George Goncalves @bondstrategist
Bond market veteran: +25yr on sellside & buyside focused on rates, credit, USD funding, Fed & global macro. My tweets are opinions, not advice! RT≠endorsements! Tri-State Area Joined August 2009-
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This, from @TheEconomist, points to an important economic, social, and financial challenge facing the US and several other countries: With limited cash buffers, rising credit card balances, and disappearing pandemic savings, lower-income households face mounting financial…
GOOLSBEE: HARDER TO GET TO 2% INFLATION ABSENT HOUSING PROGRESS Fortunately, shelter prices are heading lower.
The remaining distance to the Fed's 2% inflation target is mostly about rents. The big problem is in the Northeast and Midwest in particular, where new construction is a struggle. In the South and West, supply is surging and rents are coming down fast (bloomberg.com/news/articles/…)
@RiggsReport Remember July 2008 ECB hike (per-GFC they feared inflation) Remember Fed chair Powell October 2018 “far from neutral” and then credit machine stopped Policy mistakes happen in both directions, esp at inflection points…
U.S. Debt Interest Payments Reach $1 Trillion visualcapitalist.com/u-s-debt-inter… by @VisualCap
"Long Treasuries are once again yielding more than stocks. For a generation that had grown accustomed to a stock market that yielded more, making asset allocation decisions much easier, this development makes life much harder." bloomberg.com/opinion/articl… --@johnauthers, @opinion
👇See below clip and great to be on Yahoo Finance with @juleshyman & @joshuahlipton (and good timing post chair Powell’s comments and recent sell off in the bond market)… we are at an interesting crossroads for USTs, Oil & USD!
👇See below clip and great to be on Yahoo Finance with @juleshyman & @joshuahlipton (and good timing post chair Powell’s comments and recent sell off in the bond market)… we are at an interesting crossroads for USTs, Oil & USD!
.@bondstrategist says a summer rate cut could be the Fed's "down payment" toward easing: "If you miss the June, July window, the only reason then you would cut in September is if something progressively gets worse. It's almost better to go early and then skip a meeting."
The latest #CPI report showed higher-than-expected inflation due to stubbornly high shelter costs, which lag behind the CPI. Current rents, as seen in the New Tenant Rent Index, are much lower. Vacancy rates are also on the rise.
Bumpy road.. perspective is needed or a few years living in an EM country. DM folks are not familiar with price propagation in normal times so they confuse bumpy road with inflation broadening @DanielSLoeb1 another one for #UncleLarry
Bumpy road.. perspective is needed or a few years living in an EM country. DM folks are not familiar with price propagation in normal times so they confuse bumpy road with inflation broadening @DanielSLoeb1 another one for #UncleLarry
Back in 2021, small businesses wanted to hire more more workers but there weren’t many around. Today, willing workers are available but small businesses don’t want to hire them.
#yields 10-year overshoots (below and above) channel. Within current pattern - do we stop here, or spike to new highs to complete the pattern? Or is this all just chart voodoo ...... Hopefully food for thought for those who care.
"Nobody has a clue what the terminal rate is"
To understand why: - Car insurance has a significant weight in CPI, and it added 0.1% to yesterday's core CPI - PCE inflation is what the Fed watches instead of CPI - The data source for the car insurance component in PCE comes from PPI, not CPI - PPI came in low => higher…
Auto insurance in PPI, which is what goes into PCE, came in much cooler than CPI in March month-to-month: 0.1%, versus CPI's 2.6%. That difference alone will shave ~10bps off of monthly core PCE in March relative to core CPI.
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Well, the Business Dynamics revision is up and turns out that Birth/Death models weren't all that inaccurate (/s). As a reminder, they projected 264K jobs created NSA (roughly 100K jobs per month seasonally adjusted). The actual data was a LOSS of 198K jobs. So the net 500K jobs…
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NEARLY 40% OF HOMEOWNERS COULDN’T AFFORD THEIR HOME IF THEY WERE TO BUY IT TODAY: REDFIN
Yields on 10-year Treasuries have been above the S&P 500 earnings yield for three straight weeks. This is the first time we're seeing this since 2002: Jonestrading's Michael O'Rourke
To clear the debate once and for all. Higher interest rates might be stimulative until more households and corporates have to refinance their debt. At that point all they can stimulate is a recession.
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People Who Rent Will Decide the 2024 Presidential Election Immigration won't decide the election. Polls have not yet captured what will. This may come as a surprise, but the top issue housing. More explicitly, it's shelter costs. mishtalk.com/economics/peop…
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'The major averages may still be trending higher, but the total numbers of issues traded on the NYSE and Nasdaq peaked back in January 2022 and have been declining since then. This is not a bullish sign for the financial markets.' mcoscillator.com/learning_cente… by @McClellanOsc
GOOLSBEE: HARDER TO GET TO 2% INFLATION ABSENT HOUSING PROGRESS Fortunately, shelter prices are heading lower.
The Fed seems to be ignoring its own Beige Book: "Another frequent comment was that firms' ability to pass cost increases on to consumers had weakened considerably in recent months."
CTAs have sold off an estimated $20B in equities since Monday, but the selling flows from Vol control funds and Risk parity strategies have been much less aggressive. That leaves a lot of potential deleveraging risk on the table if volatility increases from here. $SPX $VIX
It’s hard to fight back against the private sector balance sheet plus fiscal argument presented above. But the key here is to stretch the world ''temporarily''. Yes: temporarily high rates can be stimulative but the refinancing cycle sooner or later kicks in. 8/
This is the perfect example of why it's so important to look beneath the headline. Philly fed rebounds to highest level in 2 years. Meanwhile, details show massive margin pressure which is squeezing employment and hours.
The remaining distance to the Fed's 2% inflation target is mostly about rents. The big problem is in the Northeast and Midwest in particular, where new construction is a struggle. In the South and West, supply is surging and rents are coming down fast (bloomberg.com/news/articles/…)
This chart summarizes the 700 pages of Piketty's Capital in the 21st Century If "r" (the return on capital) exceeds "g" (economic growth), inequalities increase over time, and workers lose wealth against capitalists