Anna Wong @AnnaEconomist
Chief US Economist, Bloomberg LP @economics. Former Fed/CEA/US Treasury, @uchi_economics. All opinions are my own. Joined May 2022-
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My view on what Fed probably will do (but definitely needs to do) now on Bloomberg website. bloomberg.com/news/features/…
A weedy, potential explanation about the hotter than expect ed core PCE inflation implied by the gdp print today: pce deflator weights uses a Fisher Ideal index formula, vs cpi uses Laspeyres weighting. Why does that matter? So the PCE inflation uses moving weights, so if the…
The implied recession probability based on the NLP sentiment for Beige Book (from Cleveland Fed) also spiked just around the BED data shows the negative private payrolls. But now the Beige book probability is back down. Thanks, Powell or Fed's dual mandate?
This explains the past. Powell looked like a maestro from his pivot. Looking forward—we think the pivot has staunched some of these dynamics. It probably will play out longer. We still think unemployment will go to 4.5% end of this year. And no, the nfp is “strong” last year not…
This explains the past. Powell looked like a maestro from his pivot. Looking forward—we think the pivot has staunched some of these dynamics. It probably will play out longer. We still think unemployment will go to 4.5% end of this year. And no, the nfp is “strong” last year not…
Beige book was on to something last October. Powell’s pivot last December was not for naught.
This is my new favorite bird at the moment, other than my constant, the osprey. (In the birds’s world, male usually are the ones who have the flashier colors and need to be “pretty” to attract females. Why it is the reverse in the human world is …against the natural order of…
This is my new favorite bird at the moment, other than my constant, the osprey. (In the birds’s world, male usually are the ones who have the flashier colors and need to be “pretty” to attract females. Why it is the reverse in the human world is …against the natural order of…
So close, yet so far.
There are potential rhymes of 70s inflation today: favorable base effect of inflation decline after two years about to exhaust, Fed pivot just when that happens, just when a second oil shock may strike, officials possibly overestimating productivity, Fed keen on achieving a soft…
Great thread. Melody has been ahead this. My own home insurance premium went up by 30% and 50% this year.
Great thread. Melody has been ahead this. My own home insurance premium went up by 30% and 50% this year.
US credit-card delinquency rates were the highest on record in the fourth quarter, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia report. bloomberg.com/news/articles/… via @economics
Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart
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@RichardHanania They find a way to be on the right side of history every time. It’s easy when you have clearly stated principles that you enforce consistently. Imagine that. Proud to be an alum.
the University of Chicago has yet to do anything to embarrass me 🤞
the University of Chicago has yet to do anything to embarrass me 🤞
So who else went to a university that they didn’t have to apologize for this week?
President of the University of Chicago with the best statement yet on the protests: “I believe the protesters should also consider that an encampment, with all the etymological connections of the word to military origins, is a way of using force of a kind rather than reason to…
Great stuff on Treasury market dynamics from @BBGIntelligence experts @IraFJersey and @whoffman732! Strongly encourage you to check out the whole thing if you are on the terminal. A few charts caught my eye. Domestic and foreign private investors are buying Treasury bonds with…
The @BBGIntelligence Treasury refunding primer is out. We don't expect changes to coupons this quarter, so focus will be on expected cash balance (we think $850bn) and final details on Treasury buybacks. full report from @whoffman732 & I @TheTerminal : lnkd.in/eNGA_MDT
Auto insurance premiums are *casually* up 22% year-over-year and the world remains silent. Three core reasons for this rise: 1) Elevated new car prices: On average, new car prices are still up over 15% vs March 2021. Higher new car prices = Higher cost to replace your totaled…
Something’s going on with the yen. USD/JPY just swung a full 3 yen down reversing the sharp move on Friday. Speculation in the market is Japan did intervene when the exchange rate hit 160. Wild Monday
IME at FRBNY seniority was due tenure, so a small group of lifers held all the power. And because they could never be fired they basically owned the agency. Almost all were Dems, so I understand if a Repubican pres would be uncomfortable Btw all federal agencies are similar
Trump is 100% correct, the President or Congress should be directly setting interest rate policy. Elected leaders should run our country. FDR set interest rate policy and it was fantastically successful.
This is so crazy
Biden Treasury Department says we need higher taxes on capital gains because it would hurt white people more and take away their wealth. Whites own too many stocks and businesses, so they need to pay.
Omair Sharif of Inflation Insights on where the GDP data from today leaves the price pressure landscape.
‘Tis a good day when the YouTube Silver Creator Award arrives in the mail Thanks to all the subscribers of my channel, all 150k of you now, for your constant support
Putting the recession debate to BED, post-revisions, of course. @BLS_gov
Well, the Business Dynamics revision is up and turns out that Birth/Death models weren't all that inaccurate (/s). As a reminder, they projected 264K jobs created NSA (roughly 100K jobs per month seasonally adjusted). The actual data was a LOSS of 198K jobs. So the net 500K jobs…
Hothead Ruby-crowned Kinglet in Prospect Park (Brooklyn) this morning #rubycrownedkinglet #birdcpp #springmigration #birdphotography #nikonphotography
Pretty much sums up our 28 years of marriage. 😂😅 Met in college. Have grown up together. Wouldn’t trade him for anything. My best laugh, my safest hug.
The comments on this are great 🙂 If y'all wouldn't mind dropping a comment/quote tweet of where you met your spouse & a pic - people seem interested 🤷🏻♂️ We met on hinge 🙏
lol 'In 1992, the saying was "It's the economy, stupid." Today, it's "You're stupid. The economy is perfect." '
The Biden White House says "Bidenomics" is working. It's not. But if you disagree, Will Stancil-types will slide into your DMs with some graphs and call you an idiot. In 1992, the saying was "It's the economy, stupid." Today, it's "You're stupid. The economy is perfect." cc:…
The Biden White House says "Bidenomics" is working. It's not. But if you disagree, Will Stancil-types will slide into your DMs with some graphs and call you an idiot. In 1992, the saying was "It's the economy, stupid." Today, it's "You're stupid. The economy is perfect." cc:…
Looks like MacroQuant may have nailed it again.