talmon joseph smith @talmonsmith
economics reporter @NYTimes for @nytimesbusiness || formerly @GQmagazine, NYU, @tufts|| newyorleanian || [email protected]|| rep’d by @aevitascreative nytimes.com/by/talmon-jose… NYC via NOLA⚜️ Joined September 2015-
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We have a tax on unrealized gains already (this is just property taxes), which even the smallest county in the country manages to administer. People hate it because they would prefer to have more wealth rather than less, but that is no different than the usual anti-tax sociopathy
We have a tax on unrealized gains already (this is just property taxes), which even the smallest county in the country manages to administer. People hate it because they would prefer to have more wealth rather than less, but that is no different than the usual anti-tax sociopathy
2/ There seems to be some residual seasonality in private sector benefit costs (and perhaps also in other ECI series). As with the pre-pandemic period, benefit costs continue to grow more slowly than wages - so wage growth overstates inflation cost pressures coming from labor.
Markets are currently pricing one rate cut this year – and that cut is only fully priced in by December.
the Fed's gotta hike
No disrespect to @SantiagoAuFund @FinancialReview @AndreasSteno or @Noahpinion because I read and respect all four. But the media noise on JPY has reached a fever pitch you see at the end of moves, not the start. 1. Visceral, crisis language? ✅ 2. Crazy extrapolation-style…
Employment cost index came in fairly strong. An interesting note is that pay for unionized workers is now only catching up to the wage growth for non-union workers.
"Banks want to charge her interest as high as 14% for business loans...Ms. Jolasun knows that borrowing costs are driven by the Fed. But she assumes [Trump] is more in tune with the needs of business owners. So she is seriously contemplating giving him her vote" H4L = trump win?
Political ground on housing has fundamentally shifted in the last five years, and some of the biggest changes have been at the state-level. I wrote about how to think about these new bills and new laws vox.com/policy/2413626…
Like father like daughter 😌
DO I HAVE TO WATCH VEEP? 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
DO I HAVE TO WATCH VEEP? 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
Drew Barrymore interviews everybody like they have coke and she doesn’t have any money.
Drew Barrymore interviews everybody like they have coke and she doesn’t have any money.
white girls in spring be like i love lauryn hill
best econ story ive seen this month by @ChrisRugaber here. full of data nuggets, earnings info, illustrative anecdotes and much more. not full of reflexive demonization of wage earners
best econ story ive seen this month by @ChrisRugaber here. full of data nuggets, earnings info, illustrative anecdotes and much more. not full of reflexive demonization of wage earners https://t.co/bFl1Y7Ck19
cmon Oer! cmon boy! roll over!
good news: "Delinquencies dipped, and the average credit score is up by one point, now at 702. The dip was likely driven by people using their tax refunds to pay off debt. •Credit utilization went down while balances rose modestly....these two metrics usually move in tandem."
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4K Followers 833 Following Investor/economist of my own AUM. Author of "The Business Cycle is Dead". "Everyone is a social justice warrior, until it comes to China."We have a tax on unrealized gains already (this is just property taxes), which even the smallest county in the country manages to administer. People hate it because they would prefer to have more wealth rather than less, but that is no different than the usual anti-tax sociopathy
The proposed tax on unrealized capital gains would apply only to individuals with $100 million or more in income and assets. So no, if you own a house that has appreciated more than $400k in value, you would not have to pay any cap gains tax on it before you sell.
2/ There seems to be some residual seasonality in private sector benefit costs (and perhaps also in other ECI series). As with the pre-pandemic period, benefit costs continue to grow more slowly than wages - so wage growth overstates inflation cost pressures coming from labor.
Markets are currently pricing one rate cut this year – and that cut is only fully priced in by December.
Employment cost index came in fairly strong. An interesting note is that pay for unionized workers is now only catching up to the wage growth for non-union workers.
My mom, a retired HS math teacher, would probably roll her eyes angrily at someone using a 25 percent interest credit card to start a small business.
"Banks want to charge her interest as high as 14% for business loans...Ms. Jolasun knows that borrowing costs are driven by the Fed. But she assumes [Trump] is more in tune with the needs of business owners. So she is seriously contemplating giving him her vote" H4L = trump win?
I'm surprised there isn't more discussion about interest rates and their role in economic pessimism right now. Especially young people who can't afford homes or cars.
"Banks want to charge her interest as high as 14% for business loans...Ms. Jolasun knows that borrowing costs are driven by the Fed. But she assumes [Trump] is more in tune with the needs of business owners. So she is seriously contemplating giving him her vote" H4L = trump win?
@arindube These comments must come with the qualification that these data are erratic and subject to large revisions, so the picture may look different with revised data, but we have to work with the data available now.
@arindube Again, the profit share has been rising the last two quarters, so it's pretty hard to tell a story that excessive wage growth is driving inflation.
ECI Private Wages & Salaries grew at 4.5% annualized between December and March (1.1% not annualized). YY at 4.3%. Pre-pandemic, a good rule of thumb for sustainable nominal wage growth would have been ~3.5 (2% inflation target, 1.5% trend productivity). That said... /1
Some personal news. I'm thrilled to join @econliberties and get the opportunity to contribute to their very important work. Bonus: I got a mention in @playbookdc for something other than my birthday.
Another fantastic addition to @econliberties as we welcome @helaineolen! We’ve been admirers of Helaine’s reporting for years and are excited to have her join us in the fight against monopolies.
Japan should just let its currency devalue. What is the point of propping it up?
Good @Bloomberg story on the rapid fall in the Yen and Japan’s efforts to stop the slide. First line of defense when your currency is falling is to let interest rates rise. Japan can’t do that as this would cause a fiscal crisis. Japan is trapped… bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Political ground on housing has fundamentally shifted in the last five years, and some of the biggest changes have been at the state-level. I wrote about how to think about these new bills and new laws vox.com/policy/2413626…
So excited to announce I’m joining @verge as a senior tech reporter leading the publication’s coverage of AI! theverge.com/2024/4/30/2414…
Columbia University protestors get upset when I talk about STAR WARS
i can think of 1 instance where a rape joke is funny
I’m single if you need a wife and step mother. Hello. My god.
Like father like daughter 😌
DO I HAVE TO WATCH VEEP? 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
Julia Louis-Dreyfus seemed to be not PC and hilarious just fine.
Zion Williamson saying lackadaisical
Another data point suggesting trend PCE is running 2 1/2-3% right now.
The NY Fed's measure of inflation persistence (the "multivariate core trend" rate) declined to 2.6% in March from a downwardly revised 2.7% in February (originally 2.9%) and from 3% in January newyorkfed.org/research/polic…