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The Spread Thread @SpreadThread1

Former head of credit strategy | Investor/Trader | Add your email at https://t.co/XTLs3jKi6C to receive our research to your inbox for no charge TheSpreadSite.com Joined March 2022
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SpreadThread1 Profile Picture

The Spread Thread @SpreadThread1

7 hours ago

4 prints, not 1. +19, -13,+79, +22 (may-aug). My simplistic view - when the economy is averaging 150k like early this year, there is cushion to absorb headwinds. When it’s averaging 25k that cushion is gone. Things aren’t falling off a cliff. But risks are higher at stall speed.

wabuffo Profile Picture

Bill @wabuffo

9 hours ago

4 prints, not 1. +19, -13,+79, +22 (may-aug). My simplistic view - when the economy is averaging 150k like early this year, there is cushion to absorb headwinds. When it’s averaging 25k that cushion is gone. Things aren’t falling off a cliff. But risks are higher at stall speed.

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The Spread Thread @SpreadThread1

3 months ago

Worth a quick read

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Gold Mansacks @Gold_Mansack

3 months ago

Worth a quick read

SpreadThread1 Profile Picture

The Spread Thread @SpreadThread1

4 months ago

Which of the following will have the highest total return over the next 12 months:

SpreadThread1 Profile Picture

The Spread Thread @SpreadThread1

4 months ago

I believe GS recently put out a 1% annual real return for the SPX over the next 10yrs given starting valuations. Just one forecast, and they may be too pessimistic. But long-term TIPS now pay 2.75% real. For retirees who live off the income on their assets, seems like a gift.

MikeZaccardi Profile Picture

Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 @MikeZaccardi

4 months ago

I believe GS recently put out a 1% annual real return for the SPX over the next 10yrs given starting valuations. Just one forecast, and they may be too pessimistic. But long-term TIPS now pay 2.75% real. For retirees who live off the income on their assets, seems like a gift.

SpreadThread1 Profile Picture

The Spread Thread @SpreadThread1

4 months ago

But how much really changed? Before last week consensus was probably 10% country tariffs/ 25% key sectors/ ~50% China. And we now have 10/25/30. Yes uncertainty is down. But I think this is mainly a case of markets tank -> economists bearish. Markets rip -> economists bullish.

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Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited

4 months ago

But how much really changed? Before last week consensus was probably 10% country tariffs/ 25% key sectors/ ~50% China. And we now have 10/25/30. Yes uncertainty is down. But I think this is mainly a case of markets tank -> economists bearish. Markets rip -> economists bullish.

SpreadThread1 Profile Picture

The Spread Thread @SpreadThread1

4 months ago

Here is my framework. Tell me what I’m missing. The details of the framework don’t matter. If the tariffs are paused that’s bullish. If the tariffs are cut to 54% or higher that’s bearish. If the tariffs are cut to 34% it’s bullish for a few days then a fade.

CGasparino Profile Picture

Charles Gasparino @CGasparino

4 months ago

Here is my framework. Tell me what I’m missing. The details of the framework don’t matter. If the tariffs are paused that’s bullish. If the tariffs are cut to 54% or higher that’s bearish. If the tariffs are cut to 34% it’s bullish for a few days then a fade.

SpreadThread1 Profile Picture

The Spread Thread @SpreadThread1

4 months ago

A reminder- bankruptcies/defaults lag in a cycle. First spreads widen, then the economy weakens, then spreads blowout and co’s lose access to capital, then they default. As Bill’s chart shows, bankruptcies spiked in 2009/10 near the end of the recession, after spreads had peaked.

wabuffo Profile Picture

Bill @wabuffo

4 months ago

A reminder- bankruptcies/defaults lag in a cycle. First spreads widen, then the economy weakens, then spreads blowout and co’s lose access to capital, then they default. As Bill’s chart shows, bankruptcies spiked in 2009/10 near the end of the recession, after spreads had peaked.

SpreadThread1 Profile Picture

The Spread Thread @SpreadThread1

4 months ago

Keeps amazing me how so many argue trump caved. Great example of higher prices driving a bullish narrative. Yes trump softened his rhetoric. But he caved on very little. The effective tariff rate has barely budged since the 90 day pause, and “deals” are making that clear.

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Greg Ip @greg_ip

4 months ago

Keeps amazing me how so many argue trump caved. Great example of higher prices driving a bullish narrative. Yes trump softened his rhetoric. But he caved on very little. The effective tariff rate has barely budged since the 90 day pause, and “deals” are making that clear.

SpreadThread1 Profile Picture

The Spread Thread @SpreadThread1

4 months ago

Nearing the end of the “headline” phase and moving on to the “impact” phase. Think about what 10%/25%/50% should have on growth/inflation and especially earnings over the next 12m vs what’s currently priced in.

SpreadThread1 Profile Picture

The Spread Thread @SpreadThread1

4 months ago

Nearing the end of the “headline” phase and moving on to the “impact” phase. Think about what 10%/25%/50% should have on growth/inflation and especially earnings over the next 12m vs what’s currently priced in.

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