The Spread Thread @SpreadThread1
Former head of credit strategy | Investor/Trader | Add your email at https://t.co/XTLs3jKi6C to receive our research to your inbox for no charge TheSpreadSite.com Joined March 2022-
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Maybe it’s not that inconsistent. Bond yields falling b/c growth is weak, pricing in cuts. Stocks rallying b/c investors believe the cuts will work (I.e., looking through the soft patch). When/if investors no longer believe the cuts will work (or will cause harm) stocks go down
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The Spread Thread retweeted
@rev_cap Not the tightest ever. But yes, tight. Either way. Credit isn’t the forward looking indicator people think. Spreads were at all-time tights in mid-2007. Also, note, unlike stocks, credit has not gotten back to the tights hit early this year. A bit of a divergence Left chart MS
4 prints, not 1. +19, -13,+79, +22 (may-aug). My simplistic view - when the economy is averaging 150k like early this year, there is cushion to absorb headwinds. When it’s averaging 25k that cushion is gone. Things aren’t falling off a cliff. But risks are higher at stall speed.
4 prints, not 1. +19, -13,+79, +22 (may-aug). My simplistic view - when the economy is averaging 150k like early this year, there is cushion to absorb headwinds. When it’s averaging 25k that cushion is gone. Things aren’t falling off a cliff. But risks are higher at stall speed.
Worth a quick read
Which of the following will have the highest total return over the next 12 months:
I believe GS recently put out a 1% annual real return for the SPX over the next 10yrs given starting valuations. Just one forecast, and they may be too pessimistic. But long-term TIPS now pay 2.75% real. For retirees who live off the income on their assets, seems like a gift.
I believe GS recently put out a 1% annual real return for the SPX over the next 10yrs given starting valuations. Just one forecast, and they may be too pessimistic. But long-term TIPS now pay 2.75% real. For retirees who live off the income on their assets, seems like a gift.
But how much really changed? Before last week consensus was probably 10% country tariffs/ 25% key sectors/ ~50% China. And we now have 10/25/30. Yes uncertainty is down. But I think this is mainly a case of markets tank -> economists bearish. Markets rip -> economists bullish.
But how much really changed? Before last week consensus was probably 10% country tariffs/ 25% key sectors/ ~50% China. And we now have 10/25/30. Yes uncertainty is down. But I think this is mainly a case of markets tank -> economists bearish. Markets rip -> economists bullish.
Here is my framework. Tell me what I’m missing. The details of the framework don’t matter. If the tariffs are paused that’s bullish. If the tariffs are cut to 54% or higher that’s bearish. If the tariffs are cut to 34% it’s bullish for a few days then a fade.
Here is my framework. Tell me what I’m missing. The details of the framework don’t matter. If the tariffs are paused that’s bullish. If the tariffs are cut to 54% or higher that’s bearish. If the tariffs are cut to 34% it’s bullish for a few days then a fade.
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