Puru Saxena @saxena_puru
Retired money manager/founder of money management firms in Hong Kong. My posts are views; not investment advice. Do your own due diligence. Joined August 2018-
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Weekly "Trend Update" - - Trend for $NDX and $SPX is currently DOWN - Trend for Russell 2000 is currently DOWN When $IWM closes above green line (below chart) + the trend flips to UP, portfolio hedges will come off.
Great to receive such positive feedback! I don't offer personalised investment advice but glad that so many of you find my posts useful 🙏😃
Great to receive such positive feedback! I don't offer personalised investment advice but glad that so many of you find my posts useful 🙏😃
Sticky inflation and high interest-rates are keeping a lid on the growth stocks at the forefront of major secular trends... Their market caps aren't soaring right now but their underlying businesses are growing at a rapid pace. These stocks are like coiled springs and will shoot…
Azure still growing at 31%YoY, GCP growing at 28%YoY The cloud market is enormous! The high quality smaller/younger, software businesses should continue to compound for a long time.
Tesla has unveiled its robotaxi ride hailing app FSD + Optimus (RaaS) will be massive cash cows! Disclosure - Long $TSLA
$CELH - After booking gains in early March, have started buying after this 30% pullback in "Stage 2"... Stock is trying to find support around its Sept '23 high but it may decline to its 40-week moving average. The r/r at this level seems favourable. Disclosure - Long $CELH
Following this multi-week pullback, the strongest growth stocks are jumping out of the gates... The intermediate-term trend for stocks such as Duolingo and Datadog has now flipped to UP (2 week ema > 4week ema) and this is a positive development. Disclosure - Long $DDOG $DUOL
$MNDY - "Stage 2" pullback towards 40-week ma Many rate-sensitive, growth stocks have undergone a multi-week pullback towards the 40-week moving average; and they are now trying to find some support. Some additional weakness is certainly possible but a lot of froth has already…
Really nice to receive such positive messages on a regular basis... Glad that people find my posts useful. It is your engagement and feedback that make running this account a fulfilling endeavour 😀🙏
Really nice to receive such positive messages on a regular basis... Glad that people find my posts useful. It is your engagement and feedback that make running this account a fulfilling endeavour 😀🙏
YoY growth rates* of my portfolio holdings (Q2'20-now)- Over the long-run, business growth ---> stock's return *Top rows = revenue growth, bottom rows = EPS growth $ADYEY $CRWD $DDOG $DLO $DUOL $GLBE $GTLB $MBLY $MELI $MMYT $MNDY $NET $NU $NVDA $ONON $SNOW $TSLA $ZS
"Stage Analysis" was created by the great Stan Weinstein who recommended the use of the 30 week ma as his trend filter. Stan buys stocks on Stage2 breakouts, but I build positions in Stage 1 bases (when prices are lower). Stage analysis is trend following and it works.
Stage analysis: How to manage stocks 40wk ma (red area) sloping upwards = Stage2 40wk ma (red area) sloping downwards = Stage 4 Stage 1 ---> when stocks build bases Stock stops going down, builds a base 40wk ma stops declining/flattens out Time to watch stock and gradually…
On portfolio "diversification" and what drives stocks - If all stocks in your portfolio decline on the same day, that does *not* mean your portfolio is *not* diversified. Similarly, if all the companies in your portfolio are growing rapidly yet they operate in different…
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@saxena_puru Thanks Puru. Will be interesting to see the short term moves. Big tech seems to be priced to perfection. I’ll be curious to see AMD’s earnings … and later on NVDA’s
@saxena_puru Yes! Very grateful for your content! Cheers Mate!
@saxena_puru You advise and helpfulness is most definately appreciated!
@saxena_puru Ofcourse we do. There are people selling by stuff and then their motivation is money. Yours is service
@saxena_puru Senor Saxena, "Blessings" come all formats & forms. Thank You for being the blessing that you are💯
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No escape velocity signal for equity re-rating from an excess liquidity viewpoint. Stay put in 2Q24.
@saxena_puru Thats exactly my reading of current situation. We need to see inflation to point downward again. Till then will be a difficult market, although the AI and robotics theme will stay strong.
@saxena_puru @p_ferragu Record fiscal deficit is the root cause of inflationary pressure and elevated rates for long-term. The dream of cutting rates by the fed in 2024 is slipping away
Azure at a ~$76B run rate growing 31% constant currency Quarterly YoY growth trends below. Also shown estimated growth ex AI services for last couple quarters (maybe they'll disclose Azure AI on the call, but it wasn't in press release) $MSFT
@jageeradakoo @saxena_puru One thing leads to the other. When interest rates cuts begin the growth rates of small and medium caps will almost certainly improve...
This is so true 🔮
Sticky inflation and high interest-rates are keeping a lid on the growth stocks at the forefront of major secular trends... Their market caps aren't soaring right now but their underlying businesses are growing at a rapid pace. These stocks are like coiled springs and will shoot…
@saxena_puru @p_ferragu High rates hurting people budgets. People have to pay high rates for their houses, goods, whatever... in Italy was almost 8% to lease a Tesla, so you pay almost 13k EUR in interests, this is another small car...
$TSLA has met horrible demand in recent months. But keep in mind demand in auto is intrinsically extremely volatile. Don’t forget: 1) Demand is not structurally gone; it is likely to snap back at some point. 2) It will still structurally increase with lower prices.
$PLTR #PLTR A perfect bounce at the diagonal trend zone today.
$TSLA #TSLA This June 2019 pivot VWAP has been an important bounce spot multiple times over the last 5 years.