's unemployment rate has been rising since August 2022, up to 5.3% now. It keeps going up, yet the national unemployment rate hasn't followed it. Pay attention: California may be sending a warning.
Core PCE inflation over the last 3 months was a 4.4% annual rate. That is higher than any time from Nov 1990 to Mar 2021. Yes, there were special factors, seasonal issues, etc. But there were also special factors & seasonal issues at various times in those previous 30 years.
This is clearly not heading in the right direction: 3-month annualized change in core PCE #inflation up to +4.4% in March
Also not heading in right direction: “supercore” PCE #inflation +0.39% month/month in March, taking year/year rate back up to +3.5%
Silver is retesting major multi-year support and should consolidate, then trade much higher from current levels. $SI_F $SIVR
'Biden and Congress continue to stoke demand in an economy that already has plenty. Tight monetary and loose fiscal policy sucks in capital from overseas and drives up the dollar incentivizing protectionism.' wsj.com/economy/global…
"The prevailing question for investors remains 'when does the Generative AI piece of the equation ramp more fully?' Investor patience for top-line results has worn thin." bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
'Zuckerberg warned that the investments would increase "meaningfully" and take a long time to generate returns for the social networking company — perhaps years.' bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
'Almost 120,000 corporate positions have vanished from Chicago, Los Angeles and San Francisco combined during the past year. White-collar payrolls also declined in smaller hubs such as Phoenix and Seattle.' bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
US Economy Slows and Inflation Jumps, Damping Soft-Landing Hopes bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
'China first overtook the U.S. in 2013. Since then, the country has seen enormous growth in the number of AI patents granted each year.' visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-ai… by @VisualCap
'Lack of supply and high mortgage rates keep homes expensive, pressuring rents higher as potential buyers find themselves stuck in the rental market. Elevated shelter inflation leads the Fed to hold rates higher for longer, hindering construction.' bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Jim Bianco @biancoresearch
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261K Followers 337 Following Founder and President of Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc. Retweets, Likes and Follows are not endorsements.Grant Williams @ttmygh
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15K Followers 349 Following Institutional Research Disclosure: https://t.co/jZZZtQNGaY Distributor: Compass Distributors, LLCThis chart shows the shares of the PCE basket growing at different rates (MoM annualized). The broad disinflation we saw in 2023 is definitely gone and at least after the first few months of 2024, seems to be reversing.
Natural gas has been cheaper compared to oil only once in the past 30-plus years. That happened in April 2012, when nat gas prices more than tripled over two years. To be clear: That doesn't necessarily suggest that oil is overvalued; rather, it underscores the potential…
Weekend made 🩷
@menlobear Hey Adam, just want you to know that you are without question the best interviewer in America. I love your podcasts and appreciate all you do. Huge fan! Thank you! 🙏
The Bespoke 50 AI basket of 50 AI stocks covering implementation and infrastructure now makes up 16% of world equity market cap. It’s up 7 percentage points since the start of 2023. This has been the AI bull market.
brainwash yourself with positive mental attitude propaganda your brain with optimism gaslight yourself into hope
It's very rare to see a public co. founder call out another public co. founder this way, esp out of the blue. Makes you wonder what's going on behind-the-scenes. Why say this now? "You shouldn't assume you're being told the truth by any of these public companies." ooh boy🍿
A decade ago, Fed officials looked at very low rates and sluggish growth to conclude the “neutral” interest rate must be lower. Today, the inverse may be happening: growth is resilient amid new sources of investment demand and higher fiscal deficits wsj.com/economy/centra…
If the Chinese authorities allow USDCNY to go next week, we are probably talking about a move towards the 7.75-8.00 range. This could prove to be the macro event of 2024! How to position for it? -> stenoresearch.com/steno-signals-…
Other than the financials being a mess at $TSLA the most interesting thing is that the company will now spend $10B in capex for the development of AI, essentially an admission that FSD is a failure to date & a new approach is needed, but “Dojo” which has long been touted by…
There are some interesting dynamics at play within equity leadership ... never a great sign when trucking stocks are struggling ... meanwhile, the two biggest publicly traded pawn shops are near highs. Hmmm. Happy Sunday. FT
Want a sign of how wild trading is with AI-related stocks? Broadcom was up 139.36 points (12%) last week on no specific Broadcom-related news. The prior week there was also no specific cause for Broadcom's 139.38 (-10%) point loss. Two week move: a drop of 2 cents per share. This…
Buy low and sell high. Natural gas is currently re-testing the lows of its prior 7 major bottoms. If you ask me, time to step in.
Has a freight recession resurfaced? The state of the freight industry is looking soft as Old Dominion Freight, Knight-Swift, J.B. Hunt and UPS all had some sort of negatives emerge from earnings/guidance. Beyond that, the Dow Transports are off nearly -10% from the cycle high.
To fill this morning’s gaps, $SPY would have to decline to 504.27 and $QQQ to 425.32. How quickly the gaps get filled -- if at all – gives us an idea of how strong the underlying trend is.
This former $TSLA C-Suite executive is selling virtually all his shares, but I’m sure FSD and robotaxis are right around the corner…
The “Cyclical Economy” aggregates employment and output for the high-powered engine of economic growth including residential construction, manufacturing, and durable goods consumption/transportation. Recessions always come with an annual contraction in the rate of growth for the…
California's unemployment rate has been rising since August 2022, up to 5.3% now. It keeps going up, yet the national unemployment rate hasn't followed it. Pay attention: California may be sending a warning.
Wild books stats from @ThisIsSethsBlog this morning. Thank you to all the readers of "The Confidence Map" for putting my book in the green area of the pie chart. It's humbling and thrilling all at the same time.
Core PCE inflation over the last 3 months was a 4.4% annual rate. That is higher than any time from Nov 1990 to Mar 2021. Yes, there were special factors, seasonal issues, etc. But there were also special factors & seasonal issues at various times in those previous 30 years.