Julia Coronado @jc_econ
Founder MPP (yeah you know me), UT Austin Prof, NABE Prez Former: chief economist at various financial firms & Fed economist Passionate @ family, macro, cats macropolicyperspectives.com Austin, TX Joined September 2012-
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The step down in consumer spending in Q1 was led by a decline in goods spending as consumers appear to be reverting back to a pre pandemic budget share at a faster pace
Wholesale used vehicle prices (mix, mileage & seasonally adj) based on @Manheim_US Index declined 1.9% in first 15 days of April compared to full month of March leaving the Index down 13.7% y/y. NSA price down 0.2% and down 11.6% y/y. publish.manheim.com/content/publis…
No "virtually all" economists did not forecast a recession last year, a decent minority of us saw self reinforcing labor market strength and scope for supply side improvement to keep growth on track despite the galloping rate hikes...
Is inflation reaccelerating, getting stuck or are we on a bumpy path down. The diffusion index of % of prices rising vs falling favors the latter--after soaring to >90 in 2022 it fell to 21.6 in Feb despite upside surprises. This was b/w 90-100 for years in the 70s...
Is inflation reaccelerating, getting stuck or are we on a bumpy path down. The diffusion index of % of prices rising vs falling favors the latter--after soaring to >90 in 2022 it fell to 21.6 in Feb despite upside surprises. This was b/w 90-100 for years in the 70s... https://t.co/H2fSewFC11
It matters what we spend our money on...
CPI motor vehicle insurance is up more than 20% 6m saar and was a major source of heat in March. PPI motor vehicle insurance is up only 7% 6m saar but typically these series move together. @BLS_gov what is going on?
Delighted to have @jc_econ on the show this week to discuss the U.S. productivity surge, what Chair Powell really thinks about the soft landing, CRE risk, the Fed navigating politics during an election year, and more! (1/4) directory.libsyn.com/episode/index/…
🎙️Listen to the latest episode of "ECON-versations with NABE" now! @jc_econ and @nick_bunker delve into the data from last Friday's @BLS_gov #jobsreport and @indeed's own data. Listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify here: linktr.ee/nabe_econ
cool article about dynamic pricing from nyt. more widespread adoption could change the dynamics of inflation but not necessarily the level. raises interesting questions for monetary policy which is thought to work through prices being sticky nytimes.com/2024/04/06/bus…
This is an important point! Involuntary part timers are still low & female labor force engagement is at all time highs, maybe the strong job market forced employers to offer more part time & WFH engagements to get the workers they need
This is an important point! Involuntary part timers are still low & female labor force engagement is at all time highs, maybe the strong job market forced employers to offer more part time & WFH engagements to get the workers they need
Me when people talk smack about the US economy
Speaking about the US economy is negative terms is just increasingly absurd, the US is experiencing supply side boom and is the only real engine of growth in the global economy. Strong jobs, abundant labor supply, solid productivity, cooling inflation pressures? Goldilocks AF
The FOMC discourse around productivity is curious to me--if productivity gains don't last then you should be expecting a more rapid slowing in growth at the current level of interest rates (r > r*) rather than a reacceleration in inflation
Me too!
i think you can argue that tighter monetary/fiscal policy contributed to consumers becoming more price sensitive => reduced the burst of pricing power firms enjoyed during the pandemic => pressured margins => reduced labor demand
i think you can argue that tighter monetary/fiscal policy contributed to consumers becoming more price sensitive => reduced the burst of pricing power firms enjoyed during the pandemic => pressured margins => reduced labor demand
Why is the equity market up so much with a basically unchanged dot plot? Because productivity is expected to continue which will allow stronger growth with little additional inflationary pressure. This scenario is good for risk assets. #FOMC @lisaabramowicz1 @FerroTV
Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart
356K Followers 6K Following One half of Bloomberg's Odd Lots Podcast. One quarter of Light Sweet Crude.
Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos
324K Followers 111 Following Chief economics correspondent, The Wall Street Journal • Author, "Trillion Dollar Triage”
Joey Politano 🏳️.. @JosephPolitano
64K Followers 1K Following Writing a data-driven newsletter about economics @ https://t.co/IanQ9oPoPi | Nuance? In this economy? | he/him | Bi/pan
Jason Furman @jasonfurman
157K Followers 2K Following Professor of Practice at Harvard. Teaches Ec 10, some tweets might be educational. Also Senior Fellow @PIIE. Was Chair of President Obama's CEA.
Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited
138K Followers 688 Following CIO at @UnlimitedFnds | PM of $HFND | Fmr IC @Bridgewater | Described as one of the "sane" voices on #fintwit | Comments are not investment advice
Skanda Amarnath @IrvingSwisher
26K Followers 5K Following Executive Director - @employamerica. RTs/likes != endorsements. https://t.co/tKsuuvVYoc @skandaamarnath on other sites. Charitable interpretation advised
Brad Setser @Brad_Setser
97K Followers 953 Following CFR senior fellow. Views are my own. Retweets are not endorsements. Writes on sovereign debt and capital flows.
Adam Ozimek @ModeledBehavior
83K Followers 869 Following Chief economist at @InnovateEconomy. Host of the EconTwitter Water Cooler, live on twitter spaces and downloadable here: https://t.co/toyjfDruRu
Dario Perkins @darioperkins
60K Followers 2K Following MD Global Macro @TS_Lombard, macro themes/research/risks, central-bank specialist, started career at HM Treasury in late 90s, ex ABN AMRO, AC Milan fan
Diane Swonk @DianeSwonk
46K Followers 615 Following Chief Economist, @KPMG_US. Briefs Federal Reserve. Trained labor economist. 36 yrs experience in financial services & consulting . RTs not endorsements. She/her
Jeanna Smialek @jeannasmialek
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Jens Nordvig 🇩🇰.. @jnordvig
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Tracy Alloway @tracyalloway
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Matt Darling 🌐🏗.. @besttrousers
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Matthew C. Klein @M_C_Klein
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Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart
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Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos
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Joey Politano 🏳️.. @JosephPolitano
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Conor Sen @conorsen
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Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited
138K Followers 688 Following CIO at @UnlimitedFnds | PM of $HFND | Fmr IC @Bridgewater | Described as one of the "sane" voices on #fintwit | Comments are not investment advice
Skanda Amarnath @IrvingSwisher
26K Followers 5K Following Executive Director - @employamerica. RTs/likes != endorsements. https://t.co/tKsuuvVYoc @skandaamarnath on other sites. Charitable interpretation advised
Brad Setser @Brad_Setser
97K Followers 953 Following CFR senior fellow. Views are my own. Retweets are not endorsements. Writes on sovereign debt and capital flows.
Adam Ozimek @ModeledBehavior
83K Followers 869 Following Chief economist at @InnovateEconomy. Host of the EconTwitter Water Cooler, live on twitter spaces and downloadable here: https://t.co/toyjfDruRu
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Dario Perkins @darioperkins
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Diane Swonk @DianeSwonk
46K Followers 615 Following Chief Economist, @KPMG_US. Briefs Federal Reserve. Trained labor economist. 36 yrs experience in financial services & consulting . RTs not endorsements. She/her
Jeanna Smialek @jeannasmialek
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Jens Nordvig 🇩🇰.. @jnordvig
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191K Followers 5K Following Co-host of the Odd Lots podcast. I like financial crisis hindsight, spurious correlation and puppies. London ➡️ New York ➡️ Abu Dhabi ➡️ Hong Kong ➡️ New York
Olivier Blanchard @ojblanchard1
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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk
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Lauren McGaughy 🎧 @lmcgaughy
26K Followers 5K Following Investigative reporter & editor for The Texas Newsroom @NPR @KUT • Ex-@dallasnews @houstonchron @NOLAnews • FOIA nerd • hoya | who dat • she | her [email protected]
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The Budget Lab @The_Budget_Lab
687 Followers 8 Following The Budget Lab at Yale is a non-partisan policy research center dedicated to providing in-depth analysis of federal proposals for the American economy.
KUT Austin @KUT
113K Followers 2K Following Austin's NPR station. A community supported public media newsroom sharing news and information on-air at 90.5 FM & online. Support us at https://t.co/Qh13edL8IU
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NEW: @UTAustin changes its message again, now says students arrested during protests will not have their access to campus restricted at all. They could face bans to campus at a later date -- once finals are over. Here's our updated story: kut.org/education/2024…
One topic almost all economists agree on, The policies that Arthur Burns, chair of the Fed during the Nixon administration, followed to "consult" with the president were a disaster - leading to prolonged period of inflation. I hope today's WSJ article on the Fed are not serious.
🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨Trump’s allies are drafting proposals to erode Fed independence if he wins a second term. If you don't like inflation (among other terrible economic outcomes), this should be a 5-alarm fire wsj.com/economy/centra…
@jc_econ And this should also keep a lid on goods prices, a bright spot in the overall index.
It is worth watching this CNN video from the moment Emory Econ Professor @CarolineFohlin came across the violent arrest of a protester on campus and asked the police, with shock, "What are you doing?" That's all that prompted an officer to hurl her to the ground and handcuff her.
A CNN crew witnessed at least two professors detained by Atlanta police, including @EmoryUniversity economics professor Caroline Fohlin and Noëlle McAfee, chair of the philosophy department. #FreePalestine cnn.com/business/live-…
Last week: we’ll use tariffs to prevent countries from buying dollars. This week: we’ll use tariffs to make countries keep buying dollars.
NEW: Trump’s economic advisers are considering ways to actively stop nations from shifting away from using the dollar, sources tell me, @nancook + @JenniferJJacobs Penalties being discussed: export controls, currency manipulation charges and tariffs bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
The rebalancing process means lower share of goods spending via prices (more deflation) and quantities. It also means service inflation can run a little hotter than normal to allow the share of spending in services to revert to pre-pandemic. Labor supply allows this process to…
The step down in consumer spending in Q1 was led by a decline in goods spending as consumers appear to be reverting back to a pre pandemic budget share at a faster pace
@jc_econ Makes perfect sense considering how long FFR had been > 5% and yield curve has been inverted.
The Dobbs decision led to a sharp rise in women deciding that if they’re not allowed to control their fertility, they'll eliminate it. economist.com/graphic-detail…
For all of those saying Maxey didn’t have control when Nurse called timeout
This day is a major milestone in building the future of American rail and the jobs that come with it. Today we celebrate the groundbreaking of the Brightline West high-speed rail project, connecting Las Vegas to Southern California.
Dominant theme at these IMF/WB spring meetings was "US exceptionalism," the idea that US is outgrowing the Euro zone in particular. With all the talk about this, it's worth noting that nothing is priced. The 2y2y forward rate differential isn't even at its historical highs...
IMF/WB spring meetings themes 1. Is "last mile" disinflation harder? (NO) 2. Are we seeing a US productivity miracle? (NO) 3. Have China data picked up in recent months? (YES) 4. Has greed undercut sanctions implementation? (YES) 5. Is Europe in serious trouble as a result? (YES)
Always happy to meet many influential female colleagues during the #IMFMeetings!
Every unreal economist deserves a puppy so cute that it’s unreal. May I introduce Otto, the little poodle! 💖
best Fed chair in millennials' life post-Volcker? <still seen as goat by many. gave economy "tough medicine" Greenspan: gave us The Put/huge gains but missed housing bubble Bernanke: stopped depression but 1st HIKED into ARMs?? Yellen: steady! but needless hikes? Powell: TBD?
@talmonsmith I think Yellen deserves credit as the chair who really transitioned to prioritizing full employment. The problem is that she tried to do it while working off a pretty conventional Philips Curve model (and assumptions about r*). Powell & Co. realized that wasn’t tenable.
Travis County District Attorney José Garza has issued a statement on the effort to remove him from office under a 2023 state law. Background from @KUT here: kut.org/politics/2024-…
"You need to always see what [China] is doing, not what they're saying." Leland Miller of China Beige Book says China's trade surpluses are here to stay bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
.@nhannahjones swats away this notion journalism ≠ advocacy. "I don’t understand how we think journalism is not advocacy," @nhannahjones She points to the WaPo motto: "Democracy dies in darkness."
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