Conor Sen @conorsen
Columnist for @opinion. Founder of Peachtree Creek Investments. Sun Belt/monoculture enthusiast. The future is a policy choice. bloomberg.com/opinion/author… Atlanta, GA Joined September 2009-
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All of these tidbits from companies that went through cyclical downturns add up to something. Hard to identify big GDP or market movers that are still declining.
All of these tidbits from companies that went through cyclical downturns add up to something. Hard to identify big GDP or market movers that are still declining.
If we do a March presidential year peak for a tech hype cycle then March 2000 should get syndication revenues.
$AMZN CEO @ajassy: "Companies have largely completed the lion's share of their cost optimization and turned their attention to new initiatives. Before the pandemic, companies were marching to modernize their infrastructure, moving from on-premises infrastructure to the cloud to…
$AMZN (for now) being boosted more by good cost control than being dinged for soft Q2 revenue guide.
YTD peaks: -March 7: MTUM -March 13: bitcoin -March 21: MSFT -March 22: Nasdaq 100 -March 25: NVDA -March 28: S&P 500, Russell 2000
Something like wages up 20-25%, nominal home prices up 15% on a 5-year basis — an environment supportive of continued construction and wages outpacing home price growth somewhat.
Something like wages up 20-25%, nominal home prices up 15% on a 5-year basis — an environment supportive of continued construction and wages outpacing home price growth somewhat.
Not sure if it’s repeatable, maybe it was just randomness, but as a left-of-center pro-establishment person this has been the best House GOP majority since I began following politics (early 2000’s). I got just about everything I could credibly hope for.
Resale homes are older, need work, and there aren’t many for sale (lock-in, etc.). All of this helped homebuilders this cycle. The story shifts when you compare California (super old housing and very locked-in) vs. Florida and Texas (newer housing and not as locked-in).
The fact that someone deciding between Penn and UNC is worried about finding a job speaks to a mix of irrationality and the lagged psychological impact of the labor market of the 2000’s-2010’s.
A nice rebound in @Glassdoor Employee Confidence index in April, rising to 47.8%, the highest since June 2023. Still a long way to go to recover to 2022 or even pre-Covid levels, but a positive sign for employee sentiment. 1/
Millennials are now ahead of Baby Boomers in inflation-adjusted home equity for this point in their lives.
Millennials are now ahead of Baby Boomers in inflation-adjusted home equity for this point in their lives.
The timing of this press release suggests they were waiting to see if the GOP would actually do it before laying their own (predictable) cards on the table. In any case, good resolution, and now we can move on.
The timing of this press release suggests they were waiting to see if the GOP would actually do it before laying their own (predictable) cards on the table. In any case, good resolution, and now we can move on.
$TREE: “It is becoming increasingly clear that the worst of this economic cycle is behind us, and the actions we have taken over the last year have positioned the Company to deliver profitable and accelerating growth as we progress through the remainder of 2024.”
.@RepKatCammack says MTG’s push to force a vote to remove Speaker Johnson “is dead.”
This seems reasonable to me — with all the noise in inflation components at the moment I like focusing on wage/income growth as a more stable way of thinking about inflation.
This seems reasonable to me — with all the noise in inflation components at the moment I like focusing on wage/income growth as a more stable way of thinking about inflation.
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51 Followers 79 Following@conorsen @VegaVandal @SkeleCap I know the arc of history bends towards people trading up. Still, because people bought housing a little later in life and kinda skipped the starter home, I wonder how many will have a similar attitude.
Listed options markets should be open now. It's 2024, FFS.
@conorsen Two weeks ago after we rallied I was told the low was in.
@conorsen I almost spilled out my coffee when I read this today. Maybe millennials back in 2009 were too broke to be an attractive target for scammers, idk New Job Scams Targeting Young Professionals Are Flourishing wsj.com/lifestyle/care…
USTs telling you the macro world has changed. If overnight rates are going to average 4.68ish for ten years, this is a new new normal
@JakeSherman The absurdity of this is that in order to REMOVE Speaker Johnson, they would need… wait for it… Democrat Leader Hakeem Jeffries to join them…
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@conorsen I think so big part of it is Biden and Dem leaders have played their cards effectively
@conorsen Maybe I’m just less optimistic about the supply side meeting demand where it really wants to be:
@BullandBaird On the margins at least things like settling for smaller houses (eg, townhome over SFH, 3 bedrooms instead of 4, etc.). We’re running out of “cheaper/smaller metros to move to” but they still exist - Austin/Nashville were once cheap and maybe Milwaukee/Detroit’s time will come.
@conorsen The bigger surprise to me in the Biden era is how many bipartisan things got done in the Senate with slim margins. Pre Georgia runoffs I was wondering if we’d even be able to confirm a cabinet.
@conorsen It's what we have now right? I guess my q is whether we're on the right trajectory, extended 5 years out, or whether homebuilding is currently too stilted to do a lot about affordability issues
@conorsen Plus a continued distribution of professional, 70th percentile income jobs from high to medium cost metros
@conorsen I could write a Story about this. I'm 45 & lost my career in 2011 jobs recession and until the day I die I'm "unemployable" bc it was impossible to restart my career.
The best GOP majority is a small GOP majority!
Not sure if it’s repeatable, maybe it was just randomness, but as a left-of-center pro-establishment person this has been the best House GOP majority since I began following politics (early 2000’s). I got just about everything I could credibly hope for.
@conorsen Not big enough or unified enough or competent enough to do anything Dems aren't ok with.
@conorsen A girl I know got her law degree at Columbia, and she backs up this girl’s assertion regarding competitive students in the Ivy League. My friend did have her pick of jobs following graduation, but UNC offers that opportunity as well. Education is what you make of it.
With over 150 homes severely damaged or destroyed here in Omaha it’s time to start thinking about the repercussions for the already depleted housing supply
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