Le Shrub🌳🔥🇺🇦 @agnostoxxx
Founder and CIO of a $1 Trillion Hedge Fun. Account for entertainment purposes only. Explicit language shrubstack.com Monaco Joined September 2013-
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“The Pain Trade” New Shrubstack. Only intended for serious people.
Shrubstack trade for the QRA was long $XBI calls, started on Friday open. Calls 2x since then in just a day. Did my P&L give a shit about the QRA actual outcome? Not really, no 🥹
@agnostoxxx Unfortunately the voice of Dickinson exceeds my capabilities but anyway Here you go!🤟 x.com/MuffinmanMagic…
@agnostoxxx Unfortunately the voice of Dickinson exceeds my capabilities but anyway Here you go!🤟 x.com/MuffinmanMagic… https://t.co/Q9b33HmidJ
I woke up in the middle of the night. I checked the time. 4:44 I screenshot the time. I say: “Ah fk, not again 😩” #4444 #Gothilocks again???
Doing a little “Corner of the FT” analysis in the style of my friend @agnostoxx on the current outlook for the yen.
A new centrally cleared era in repo markets is looming, which will cause an exodus from its shadowy yet most systemic regions. This may increase resiliency but also inhibit key trades gluing U.S. Treasury markets together. The Repo Leverage Squeeze™ is here... 1/
$JPY at 155.55 It’s a really nice level to defend. Almost poetic. But If they let it go, it will go to 166.66 Anyway. I think the Tamagotchis will manage to knock it off a few pct by next Friday. Maybe eventually down to 144.44 TBD 🥹
*YELLEN: SHOULD ONLY INTERVENE ON EXCHANGE RATES IN `RARE' CASES Like now 🤣🥹🙏
$META down 10% on revenues +26% yoy vs $TSLA up 10% on revenues -9% yoy is precisely why I love the Market and I'm convinced that monkeys will always give us chances to make money 🥹
New Shrubstack out on the QRA being part of a Plaza Accord 2.0 Toolkit. It’s just a theory but hey, nothing is beneath Tamagotchi Yellen!
Will Janet 1. Materially reduce coupons 2. Spend down the TGA to well below 700BN 3. Fund buyback of bonds with bills
We are saved 🥹🙏🙏🙏
Paulo and I had a lot of catch up to do. We recorded our call again and posted on Shrubstack and Cloudbearstack 🥹
Paulo and I had a lot of catch up to do. We recorded our call again and posted on Shrubstack and Cloudbearstack 🥹
Caught up with my buddy @agnostoxxx today... had been a few weeks since we chatted, figured time to hit record and see what was on our minds... link in the bio.
Today we give thanks to the Market Gods 🥹🙏
*FTSE 100 CLOSES AT RECORD HIGH, SURPASSING 2023 CLOSING PEAK This is the most Boomer Index in the world and I love it 🥹
"Diary of a Madman II" out now on Shrubstack! We discuss current setup and new buys.
@agnostoxxx Navigating the crypto landscape requires wit & warning alike. Shrubstack's 'Max Stupid Red Alert' wasn't just comedic gold, but a prescient heads-up in a volatile market. Here's to those who can read beyond the humor for the hidden insights. Cheers to the parody prophets!
Following multiple market panics, officials have enacted their latest plan to strengthen the U.S. repo market. This will not only rewire its plumbing but also relocate trillions of dollars in highly leveraged trades. The Repo Market Exodus™ has now commenced... 1/
KKGB Kitty @INArteCarloDoss
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Kuppy @hkuppy
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Josh Young @Josh_Young_1
95K Followers 2K Following Contrarian value investor. O&G. Not advice, do not rely, past performance not indicative, positioning may change w/out notice. Likes & r/ts are not endorsements
Alexander Stahel 🇺.. @BurggrabenH
85K Followers 4K Following Let’s make Europe safe again. Commodities
Real Wifey @RealAlphaWifey
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@agnostoxxx Will the Robotaxis come in pink and fly too? 🤣
Naturally, one of the nicest and most intelligent young women I met in Melbourne yesterday is from England, where they have banned puberty blockers after conducting the world’s most thorough review of all evidence. Here is the fantastic @AnnaMcGovernUK.
The most bullish markets in commodities are ALWAYS supply driven (shortage of the stuff while demand is almost inelastic and substitution is limited). See #cocoa. Demand driven markets get killed when prices reach a level where demand decelerates. Target supply deficits
Before you ask, there aren’t really good books on how to learn commodities trading (lots of them with interesting stories but not technical). If you are young and interested in these markets, eat shit for 3 years or more and start as a (slave) junior in a respected trading co.
While many #commodities have substitutes (palm oil v soy oil v sun oil etc). Same in proteins, corn, soymeal etc. Energy too but Cocoa has practically no substitute. To kill demand you need to drive prices crazy
Looks like @kerviel_j has new friends in Hong Kong *SOCGEN TRADERS IN ASIA EXIT AFTER OPTIONS BETS WENT UNDETECTED Good news: the bank didn't lose money. Bad news: looks like they had 100s M of delta that went undetected! For conspiracy theorists: it was on Indian options...
It is important to fully think through what you own and why you own it. Like in shipping, most of the volatility really has no reason It should be viewed only as a big temporary sale. Which is often smart to wait for Volatility is a huge friend for those that know how to use it
You have now all become senior commodity traders over night! Have a good day 😘
The five major reasons why $BHP is interested in Anglo American $AAL.l: 1) Copper 2) Copper 3) Copper 4) Copper 5) Copper For more details see @respeculator, who knew this about a nanosecond after the news dropped.
The commodities you DONT want to own, are those in full carry (contango). Spot is cheaper as supply is plentiful and the producer struggles to store it coz storage isn’t infinite. Remember crude going negative? Even though this was an extreme it tells u how it works
Look, I don’t want to fckng patronise anyone ok. I just want to share my experience in #commodities where I know a thing or 2. That’s all 😘
Many moons ago I was asked by many followers which #commodity was the one to own when commods start taking off (as they do now). A supply shortage is always expressed by inverted (backwarded) price curves ie front more expensive that forwards.
@agnostoxxx interesting.. not joking, isn't that biotech.. hmm..
@agnostoxxx LOL. That's like saying my trade on jobs report is the early pick 5 at acqueduct.
@agnostoxxx Don’t hold back, we need the Yellen burning down equities until we buy her bond meme. Was perfect for todays price action 😂
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