Marko Papic @Geo_papic
Geomacro strategist. Author of Geopolitical Alpha. Views on Twitter are my own. Santa Monica, California Joined March 2022-
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Yet another chart that really does not need any comment! (Next time someone tries to argue that Economics is a "hard science," please show them this chart).
How many PhDs does it take to invent a new variable in order to justify the "Election Put?" Apparently more than 400 PhDs. That is how many! 🙃
How many PhDs does it take to invent a new variable in order to justify the "Election Put?" Apparently more than 400 PhDs. That is how many! 🙃
Big thank you to @TopTradersLive and @jam_croissant! This was a lot of fun as always!
Big thank you to @TopTradersLive and @jam_croissant! This was a lot of fun as always!
Two diametrically different reads of US power right now: Reaction 1: US is only country in the world that can snatch 200+ projectiles out of the sky for its ally. Reaction 2: Nobody listens to US... not its ally or rivals. Both CAN be true at the same time. #multipolarity
More up to date chart of what I sent to @johnauthers. I don't know much, but it is CLEAR stocks are not down because of geopolitics. What is intriguing is that oil is struggling to break out even in these unprecedented times. Are bonds or oil wrong?
Thank you to my former colleague and dear friend (AND "cousin"!!) @JacobShap and of course @RealVision for the opportunity to talk all sorts of things about the markets and geopolitics!
Thank you to my former colleague and dear friend (AND "cousin"!!) @JacobShap and of course @RealVision for the opportunity to talk all sorts of things about the markets and geopolitics!
Live on @RealVision right now with @maggielake! If anyone wants to jump on as we discuss Iran-Israel tensions! Always fun to be on a call with friends from Real Vision.
Did anybody check if Iranian drones could be followed via FlightAware.com? (One of my favorite websites by the way!). I ask because we may have all just witnessed the most telegraphed "sneak attack" in human history!
Thank you to @CNBC for this late night hit. Was fun talking China, Trump, etc. cnbc.com/video/2024/03/…
Give a shout out to my man @ElClutch, @bcaresearch's own emerging superstar, for this🔥summer hit! I'm a bit sad that there were no bars explaining the intricate connection between the election and the said summer party!! But that's ok, there can always be a Remix!! 🙃😅
Give a shout out to my man @ElClutch, @bcaresearch's own emerging superstar, for this🔥summer hit! I'm a bit sad that there were no bars explaining the intricate connection between the election and the said summer party!! But that's ok, there can always be a Remix!! 🙃😅
Pretty dire moment for the Biden campaign. It's obviously not over, but...
There appears to be a consensus among macro investors that "tariffs are positive for a currency." Many cite 2018 as evidence. But as chart below suggests, collapse in Chinese credit growth (TSF) was more relevant than tariffs. I would not be a USD bull if Trump wins.
US industry bulls keep quoting the IRA and how it is a "game changer"... as if they think Europe can't do industrial policy! Come on people, you all realize that DIRIGISME is a French word, RIGHT???
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Constraints vs Preferences. In this case, it is the preferences of one man - Xi. @Geo_papic
The playbook for this has always been clear as day. Beijing is not unable to spur consumer demand. It's simply unwilling to do it. It doesn't jibe with how Xi wants to run his economy.
@Geo_papic @jam_croissant @TopTradersLive Волим кошарку. Само сам тражио реакцију
@TopTradersLive @Geo_papic @jam_croissant Never get tired of listening to Cem🥐
Check out our latest podcast episode where @Geo_papic, @jam_croissant and I dissect the ongoing tug-of-war between the West, Russia, China, and beyond. The stakes are high, and the game is on! 👇👇👇👇👇 top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen #MarkoPapic #Geopolitics #Investing
Moj prikaz knjige @Geo_papic Geopolitička Alfa za @Novimagazin
@jam_croissant @TopTradersLive @Geo_papic the second most famous Serb
@VolaTim @tell36279 @Geo_papic <Papic right now> 🍿
@JacobShap you and @Geo_papic are so awesome. Marko is spot on! 🔥🔥🔥
Thanks to @Geo_papic for making the time to rejoin the @CognitiveInvest #podcast to talk everything from Iran to Jokic. cognitive-investments.captivate.fm/episode/markos…
@CryptoPsych007 @Geo_papic @johnauthers No more juice. A lot of the hot money had to cover already. Let’s see if more shorts piled in these last few days.
@Geo_papic @johnauthers Agreed. Middle East doing a very public display of war but oil not $100 a barrel. 🤔
✍🏼 some 5am morning thoughts No, it’s not really geopolitics. Market wants repeat (perhaps to a lesser extent) what we saw from between Aug and Nov 2023: - Long term bond yields have been surging on the continued strength of the economy, stalling (services) disinflation and…
More up to date chart of what I sent to @johnauthers. I don't know much, but it is CLEAR stocks are not down because of geopolitics. What is intriguing is that oil is struggling to break out even in these unprecedented times. Are bonds or oil wrong?
@Geo_papic @johnauthers They told us bonds hedge your stocks too. Bonds use to sell off with geopolitics, when it threatened the sovereign. 200 years of data back that up.
@Geo_papic @johnauthers no side claimed responsibility, Iran didn't accuse any side and said 3 'drones' launched from Iranian territory and 'tried' to target Iranian Air Force base but failed. basically, no further escalation
@Geo_papic @johnauthers I read it that stocks are down because of bond yields are up. Bond prices have retrace up temporarily in the two recent episodes of bombing in the ME, but those episodes do not seem to dent the trend in place.
@Geo_papic @johnauthers Finally someone said it! Here’s what I wrote too. Attributing this to geopolitics is us just bullshitting ourselves to justify all the stupid things of the last few months 🥹
Been fading rate cut bets and shorting bonds for months BUT....this is the kind of thing that makes me want to start buying 2s and Z25 SOFR...
@sohaibab9 if you've got realvision, this session was monumental - he;'s back at 4pm edt x.com/Geo_papic/stat…
Live on @RealVision right now with @maggielake! If anyone wants to jump on as we discuss Iran-Israel tensions! Always fun to be on a call with friends from Real Vision.
@Geo_papic To be entirely fair. Taking into account iranian drones are quite slow and USA spends considerable resources watching for Iranian air ride to begin, even if 🇮🇷 wanted to be sneaky about it, the “sneaky score” would had been pretty low despite efforts. Boasting was better idea
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