Michael Redmond @mredmond88
US macro, Medley Advisors. Formerly US Treasury and KC Fed. Johns Hopkins MIEF '19, Notre Dame '11, NABE CBE. All views are my own Washington, DC Joined January 2014-
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Join the @NatlEconClub at Logan Tavern on Thursday at noon next week for the second presentation in our election-year series, with Econ Twitter sensation and recent Biden CEA chief economist @ernietedeschi sure to spark a great conversation! national-economists.org/nec-event/5-9-…
Nice anecdotal evidence here supporting our theory @medleyadvisors that housing inflation would be stickier than many expected due to the shifting pricing strategies from mom-and-pop landlords, who control over 40% of all rental units my.medleyadvisors.com/research/medle…
Nice anecdotal evidence here supporting our theory @medleyadvisors that housing inflation would be stickier than many expected due to the shifting pricing strategies from mom-and-pop landlords, who control over 40% of all rental units my.medleyadvisors.com/research/medle… https://t.co/U21Mr8ezxm
Updating this chart that I added last month. To me, it says the conventional approach of forecasting RGDP and PGDP separately is inefficient. Rather, it appears easier to forecast NGDP and then to explore how it will split between RGDP and PGDP.
Takeaways from the FOMC press conference:
Perhaps a good FOMC press conference for Fed Chair Powell would be to ask whether he supports this analysis finding current levels of wage growth as being a neutral factor for inflation given the way wages lag price changes
Perhaps a good FOMC press conference for Fed Chair Powell would be to ask whether he supports this analysis finding current levels of wage growth as being a neutral factor for inflation given the way wages lag price changes
Last chance to join the @NatlEconClub for an in-depth conversation on economic policy from a former Treasury official who would likely be very influential in a Trump II administration - tomorrow at Logan Tavern at noon national-economists.org/nec-event/5-2-…
These emails from the public to Treasury about its debt management policy must make the Dallas Fed survey comments look prim and proper. Someone needs to FOIA these messages and share the comedic gold mine with us all @SalehaMohsin @JasonLeopold dallasfed.org/research/surve…
@NatlEconClub luncheon on Thursday should be interesting, given how many articles are being written about economic policy changes a Trump victory could bring. Still some tickets left if you want to join the conversation at Logan Tavern with Dr. Faulkender! national-economists.org/nec-event/5-2-…
CBO's comparison of federal government vs. private sector pay based on easily observable characteristics is always an interesting read. Government pays a premium at lower education levels but a discount for people with a master’s degree or higher cbo.gov/publication/60…
Nice note here from my @EnergyAspects colleagues, arguing that EV sales remain on a solidly upward trajectory, even in the US, despite a narrative that has swung from being overly optimistic to overly pessimistic my.medleyadvisors.com/research/energ…
An important point here about perceptions of economic reality we have been making @medleyadvisors since it helps to explain political polling and weak survey data. If people were only upset about the rise in the price level, they wouldn't be so pessimistic about employment too
An important point here about perceptions of economic reality we have been making @medleyadvisors since it helps to explain political polling and weak survey data. If people were only upset about the rise in the price level, they wouldn't be so pessimistic about employment too https://t.co/fcK75YZllw
Don't get excited about the possibility of a Fed rate cut, investors - you're tying your own noose!
Don't get excited about the possibility of a Fed rate cut, investors - you're tying your own noose!
A poll asking Americans who was president in early-2020 would be extremely helpful for modeling this upcoming election dailycaller.com/2024/04/23/oil…
A poll asking Americans who was president in early-2020 would be extremely helpful for modeling this upcoming election dailycaller.com/2024/04/23/oil… https://t.co/du1rG8qSyl
🇺🇸 'US election: Joementum' updates Medley model to give continued edge to @POTUS for re-election but @TrumpDailyPosts gains slightly to 45.3%; Biden outperforming with older Americans while Trump gains among young minority men: bit.ly/47cc5ZV
Oh wow, the Yellen Treasury has boosted the bills share of total issuance up to the shockingly high... historical average 🤔. Stand down Fintwit, this is not the narrative you're looking for
Oh wow, the Yellen Treasury has boosted the bills share of total issuance up to the shockingly high... historical average 🤔. Stand down Fintwit, this is not the narrative you're looking for https://t.co/fSa5Pg9cot
Great opportunity to hear how the US election could affect economic policymaking in DC, including a $5 incentive to listen to the other side's perspective as well
Great opportunity to hear how the US election could affect economic policymaking in DC, including a $5 incentive to listen to the other side's perspective as well
The new "supercore" services employment: services payrolls, excluding government, retail, wholesale, healthcare, utility and temporary help sub-sectors 🤔
The new "supercore" services employment: services payrolls, excluding government, retail, wholesale, healthcare, utility and temporary help sub-sectors 🤔
@ianbremmer Is there a country that likes their govt?
🔊Medley podcast on oil and rates after Iran/Israel exchange of attacks: bit.ly/47cc5ZV
Joey Politano 🏳️.. @JosephPolitano
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Dario Perkins @darioperkins
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Joey Politano 🏳️.. @JosephPolitano
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Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart
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Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited
139K Followers 690 Following CIO at @UnlimitedFnds | PM of $HFND | Fmr IC @Bridgewater | Described as one of the few "sane" voices on #fintwit | Comments are not investment advice
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99K Followers 957 Following CFR senior fellow. Views are my own. Retweets are not endorsements. Writes on sovereign debt and capital flows.
Conor Sen @conorsen
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158K Followers 2K Following Professor of Practice at Harvard. Teaches Ec 10, some tweets might be educational. Also Senior Fellow @PIIE. Was Chair of President Obama's CEA.
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26K Followers 5K Following Executive Director - @employamerica. RTs/likes != endorsements. https://t.co/tKsuuvVYoc @skandaamarnath on other sites. Charitable interpretation advised
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148K Followers 208 Following Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment. For speaking engagements, please contact me at [email protected]
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397K Followers 1K Following Macro investment research at https://t.co/hQqAza8GGP Our total return index is at https://t.co/vta9eqevnU The ETF WTBN tracks our Index. biancoresearch.eth
Jens Nordvig 🇩🇰.. @jnordvig
59K Followers 2K Following PhD Economist, Founder+CEO @ExanteData & @MarketReaderInc Formerly: MD at Goldman, Head of Research at Nomura & Bridgewater. #1 Ranked by Institutional Investor
Rishi Mishra @aRishisays
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Ed Bradford @Fullcarry
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Matthew C. Klein @M_C_Klein
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Steve Hou (“LEASE M.. @stevehouf
20K Followers 2K Following Research @Bloomberg Indices, formerly @aqrcapital, @umichEcon PhD, @ETH and @UVA, always “advanced degree hater”, opinions my own.
Julia Coronado @jc_econ
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301 Followers 1K Following Musings. Data backed Economics. NIPA disciple. Multiple degrees. Guardian against Econo bullies. Want to help U 🌲🌲🐍🐍🌴🌴🌲🌲🌿🌿🐍🐍🌲🌲🌲🌲🌴🌴🐍🐍🌴🌲🌲
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176 Followers 58 Following Chief Investment Officer @_BlueTrust. All posts are for informational and educational purposes only. View our full social media disclosures with the link below.
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22K Followers 3K Following Eaton Professor of Economics at the University of Colorado, Bloomberg columnist, and independent blogger on economics, politics, religion & fighting obesity
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Tom Dans, CFA 🇺�.. @TomDansCFA
646 Followers 419 Following former Trump @USTreasury, US Arctic Commissioner, Visiting Fellow @Heritage Foundation | Texan ✝️ | Opinions=mine | по-русски
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PDS @TopadoDuran
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Alpha Chaser @gimme_alpha
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Historic Vids @historyinmemes
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Donald J. Trump Posts.. @TrumpDailyPosts
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127 Followers 526 Following Working in the Hedge Fund Industry. Main interests on FI and FX.
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Manish Singh @Manish_05Singh
4K Followers 2K Following Dad of two | Buy side, CIO | @iitbombay Alum | ex UBS, Societe Generale |Historian | Not Investment advice | MUFC | ALL VIEWS MY OWN 🇮🇳🇬🇧🇨🇳🇺🇸👨👩👧👦
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Recently, the probability of high inflation outcomes has declined in the US but not the Euro Area. (2/2) federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/t… #EconTwitter #FEDSPaper
Atlanta Fed now at 4.2%. atlantafed.org/cqer/research/…
Biggest two-week decline in inflation expectations (as judged by 10 inf swap) since the period after the release of the December PCE report (the trough in 6m annualized core PCE Inflation).
"We keep hearing about consumers stretching themselves and taking on too much credit, but this really isn't the case..." @RenMacLLC's Dutta
THE WHITE HOUSE TRADING DESK, STILL LOOKING PRETTY GOOD In the newsletter today, wrote about the SPR increasingly transforming into a vehicle that actually makes sense in 2024. Sub to the newsletter here --> bloomberg.com/account/newsle…
I think it’s reasonable to think that if the Fed cuts back its communication with the public, that would benefit “well informed” investors at the expense of “poorly informed” ones. I think that would be bad!
2/ Another lesson: Fundamentals ie economic data really matter. In fact, this has been the key finding for me in all this work: The majority of the increase in nominal bond yields over the last 18 months are around major data releases (here just NFP/CPI/PCE).
Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari, in convo with @jeannasmialek at @MilkenInstitute, says he needs to see "multiple" good inflation reports to cut rates -- at least 2 or 3 such reports. "The most likely scenario is that we sit here for an extended period of time."
JPMORGAN: The US consumer’s net worth “has increased ~$37T, or +33.6%, since the beginning of 2020, including $5T in realized capital gains from 2020 – 2022. Those capital gains, even if taxed at 37%, means that [Fed models] are undercounting Consumer cash levels by at least $3T.…
@molly0xFFF Hearing “bitcoin” and then an entire stadium full of people groan is weirdly cathartic
Not a print to raise the OCR with. *AUSTRALIA 1Q RETAIL SALES FALL 0.4% Q/Q; EST. -0.3%
This was the last letter my grandfather received from his father, who was murdered in Auschwitz. #HolocaustMemorialDay
1/ @nealemahoney and I are back at it, along with our wonderfully talented colleague @giacomofcr, examining Bad News Bias in gas prices. Using a dataset of over 1.1 million transcripts from 2004-2023, we make several new findings. briefingbook.info/p/bad-news-bia…
Don’t know what Netflix paid for this Tom Brady Roast, but him getting roasted on FTX — with a side jab at Gronk — was worth it
This is very interesting. Not often discussed is the technological impact on pricing strategies regarding rents. Even less, is the mom & pop landlord shifts. I’ve mentioned this before. So, this especially confirms my own bias. Still, important & under appreciated. Cheers 🥂🍻
Nice anecdotal evidence here supporting our theory @medleyadvisors that housing inflation would be stickier than many expected due to the shifting pricing strategies from mom-and-pop landlords, who control over 40% of all rental units my.medleyadvisors.com/research/medle…
More recently, an array of risk experts from different sectors--private (PRS Group), academic (V-Dem), and NGO (World Bank)--have noted further deterioration in US political institutions. /8
This commentary from $AMH earnings last Friday on mom & pops having better rental pricing information is something I’ve thought about this cycle, namely impact on OER & overall inflation. It sounds like mom & pops historically underpriced rents, which now isn’t as much the case.
How Richard Nixon Pressured Arthur Burns: Evidence from the Nixon Tapes - American Economic Association aeaweb.org/articles?id=10…
Suggested policy here is the opposite of macroprudential If macro policymakers seek to curb consumer spending, tightening HELOC growth would be preferable to pure rate hike reliance (which has supply effects & relies on bankshot effects to meaningfully affect consumption)
In contrast to the new wage data I highlighted earlier today, this makes the case that there might be a new nominal spending impulse in the pipeline that could justify even higher interest rates: ft.com/content/1d287e…
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