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PDS @TopadoDuran

Modern Global Macro Investor. Former Head of Macro at Soros. ex - Element. QFR. GS. DB. Macroeconomics. Markets. Bayesian. Data. Opinions are my own. Manhattan, NY Joined October 2009
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TopadoDuran Profile Picture

PDS @TopadoDuran

5 days ago

The rebalancing process means lower share of goods spending via prices (more deflation) and quantities. It also means service inflation can run a little hotter than normal to allow the share of spending in services to revert to pre-pandemic. Labor supply allows this process to…

jc_econ Profile Picture

Julia Coronado @jc_econ

5 days ago

The rebalancing process means lower share of goods spending via prices (more deflation) and quantities. It also means service inflation can run a little hotter than normal to allow the share of spending in services to revert to pre-pandemic. Labor supply allows this process to…

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PDS @TopadoDuran

a week ago

Continuing with the AI generated central bankers series. Llama 3 has some sense of humor @finkd

TopadoDuran Profile Picture

PDS @TopadoDuran

5 months ago

Continuing with the AI generated central bankers series. Llama 3 has some sense of humor @finkd https://t.co/Oy8NyCkWsj

TopadoDuran Profile Picture

PDS @TopadoDuran

2 weeks ago

Bumpy road.. perspective is needed or a few years living in an EM country. DM folks are not familiar with price propagation in normal times so they confuse bumpy road with inflation broadening @DanielSLoeb1 another one for #UncleLarry

jc_econ Profile Picture

Julia Coronado @jc_econ

2 weeks ago

Bumpy road.. perspective is needed or a few years living in an EM country. DM folks are not familiar with price propagation in normal times so they confuse bumpy road with inflation broadening @DanielSLoeb1 another one for #UncleLarry

TopadoDuran Profile Picture

PDS @TopadoDuran

3 weeks ago

Detroit Shelter CPI was responsible for 1.8 bps of March inflation or about 30% of the core inflation miss 💀

donnelly_brent Profile Picture

ʎllǝuuop ʇuǝɹq @donnelly_brent

3 weeks ago

Detroit Shelter CPI was responsible for 1.8 bps of March inflation or about 30% of the core inflation miss 💀

PDS retweeted
ElizRosner Profile Picture

Laura Rosner-Warburton @ElizRosner

a month ago

Results of our March shadow survey indicate market participants expect the median rate path to be unchg'd from Dec but a sizeable minority (28%) thinks the 2024 "dot" could be revised higher. The Fed's 2024 core PCE inflation projection lies at the heart of the disagreement. 1/6

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PDS @TopadoDuran

a month ago

There are a ton of so called Macro experts out there with an opinion on the upcoming @federalreserve dot plot. Almost none of these are surgically formed Heres is a surgical approach to it 6 members wrote down 3 2024 dots in Dec SEP. I think these members are: Daly, Barr,…

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PDS @TopadoDuran

2 months ago

Market participants fear the March FOMC SEP reveals higher Core PCE forecast for 2024. This is sensible given the market tends to overreact to recent data and January and February Core PCE were high. Extrapolating from these two months for the rest of the year is premature given…

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PDS @TopadoDuran

2 months ago

Welcome back 1.5% GDP regime Most relevant data point today is retail control and revisions to the service line item of the retail trade report How ironic is it that when GDP consensus are at the highs of the cycle, consumption is finally softening? The GDP forecasters started…

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PDS @TopadoDuran

2 months ago

Bom Dia. Channeling legendary @concodanomics Say it back Labor market is balanced and cooling towards weak Chair powell added the characterization of “relatively” in front of tight. Next is balanced (more like a little weaker than 2018-2019) specially on hiring flows…

PDS retweeted
donnelly_brent Profile Picture

ʎllǝuuop ʇuǝɹq @donnelly_brent

2 months ago

We did a quick survey on how Spectra clients think NFP will affect market pricing (+more). Here are the results. Sample size was 39, which is smaller than usual as we just posted in some client chats. Still, 39 is a good enough sample—I can just about guarantee results would not…

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PDS @TopadoDuran

2 months ago

Remeber how many pundits (in January) pointed to NFIB plans to raise worker compensation to tell a story of accelerating wages? Well…

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PDS @TopadoDuran

2 months ago

Greenspan July 1995 FOMC transcript. Fed starts “soft-landing” calibration cuts: “I have concluded that, since the risks are beginning to ease slightly, there is no urgency here; but I do think we should move because I find it increasingly difficult to argue in favor of staying…

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PDS @TopadoDuran

2 months ago

Equity prices up = Bond yields up = FCI neutral market adjustments Market continues to anchor on: r* = rho + a * g - ERP Lower ERP = Higher r* To the benefit of the Fed this anchoring mechanism is keeping FCI constant. Bonds are held hostage of the AI led equity rally…

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PDS @TopadoDuran

3 months ago

The relationship between r* and ERP is currently at the center of markets dynamics. In a positive growth shock environment SPX drifts higher with EPS growth while bond yields sell off, as rates reset to a higher r* regime. To the benefit of the @federalreserve, this dynamic is…

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PDS @TopadoDuran

4 months ago

The relationship between r* and ERP is currently at the center of markets dynamics. In a positive growth shock environment SPX drifts higher with EPS growth while bond yields sell off, as rates reset to a higher r* regime. To the benefit of the @federalreserve, this dynamic is…

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PDS @TopadoDuran

3 months ago

CPI revisions will go a long way for @federalreserve to gain greater confidence - this was a sticking point for them and Powell response on the presser suggested so. We think market consensus was expecting a +0.2% bump in Q4 3m SAAR number and we got about +1.3 bps of revision.…

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PDS @TopadoDuran

3 months ago

POWELL: Well, I would say it this way. The economy's strong. The labor market's strong. Inflation's coming down. There's no reason why that can't continue. We're gonna try to use our tools to give the economy -- to continue to improve as inflation comes down. We'll give it every…

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PDS @TopadoDuran

3 months ago

This is all it matters from today’s labor market report @federalreserve #iykyk

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