Ed Bradford @Fullcarry
US government bond trader since '93 with the usual stints along the way at primary dealers and HFs. Now on my own. Pseudonym Darien, CT Joined February 2009-
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Just a reminder: the Japanese government has bought $1.2 trillion of dollars and euros since 2000 and is currently sitting on one of the biggest trading profits from fx in modern financial history
Just a reminder: the Japanese government has bought $1.2 trillion of dollars and euros since 2000 and is currently sitting on one of the biggest trading profits from fx in modern financial history https://t.co/zrQMXOmxDE
Its tough to make a quantitatively driven case that the interest income from higher rates has been an important driver of recent US GDP growth. Since rates meaningfully started rising in 2022, HH interest income is up about 275bln while overall GDP is up 3.6tln:
There are other ways to figure out a rough quantity, as early as tomorrow I think.
A decade ago, Fed officials looked at very low rates and sluggish growth to conclude the “neutral” interest rate must be lower. Today, the inverse may be happening: growth is resilient amid new sources of investment demand and higher fiscal deficits wsj.com/economy/centra…
Yenspotting, ie the practice of going long JPY when its MOF "watching carefully" weak and waiting for the "inevitable" intervention just isn't working this time as the currency takes out its LTCM lows of 1998
I am surprised NQ softening after the inflation data esp with Ts responding favorably
Andy Constan @dampedspring
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2K Followers 1K Following US Treasury Futures Curve, Fixed Income, Yield Curve “You lose it here and you’re in a world of hurt”@Fullcarry Tremendous chart. Thanks for putting that together and sharing.
@Fullcarry Why don't they just follow ECB, they seem to have a more graceful way of dealing with it
Treasury notes that the tremendous migration is raising the bar on what it takes to be a "good" employment report. We need 200k jobs a month to maintain the unemployment rate, up from 100k a month before.
@Fullcarry I see. Someone was talking $1.2T and I was like the hell.
Just a reminder: the Japanese government has bought $1.2 trillion of dollars and euros since 2000 and is currently sitting on one of the biggest trading profits from fx in modern financial history
& well, the Government of Japan is long dollars in a big way: its solvency improves as the yen weakens. That is in a sense why there hasn't been urgency to use monetary policy to support the yen. But there also is nothing wrong with taking a few profits to help households 3/3
They literally said, "Okay, Boomer..."
Generational transition data point: washingtonpost.com/sports/2024/04…
@Fullcarry You forgot Tim Cook who visited China like 2 months ago.
@Fullcarry likely already a party member, so no surprise
"What is this QRA stock?" - someone on FinTwit.... @VolatilityWiz
Its tough to make a quantitatively driven case that the interest income from higher rates has been an important driver of recent US GDP growth. Since rates meaningfully started rising in 2022, HH interest income is up about 275bln while overall GDP is up 3.6tln:
@Fullcarry They will go right back to challenge MoF/BoJ.
@Fullcarry I am sure they are watching, if they intervened it's through an offshore C.B not the BoJ or onshore japanese banks.
@Fullcarry I need to look into importing hot Japanese sports cars..After 25 years the US waives EPA, DOT, etc rules, no restrictions on import..Potential profits as collector cars & big fun if you’re driving the inventory & have a track or other way to realize their entertainment potential.
@Fullcarry Hah. Me too.
Welcome
@Fullcarry They opened a bar on shibuya sky check it bro