Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 @C_Barraud
CEO and Sales Manager at Market Securities Monaco SAM | Chief Economist | PhD | Bloomberg 🇺🇸 🇪🇺 🇨🇳 "Top Forecaster" for several years | RT ≠ endorsement christophe-barraud.com/blog/ Monaco Joined March 2012-
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🇺🇸 *US APRIL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE 97; EST. 104.0 - BBG
🇺🇸 *US APRIL MNI CHICAGO REPORT BUSINESS INDEX AT 37.9; EST 45.0 - BBG
🇪🇺 *BANK OF FRANCE CHIEF VILLEROY COMMENTS ON LINKEDIN - BBG *VILLEROY: ENCOURAGING NEWS FROM ECONOMY THIS MORNING *VILLEROY: INFLATION DATA RAISES CONFIDENCE OF REACHING TARGET *VILLEROY: ECB CAN START TO CUT RATES EARLY JUNE *VILLEROY: ECB RATE REDUCTIONS WILL THEN BE…
⚠ Wednesday Brief ⚠ 🇺🇸 U.S. Treasury to Borrow $243 Billion in Q2 🇨🇳 #China Factory Activity Holds Up 🇪🇺 #Eurozone GDP and Core CPI Beat Expectations ... christophe-barraud.com/morning-brief-…
🇩🇪 *#GERMANY PRELIM 1Q GDP RISES 0.2% Q/Q; EST. +0.1% - BBG
🇫🇷 #FRANCE APRIL EU-HARMONIZED CPI RISES 0.6% M/M; EST. +0.5% - BBG *FRANCE APRIL EU-HARMONIZED CPI RISES 2.4% Y/Y; EST. +2.2%
🇫🇷 #FRANCE GDP GREW 0.2% IN 1Q Q/Q; EST. +0.1% - BBG *FRANCE GDP GREW 1.1% IN 1Q Y/Y; EST. +0.8%
🇨🇳 Cash dividend payouts by listed companies in #China’s A-share market for the fiscal year of 2023 are set to hit a record high, Shanghai Securities News reported. *Link (Chinese): paper.cnstock.com/html/2024-04/3…
🇨🇳🇺🇸 #China’s US #Treasury Holdings Becoming ‘Hostages,’ Academic Warns – Bloomberg bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
🇨🇳 #China expects 270 million daily trips during upcoming Labor Day holiday – Xinhua english.news.cn/20240429/5a677…
🇨🇳 #China Factory Activity Holds Up, Signaling Recovery Has Legs – Bloomberg bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
🇳🇱 #NETHERLANDS PRELIM APRIL HARMONIZED CPI RISES 2.6% Y/Y (V 3.1% PRIOR) *NETHERLANDS PRELIM APRIL HARMONIZED CPI RISES 1.1% M/M
🇩🇪 #GERMANY PRELIM APRIL CONSUMER PRICES RISE 0.5% M/M; EST. +0.6% - BBG *GERMANY PRELIM APRIL HARMONIZED CPI RISES 0.6% M/M; EST. +0.6% *GERMANY PRELIM APRIL CONSUMER PRICES RISE 2.2% Y/Y; EST. +2.3% *GERMANY PRELIM APRIL HARMONIZED CPI RISES 2.4% Y/Y; EST. +2.3%
⚠ Monday Brief ⚠ 🇯🇵 #Yen Shorts Rise to Fresh Record 🇨🇳 #Yuan Devaluation Debate Surfaces 🇪🇸 Spanish Core Inflation Slowed in April ... christophe-barraud.com/morning-briefy…
🇪🇸 *SANCHEZ MOVES TO 11 A.M. ANNOUNCEMENT ON WHETHER HE QUITS - BBG
⚠ #WeekAhead Preview: Week 18 (2024) ⚠ 🇺🇸 #Fed Meeting 🇯🇵 #BOJ Minutes 🇺🇸 U.S. Treasury Quarterly Refunding 🌎 #OECD Economic Outlook 🇺🇸 U.S. Employment Report 🇨🇳 Chinese PMIs 🌎 Central Banks’ Speeches ... christophe-barraud.com/week-ahead-pre…
🇨🇳 #China | #Yuan Devaluation Debate Surfaces as Traders Weigh Next FX Shock – Bloomberg bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
🇯🇵 #Japan | #Yen Shorts Rise to Fresh Record Before #BOJ Meeting - Bloomberg bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
🇪🇸 *#SPAIN PRELIM APRIL HARMONIZED CPI RISES 0.6% M/M; EST. +0.7% - BBG *SPAIN PRELIM APRIL HARMONIZED CPI RISES 3.4% Y/Y; EST. +3.4% *SPAIN PRELIM APRIL CORE CPI RISES 2.9% Y/Y; EST. +3.2%
🇺🇸 US Debt-Sale Plan Seen Benefiting From Fed That ‘Stops Hurting’ – Bloomberg bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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#China's Politburo meeting highlights: 🔸To decide on economic works in July meeting. 🔸Make good use of ultra-long bonds ASAP. 🔸To ensure high-risk cities can reduce debt burden. 🔸To study absorbing housing stockpiles. 🔸Use interest rate & RRR tools to support the economy.
⚠ #WeekAhead Preview: Week 18 (2024) ⚠ 🇺🇸 #Fed Meeting 🇯🇵 #BOJ Minutes 🇺🇸 U.S. Treasury Quarterly Refunding 🌎 #OECD Economic Outlook 🇺🇸 U.S. Employment Report 🇨🇳 Chinese PMIs 🌎 Central Banks’ Speeches ... christophe-barraud.com/week-ahead-pre…
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⚠ Top 10 Macro/Financial Charts of the Week – w17 (2024) ⚠ *HT @lisaabramowicz1, @Marlin_Capital, @NickTimiraos, @zerohedge, @KobeissiLetter, @jessefelder #Copper #SPX #Inflation #Fed #Debt #Rates #China #Gold christophe-barraud.com/top-10-macro-f…
JUST IN: President Biden proposes increasing capital gains tax rates to 44.6%, the highest since 1922. Currently, the highest long-term capital gains tax rate is 20%. He has also proposed a 25% tax on unrealized capital gains for wealthy individuals. Should this be approved?
This is concerning: The cost to service US Federal debt is now takes up a record ~12% of US government spending. This is up sharply from just ~7% in 2020 and ~9% in 2022. In 2023, the US posted its 3rd largest deficit on record, spending $1.7 TRILLION more than it brought in.…
🇨🇳 #China 2024 Growth Outlook Raised to 4.8%, Deflation Risk Lingers - Bloomberg bloomberg.com/news/articles/… x.com/c_barraud/stat…
🌎 🇨🇳 #China | Monthly and HF data confirm the consensus for 2024 GDP looks pessimistic (4.6%e for now). ➡ Economists are likely to revise upward their projections soon. ➡ It will probably be the same for World GDP (2.8%e for now). x.com/c_barraud/stat…
I've been worried for a while that the weakening NFIB small business survey points to much slower job gains from Q2 onwards. Now, the S&P PMI employment index tells the same story; it's more of a coincident indicator, while the NFIB leads by about 4 months. Look out below.
🌎 Mon interview à L'Expertinvest ⬇ L’éclairage économique de Christophe Barraud : Entre stabilisation et défis, comment se portent les perspectives de croissance mondiale pour 2024 ? *Teaser: La croissance mondiale devrait se maintenir à 3.1% et donc surprendre les attentes.…
The rapidly changing rental affordability narrative doesn't get talked about enough. Wage growth has outpaced new lease rent growth for 16 straight months. That trend will almost certainly continue through 2024-- which would erase the entire rent>wage bump of 2021-22. That's a…
At the end of 1Q24, Bloomberg ranked me as "Top Forecaster" for: 🥇 🇺🇸 Economy *I got the 2nd place for 🥈 🇨🇳 Economy
We must be prepared for what's coming -- Power demand - coming out of major technology companies has increased 8x in the last 10 years - JPM A must-read --- amazon.com/Listen-When-Ma…
⚠ #WeekAhead Preview: Week 17 (2024) ⚠ 🇯🇵 #BOJ Meeting 🇺🇸 U.S. GDP 🇪🇺 #ECB Speakers 🌎 Global PMIs 🇵🇭 🇺🇸 #Philippines and U.S. Drills ... christophe-barraud.com/week-ahead-pre…
⚠ Top 10 Macro/Financial Charts of the Week – w16 (2024) ⚠ *HT @jessefelder, @boes_, @FrancoisTrahan, @fwred #SPX #Reserves #Inflation #Rents #Italy #China christophe-barraud.com/top-10-macro-f…
APOLLO: “.. The 3-month annualized change in supercore inflation is now over 8% and accelerating .. the Fed is not done fighting inflation and rates will stay higher for longer. .. We are sticking to our view that the Fed will not cut rates in 2024.” [Slok] #CPI
Uh-oh (5) Now, that is ugly. Bigly ugly!!!! US CPI super core +8.2% over the past three months annualized.
Uh-oh (4) For the sixth month in a row, the short-term dynamic of the "super core PCE" is superior to the yoy dynamic. An indisputable sign that inflation is reaccelerating.