Guy Berger @EconBerger
Director of Economic Research at the Burning Glass Institute. I tweet a lot about labor markets, macro, and (sorry) music! Tweets represent my own views. linkedin.com/in/guyberger San Francisco, CA Joined February 2016-
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My take on why hiring and quits have fallen over the past year despite net employment growth rising a little: it's supply! When supply expands, fewer hires come out of the previously employed, lowering turnover. macromostly.substack.com/p/jolts-recap-…
I often hear job openings described as "labor demand", but that's not right. They're a measure of excess demand. They can fall because of falling demand, but also because of rising supply.
I mentioned yesterday this is one of the most fascinating/surprising labor market developments of the past year. Hiring (& quits) are down, which would typically be associated with slowing employment growth. Instead, it accelerated a little. Probable explanation: labor supply!
I mentioned yesterday this is one of the most fascinating/surprising labor market developments of the past year. Hiring (& quits) are down, which would typically be associated with slowing employment growth. Instead, it accelerated a little. Probable explanation: labor supply!
2023-24's unusual "Great Stay" labor market continued in March: relatively few people starting jobs, relatively few people ending them (voluntarily or involuntarily).
2023-24's unusual "Great Stay" labor market continued in March: relatively few people starting jobs, relatively few people ending them (voluntarily or involuntarily).
The advantage of data dependent policymaking is that conditional on a set of publicly known information, we don’t get surprises:
The advantage of data dependent policymaking is that conditional on a set of publicly known information, we don’t get surprises:
The funny part of "tariffs => inflation" discourse is how low-order it is in most econ textbooks relative to other things people worry about with tariffs!
The funny part of "tariffs => inflation" discourse is how low-order it is in most econ textbooks relative to other things people worry about with tariffs!
The most interesting thing in Wednesday's JOLTS report, if it sticks: The combo of (1) declining hiring/quits + (2) unchanged employment growth. IMHO it's among the most surprising labor market developments of the past year, & probably reflects rapidly expanding labor supply.
One of the best reporters on the US workplace beat is @AkiIto7 at @BusinessInsider . And this month, I had the fortune of talking to her about the headwinds hitting America's most educated and highly-paid workers. businessinsider.com/hiring-slump-p…
Ok, I found a new bit:
The "increase in gig work" apparent in tax data seems to reflect a change in taxpayer reporting behavior, not an actual change in the amount of gig work happening in the economy. New NBER paper by @andy_garin @JacksonEmilieA & Dmitri Koustas. nber.org/papers/w32368
Strong agreement w/Ernie. Wage growth's marginal information content on inflation relative to actual inflation data is very low.
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Nothing about this is saying wage price spiral.
Hiring & quit rates fell in March & are running below the 2018-2019 labor market--openings fell too & while still higher than pre-pandemic are subject to an upward trend. This aligns w/ earnings reports--firms are citing low attrition/cautious hiring
This is absurd. It is not consistent with what a university is supposed to be.
Wristbands are being used to identify anti-Israel students at @UCLA so that they are allowed to enter Royce Quad, Royce Hall, and Powell Library. Some students are allowed in and out, others are kept out. This is ILLEGAL and UCLA is not just tolerating it but facilitating it.
@EconBerger I think this where using the NK model for inflation can be quite helpful. Tariffs increase the real marginal cost of production and thus directly impact the rate of inflation.
@Ingar30 Yeah, the stuff it is good at is "rotate x into state y".
Tomorrow feels like a weirdly uneventful Fed meeting. Unless Powell makes some sort of comment about rate hikes in the presser, which I can’t imagine, doesn’t feel like a very market-moving event.
I am begging —BEGGING—journalists who cover housing and the economy to dig into this research. In most U.S. metros, a large share of new “luxury” market rate housing is affordable to low-income families at 60-80% AMI.
INTERACTIVE MAP & RESEARCH: How much of your city's new housing is priced affordable to low-income families? Probably more than you think! Glad to be in @metroabundance: metroabundance.org/how-inclusiona…
working on something cool 👀
I understand there’s some sort of press release coming out 4 or so hours after JOLTS tomorrow? Please advise?
Anyone know why google search interest for "stagflation" is highly seasonal? There's a prominent 'May' effect
The disjunction between economic fears and reality is astonishing. Have we just stopped talking about reality altogether?
Someone pitches a version of this every month like clockwork, all these ideas have been tried and the reality is just that it cannibalizes more revenue from lost monthly subscribers than it earns from new daily subscribers and papers desperately need all the revenue they can find
hear me out what if newspapers had an online ~day pass~ option that cost the same as buying the print edition that day. instead of just subscribe or not
Life at home these days, summarized in a text message: “I just made 4 pounds of salmon (two ways, one for you), 2 pounds of green beans, & hard boiled eggs so hopefully that should last us through dinner.” See you back on air next Tuesday 🥴
@EconBerger @andy_garin @JacksonEmilieA i have been telling people about this for almost 10 years!!!! the primary function of the “gig” intermediaries is simply to act as a tax-snitch. thats part of the story with rising cost of low-wage labor, what used to be cash in your pocket is now a 1099. the SECA alone is 15%!!!
When my husband and I were living in San Francisco and had no money we got rejected by a sublet bc they wanted single women only so my husband convinced me to apply again but pretend to be a different person with a British accent and it worked
Countries with floating exchange rates do not have currency crisis. There is no currency crisis in Japan. Trend growth is extremely low( contrary to Turkey) so obviously we should have REAL depreciation of the yen. Nothing special about that. marketmonetarist.com/2024/04/29/yen…
The #MMT crowd is trying to "normalize" the huge drop in the Yen. In real effective terms, Yen is down more than Turkish Lira, Egyptian Pound or Argentinian Peso since 2019. Japan is a debt crisis that's morphed into a currency crisis. There's nothing normal about any of that...
"Their currency is going to continue to weaken, which is *really bad* for the people who live there..." 🤔 This discussion is borderline insane.
The yen hitting a 34-year low against the U.S. dollar... "The BoJ's credibility is shot," says @timseymour. @GuyAdami and @RiskReversal outline the biggest risks posed by Japan's currency weakness.
The best inflation measure right now is inflation. Obviously, growth in wages, jobs, consumption, and GDP all have relationships with inflation, but to divine them, one must have a view on the underlying trends in each, and those are incredibly uncertain right now.
What is "mandate consistent" wage growth? Depends on productivity. The labor share of GDP captures this--wage growth + productivity are high & the labor share is close to historical lows putting focus back on inflation--higher productivity should be compatible w/ ongoing cooling
@EconBerger Looks like union wages are also playing catchup, and that's helping boost private wage growth.
Japan should just let its currency devalue. What is the point of propping it up?
Good @Bloomberg story on the rapid fall in the Yen and Japan’s efforts to stop the slide. First line of defense when your currency is falling is to let interest rates rise. Japan can’t do that as this would cause a fiscal crisis. Japan is trapped… bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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