Jakub Polec @jakubpolec
Building Profitable Algo Strategies | Quantitative Researcher & Dev | Financial Data Scientist | ML Investing | Sharing Code for Algorithmic Systems | PhD quantjourney.substack.com Joined February 2023-
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Jakub Polec retweeted
"I promise to not raise your taxes" and "I promise to not cut your benefits" are the two popular political promises that are inconsistent with the much more needed promise "I promise to cut the budget deficit to about 3 percent of GDP" that is required to prevent a big…
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30-year mortgage rates are most closely related to the 10-year Treasury yield than the short-term Fed Funds rate. And see mortgage drop
High BDI is inflationary (shipping costs push into CPI/PPI) - now almost 1965. Could support long ON breakevens, long commodities vs. short bonds.
Stanley Druckenmiller Agent: "High-conviction asymmetric opportunities".
investors would want to see NFP below 40k and the UR at 4.4% or more for a 50bps cut to be on the table.
Over-connected networks favor misinformation, ideas spread too easily.
Stanley Druckenmiller Agent: "High-conviction asymmetric opportunities".
Trade map: Hot: AHE ≥0.4% or PAYEMS ≥150k; revisions ≥0 → pay 2y, sell TY on impulse, rotate to cash-flow value, fade NQ strength with 5–10 DTE put spreads, exit rates if 2y moves −8–10 bps from entry; take profits on index puts when IV rank mean-reverts. Downside: PAYEMS…
Friday’s NFP: setup, signals, expectations, and how to trade it to profit! quantjourney.substack.com/p/fridays-nfp-…
5 Days Left to Sign Up! for the Second Edition of our Crypto Bot Training : 4 live sessions, 8 hours, lifetime recordings, full bot code, and post-course support. 👉 Reserve your seat now: buy.stripe.com/dRm4gz2qeaZoaZ… ✅ Build your own live trading bot ✅ Learn data acquisition,…
Limit AI, everyone can use it — to stay competitive you need more.
Buy protection when you can not when you have to.
Buy protection when you can not when you have to.
Obvious things aren’t so obvious at first.
Obvious things aren’t so obvious at first.
In a bull market, shorting the VIX can be easier than picking an index fund. $SVIX
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