Michael Kao @UrbanKaoboy
GS Commodities Trader➡Canyon Cvt/Cap Arb➡Akanthos Multi-Arb/Distressed➡Kao Family Office🏦Globetrotter✈ Headbanger🤘Star Wars Fan🌌 Mixologist🍸Diver🤿 urbankaoboy.com Los Angeles, CA Joined March 2009-
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Paulo Macro @PauloMacro
140K Followers 264 Following Speculation is the search for truth in price and time. Not investment advice - just personal views. Blog at https://t.co/DD2iUKbdLz
Santiago Capital @SantiagoAuFund
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Le Shrub🌳🔥🇺�.. @agnostoxxx
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Angkor Thom South Gate, Angkor (near Siem Reap) - Cambodia : Angkor Thom (Great City) is quadrangle of defensive walls totaling 12km that once protected Khmer capital of the same name. Built in late 12th and early 13th Centuries CE, by King Jayavarman VII, walls are divided by…
@UrbanKaoboy @michaelxpettis @markets A CNY devaluation will put American mfg to rest, but I suspect they won't play that card yet, but continue to let unending deficit spending test the system.
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5/6 I am not saying that a maxi-devaluation is impossible, but I think it would suggest that Beijing had completely given up believing that it could do anything to boost domestic spending, and would almost certainly set off a much more virulent stage of trade war.
The collapse in JPY vs. USD isn't happening in a vacuum. This is one of the boldest moves in the yen relative to CNY since the post-2011 action. This is of critical importance, as we are talking about regional rivals that rank #2 and #4 in the global GDP order.
Super excited about this revolutionary innovation
@UrbanKaoboy All of the gains from freezing the Russian central bank assets have been more than negated by the significant level of loopholes and lack of enforcement of sanctions
@UrbanKaoboy Iranian proxies are all being funded with the dramatic loosening of sanctions and their capabilities and scope of activity has grown remarkably as a result of that
@incorre Sorry for being snippy. Here's my logic Okay. So some think bills percentage is bullish. But they don't have logic for it. What is bullish is lower than expected coupon issuance. The reason that low coupon issuance is bullish is that the private sector doesn't have to lever…
@UrbanKaoboy @stacksusan7 last three words LOL
The CNY is under pressure from *capital flows* seeing negative forward return. Until depreciation expectations stop, capital flight persists. The way to change it is not by intervention, but by changing the forward expect return through a lower price. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
@paulkrugman Doesn't this sort of thing guarantee you'll continue to be completely out of touch with 90% of Americans?
It makes NO sense for Japan's MoF to intervene to strengthen Yen (black), if - simultaneously - BoJ is buying JGBs (blue), which weakens Yen. This is what happened in 2022, when $/JPY was 140. We're now at 157, which tells you just how ineffective this kind of intervention is...
Unilateral intervention in large, developed world exchange rate markets is pretty useless without meaningful change in the underlying fundamentals. This round with JPY likely to be just another example. Already fading despite such a big push overnight. x.com/BobEUnlimited/…
Japanese intervention is useless and self-defeating, making it best to fade any immediate market move. Until the underlying macro fundamentals change the pressure on the exchange rate will persist. And right now US monetary/treasury policy matters a lot more than the MoF & BoJ:
He imposed a nearly 100% tax on people who bought his SPACs
“The tax could be designed as a minimum levy equivalent to 2% of the wealth of the super-rich,” write economic ministers of Germany, Spain, Brazil and South Africa in the Guardian. They say the levy would raise about $250 billion a year from some 3,000 billionaires and “would…
All true, which is why I expect any RMB devaluation is likely a post-election story (which is not so say you can't get some controlled weakness beforehand). A significant deval would probably get Trump elected. If Trump gets elected anyway, all bets are off...
$mbi PREPA x.com/FOMBPR/status/…
#FOMBPR believes a government bailout for @AEEONLINE is neither fiscally responsible nor feasible. To finance such bailout, the Government would have to raise money from Puerto Rico's residents through taxes or cut spending on important services.
$mbi PREPA The 1st Circuit allows R&D Master's appeal re conflicts of interest of OBoard's local attorneys O'Neill & Borges to proceed. x.com/cate_long/stat…
The 1st Circuit allows R&D Master's appeal re conflicts of interest of OBoard's local attorneys O'Neill & Borges to proceed. T3 court dismissed the conflict motion on grounds that R&D didnt have standing #muniland. The statute, PRRAD, requires that professionals not have an…
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