Jeffrey P. Snider @JeffSnider_EDU
Host Eurodollar University channel. Monetary science reborn. Putting central banks where they belong. linktr.ee/eurodollaruniv… West Palm Beach, FL Joined May 2014-
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Does Republic First partly answer who was desperate for funding on the last day the BTFP was taking loans? There was $3.4 billion increase. If it was Republic First, it couldn't only have been Republic First (not big enough). Biggest unresolved issue w/BTFP is how many banks…
Any bank with both words “First” and “Republic” in its name is immediately fair game. Remember it was First Republic last year which closed the prior chapter on bank failures only to have the latest one open with Republic First.
Banks have been bleeding cash, too. There was the typical seasonal drain at quarter-end, but it never got rebuilt as deposits fled in April. Forced sales happening?
Nearly $200 bln in deposit outflows the last three weeks. That's not higher rates, it's not like Tbills yields have suddenly surged offering higher MMF potential returns. Were banks selling USTs to meet the deposit drains?
Cash drain. Deposit drain. Small bank in Philly goes down, becoming the first of 2024. It's not this one bank, how many others there might be. Basically, these banks went nuts in '21 confusing the CPI for a recovery. Now it's time to clean up. fdic.gov/news/press-rel…
It’s easy to sit back and scan the headlines to get a take on the economy, but the vast majority just spit out the same conventional takes shaped by policymakers and politicians with something else in mind. You have to take a broad and careful look at the situation, gathering…
What energy use tells us about the past couple years is...no boom. Not even close. It's all a price illusion, one whose effects are fading slowly. What's emerging from behind the veil of the CPI is what the Saudis already know. youtu.be/6Bu2DHZUd4Y
It's another huge "coincidence" that energy use radically changed after August 2007 just like jobs, GDP, and everything else. Again, if economy is growing you use more energy regardless of price. If energy use isn't growing, then there is no economic growth. PERIOD.…
Modern economies need energy which leads to a very simple rule: growing economy means growing demand for oil, gasoline, electricity. If you see demand and use of oil, gasoline, electricity suddenly drop, that's not because of the price it's because of the economy.…
The funny thing is, we know for a fact the economy in the US is really struggling. There's an unassailable way to tell the real state of the system. It's just no one will like what it shows. youtu.be/6Bu2DHZUd4Y
One big reason why disinflation seems to be taking so long is because Uncle Sam is subsidizing the price changes with massive transfers, the same price changes the initial transfers largely caused. Xfers still aren't enough for an actual recovery. youtu.be/6Bu2DHZUd4Y
GDP deflator was pushed up solely by PCE services. Some of it was the usual housing/rent nonsense (not real). Most of it was in two categories, starting w/financial services which means mainly insurance costs. That's neither inflation nor inflationary. youtu.be/6Bu2DHZUd4Y
To begin with, goods prices continue to be thoroughly disinflationary. Even outside energy, there are no price pressures in goods where there would be if inflation was happening. Instead, prices down two straight quarters in a row. youtu.be/6Bu2DHZUd4Y
With weak Q1 GDP, the term "stagflation" has been thrown around. Understandable to an extent. Primary reason for low growth rate was higher price changes. But they weren't inflationary. The prices that changed most are going to cause demand to suffer. youtu.be/6Bu2DHZUd4Y
Again, massive govt payments to keep the economy afloat sounds like a good thing. But did it work? Did Uncle Sam buy us a recovery? Nope. And this isn't the first time, either. youtu.be/PSOc5uracb4
Govt payments go way beyond the "social benefits" disbursed in 2020-21. Full transfers have been massively elevated since the early part of 2021, just hundreds of billions in handouts galore. Several trillion in excess of the pre-pandemic baseline. youtu.be/PSOc5uracb4
The scale of govt "support" to the economy even now is unimaginable. And it sounds like a good thing; Uncle Sam handing out trillions to keep the economy afloat. But if you have to hand out trillions to keep the economy afloat, it really isn't going well. youtu.be/PSOc5uracb4
A huge reason why GDP and the real economy haven't been much worse over the past few years is the fed govt, but I don't mean the usual financing global conflicts or buying votes. Massive transfers. You think those all ended in '21, but they didn't. youtu.be/PSOc5uracb4
Big miss on real GDP for Q1, just 1.6% q/q rather than 2.5% expected. Lowest in 2 yrs. More importantly, shows that the "boom" of the 5% quarter last year was, yep, transitory. Mainly govt. Wasn't even enough to get real output back on trend (recovery). youtu.be/6Bu2DHZUd4Y
Alf @MacroAlf
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