Rishi Mishra @aRishisays
Rates strategist | Patriot | Feminist | Allergic to hypocrisy. Follow me for some cheap tricks & cheesy one-liners! Whack follol de rah! Montreal, Canada Joined April 2011-
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A new centrally cleared era in repo markets is looming, which will cause an exodus from its shadowy yet most systemic regions. This may increase resiliency but also inhibit key trades gluing U.S. Treasury markets together. The Repo Leverage Squeeze™ is here... 1/
Interesting that options on SFRZ4 are offering similar odds on both the tails: reflation/no landing (94.25/94.0 ps 12k bot at 1.5) and recession/hard landing (96.0/97.0 cs 30k bot at 5.5/5.75).
The fact that "long and variable lags" are now not so long, and perhaps more variable than in the past is not lost on the Fed. Forward Guidance can influence expectations of the future path of policy, thereby effecting financial conditions long before an actual change in policy…
Can we stop asking central bankers leading questions on whether something's off the table? Journo: Is X off the table? Central Banker: No, X is not entirely off the table. If the data evolves in a way that makes X necessary, we will do X. News- "CB says X is on the table" 🤦
Alright, I have been doxed! 😂
BLS: "The New Tenant Rent Index (R-CPI-NTR) measures prices renters would face if they changed housing units every period." Probably, the most reasonable bull case for Whites and Reds:
*POWELL: BANK OF CANADA DELEGATES ARE REALLY FUNNY, AND GOOD TO HAVE DINNER WITH WHEN YOU'RE LONG WAY FROM HOME, LIKE IN BASEL.
Another softer than expected inflation report in Canada. The divergence in 3m Annualized Core CPI vs the US is quite remarkable, which explains where the CGB-UST, COFR spreads are trading. Bank of Canada's Macklem speaking later today, with Powell. He won't confirm June, but it's…
via @AnnaEconomist at BBG. Remember folks, Joe said it first - the stock market IS the economy! 🔥
via @AnnaEconomist at BBG. Remember folks, Joe said it first - the stock market IS the economy! 🔥 https://t.co/ir7hcehUMm
Golden words from @KansasCityFed's Schmid on the Balance Sheet: "...our current pace of balance sheet reduction is not creating strains in funding markets... If runoff began to unexpectedly stress funding markets...SRF would be available to prevent a significant increase in…
Golden words from @KansasCityFed's Schmid on the Balance Sheet: "...our current pace of balance sheet reduction is not creating strains in funding markets... If runoff began to unexpectedly stress funding markets...SRF would be available to prevent a significant increase in…
Y/Y is not the best way of thinking about inflation when massive base effects are involved Core PCE 3m & 6m annualized were both under 2% in Dec; Fed projects on a 3m/3m basis, which continues to normalize, though at a slower pace. So, no, inflation didn't bottom 9 months ago!
Y/Y is not the best way of thinking about inflation when massive base effects are involved Core PCE 3m & 6m annualized were both under 2% in Dec; Fed projects on a 3m/3m basis, which continues to normalize, though at a slower pace. So, no, inflation didn't bottom 9 months ago! https://t.co/r00pvudIyZ
Have to say, this Bernanke review of the BoE's forecasting process and communication couldn't have been a bigger waste of time. Boilerplate logorrhea!
Four years ago, the global economy shifted to goods-driven due to the COVID-19 pandemic. @SamuelRines outlines the subsequent transition of the U.S. economy to services-driven and the potential implications for investors. bit.ly/4d4SSMG
PTSD from the 2019 repo blowout continues to cast a big shadow. Hence the 'fairly soon' taper, even though reserves are abundant, and QT's running smoothly. Reflects lack of confidence in their LcLOR estimates, and perhaps a 'there's little downside in going slower' thinking.
Sam Rogers: "For those of you who have never been through this before, this is what the beginning of a VaR shock looks like" (second biggest move in 5s in ten years)
Ugly 10y auction. 3.1bps tail. Dealers taking 24%, despite the sell-off going in, and the fact NFP, CPI all behind us. Have not seen an auction rejected like this in a while!
This was prescient! 😂
Bank of Canada: recent progress (disinflation) is encouraging; the data since January have increased our confidence that inflation will continue to come down gradually even as economic activity strengthens. They now expect CPI to end 2024 at 2.2%. Lays the groundwork for a cut…
Andy Constan @dampedspring
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192 Followers 102 Following We are a private limited company that provides services in the global derivatives markets.A new centrally cleared era in repo markets is looming, which will cause an exodus from its shadowy yet most systemic regions. This may increase resiliency but also inhibit key trades gluing U.S. Treasury markets together. The Repo Leverage Squeeze™ is here... 1/
2015 vs 2024 🍊
If you have ever worked in foreign exchange sales or trading you know why “What time is BOJ?” Is funny. You might even feel some mild form of PTSD from it. To celebrate tomorrow’s BOJ, Spectra Markets made a hoodie featuring this question, posed in Japanese. Available now…
I tried walking in telling them I was here for my weekly meeting with the Monarch, but they turned me away. 🤣 Happy to be in London-town meeting with valued clients.
It is actually quite interesting as to how many good state schools exist in CA....I wonder why any CA resident goes outside the state....tried convincing my k8ds to go to rutgers...with zero success...
I’m seeing some agitation around UCSD admissions rules for computer science majors that seem… not wildly unreasonable?
Has anyone, in the history of mankind, ever experienced an on time flight in the USA? Not me. 3 hours late and now have to wait another 30 minutes on the tarmac because @AmericanAir could not be fucked to provide a gate… I absolutely hate travelling in the USA. In that regard…
@NUMISMATICS9 @MadelnCanada @kevinmuir @aRishisays Not as a pet, but as an equal and noble member of the household
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BONUS ODD LOTS: @tracyalloway and I talked to Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin in Mt. Airy, NC about his macro outlook and why he's not too worried about the hotter-than-expected inflation prints we've seen so far in 2024. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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We know CBs can never accept the MMT view that higher rates are stimulative. Instead, they will keep raising their mystical r* estimates. So IF you believe MMT on this (I dont), rates are going a lot higher than anyone can imagine. (And we'll get a huge boom 😉) @StephanieKelton