David Marlin @Marlin_Capital
Equity Trader | CEO of Marlin Capital | Not Investment Advice. MarlinCapital.substack.com New Jersey, USA Joined June 2010-
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Foreign buying of Chinese stocks just topped a new record high. $KWEB $FXI $BABA $PDD
Over the past month, we have seen a sharp decrease in positioning across Hedge Funds, Retail, Asset Managers, CTAs, and ETF Flows. The 4wk decrease in positioning reached the most extreme level we have seen since last October. $SPX $QQQ $NVDA $TSLA $AAPL
Put/Call Ratio has risen to multi-year highs amid the recent market sell off. $SPY $QQQ $IWM $AAPL $NVDA
Asset Managers are currently the most bullish they have been in over 2 years (since Jan '22), according to BofA’s April Survey. $SPY $QQQ $IWM $NVDA $MSFT
76% of Fund Managers surveyed by BofA expect 2+ rate cuts this year. Only 8% are forecasting no cuts at all for 2024. $SPY $QQQ $IWM
This week has seen the largest outflow from US Large Cap Funds in over 15 months. $SPY $QQQ $SMH
Consensus estimates are projecting +3% YoY EPS Growth for the $SPX in Q1. Last quarter, Wall Street was also modeling +3% EPS Growth and the realized number came in at +8%. $SPY $QQQ $AAPL $NVDA $AMZN
We are currently in the corporate buyback blackout period for most of the $SPX. Since 2000, US corporations have bought back $5.5T of stock. This has amounted to more demand than any other market participant, and it’s not even close. 👇👇
April is historically a strong month for the $SPX. A mid-month dip during tax day/week has also been the norm since 1985.
Asset managers’ speculative positions in the $SPX (options, futures, etc.) have risen to a record high.
Tech is dominating equity flows in 2024. 👇 9 of the other 10 sectors have net outflows YTD. $QQQ $SMH $NVDA $MSFT
The 10 largest TMT stocks currently trade at a 28x Fwd P/E multiple. Still well below heights reached during previous bubbles - 52x at the Dot Com peak and 43x at the Covid Bubble peak. $MSFT $NVDA $AAPL $META
$SMH, the top Semiconductor ETF, just saw its biggest daily inflow EVER yesterday. $NVDA $AMD $AVGO $SMCI
With Tech continuing to lead the $SPX, there is a narrative that the sector has become too big/dominant. But history reminds us that it is not unprecedented to see 1 sector dominate this much. Just like Tech today, Energy ruled in the 1950s. Specifically, Tech’s size today…
We have just witnessed the largest weekly outflow from Tech Funds on record. $QQQ $NVDA $AAPL $MSFT
Inflows to Crypto Funds are on pace to hit a jaw-dropping $45B in 2024, leaving the previous record ($5B in ‘21) in the dust. #Bitcoin $BTC $ETH $COIN $GBTC
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@Marlin_Capital It takes a braver investor than me to send money to China and expect it back one day
@Marlin_Capital I want part of this buying
People are pouncing on the recent breakout in the Hang Seng Index
Foreign buying of Chinese stocks just topped a new record high. $KWEB $FXI $BABA $PDD
"Over the past month, we have seen a sharp decrease in positioning across Hedge Funds, Retail, Asset Managers, CTAs, and ETF Flows. The 4wk decrease in positioning reached the most extreme level we have seen since last October." JPMorgan via @Marlin_Capital
For those wondering, the answer is no... we have not yet covered our overweight $DIA short position initiated on 4/5 and added to on 4/9. I felt the rally we experienced during the past few days was nothing more than a technical bounce from a deeply oversold condition. Today,…
Long term I remain bullish on the market. Our long term trend model is holding on to the Jan. 13, 2023 buy signal. In the short term, I'm positioned for a pullback. Two days ago we shorted the $DIA with a stop up at the ATH. That's only a little more than 2% risk on one of the…
👀
Over the past month, we have seen a sharp decrease in positioning across Hedge Funds, Retail, Asset Managers, CTAs, and ETF Flows. The 4wk decrease in positioning reached the most extreme level we have seen since last October. $SPX $QQQ $NVDA $TSLA $AAPL
THE DOUBLE BANG 🤯 @Divincenzo @MSGNetworks @KnicksMSGN
Am I really the only idiot who didn’t take a PPP loan? I feel so stupid.
CTAs have sold off an estimated $20B in equities since Monday, but the selling flows from Vol control funds and Risk parity strategies have been much less aggressive. That leaves a lot of potential deleveraging risk on the table if volatility increases from here. $SPX $VIX
This is the exact reason or one of them, but I do expect the market to throw in a rally sometime soon $SPY $SPX $QQQ Solid posting David
Put/Call Ratio has risen to multi-year highs amid the recent market sell off. $SPY $QQQ $IWM $AAPL $NVDA
@Marlin_Capital @MarlinCapitalPR Shit, sorry buddy. That is why Twitter still sucks, it was suggested to me when I was making the posting rather than actually providing me your handle.
@ukarlewitz x.com/marlin_capital…
Put/Call Ratio has risen to multi-year highs amid the recent market sell off. $SPY $QQQ $IWM $AAPL $NVDA
Dont let people give you fomo when index under 10 day (or ever)......if it were to ever take out 10/20 day would be a process that would present plenty of opps. Thats how im approaching. More important not to lose money. One setup at a time. No one knows what market going to do.
Historically speaking, when the Put/Call ratio has reached levels this high, we have had very sharp moves higher over broader markets
Put/Call Ratio has risen to multi-year highs amid the recent market sell off. $SPY $QQQ $IWM $AAPL $NVDA
@Marlin_Capital @1TraderZ I gotta buy me some more 🍎!
Time to double down... "Cash levels have come down sharply according to BofA. Below 4% this "rule" triggers a sell signal for equities. We are at 4.2%..."
What is your plan if US yields crash up and not equities? If you don't have one, it is time to get one.
Trends for United States
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