Ian Harnett @IanRHarnett
Veteran macro strategist - Co-founder Absolute Strategy Research - All views are my own and not those of ASR. RT does not mean endorsement Joined January 2022-
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An excellent article from @Simon_Nixon on some of the causes of and potential solutions to the Eurozone growth malaise. And it has more to do with Banks than AI... For full transparency, @asr_london is delighted to have @Simon_Nixon as a consultant ahead of the UK election.
An excellent article from @Simon_Nixon on some of the causes of and potential solutions to the Eurozone growth malaise. And it has more to do with Banks than AI... For full transparency, @asr_london is delighted to have @Simon_Nixon as a consultant ahead of the UK election.
The 'big short' in the Hedge Fund Basis Trade is the counterpart to Asset Managers increasing their net-long exposures to Treasuries, as yields have risen
As US yields have risen back toward 5%, the US Hedge Fund 'big short' in the Treasury Basis Trade' has exploded back into life. Six months ago, the scale of this trade attracted a great deal of @federalreserve, @bankofengland and @imf concern...it is likely to do so once again
Many thanks to @Callum_Thomas for including this @asr_london chart of US yields in his ever excellent weekly chart storm alongside so many amazing #fintwit content creators. It’s always an honour to have our charts included in Callum’s curated content. Thank you…
Many thanks to @Callum_Thomas for including this @asr_london chart of US yields in his ever excellent weekly chart storm alongside so many amazing #fintwit content creators. It’s always an honour to have our charts included in Callum’s curated content. Thank you… https://t.co/VQXTT31IAI
Thank you to @stevehouf for sharing his time and thoughts at @asr_london this afternoon. So much to discuss and so little time! Fascinating discussion on his pricing power models and his work on fiscal issuance in different inflation regimes. It was great to meet Steve in person.
Thank you to @stevehouf for sharing his time and thoughts at @asr_london this afternoon. So much to discuss and so little time! Fascinating discussion on his pricing power models and his work on fiscal issuance in different inflation regimes. It was great to meet Steve in person.
If you do want to add-in the buyback yield on top of the dividend yield to look at the relative valuation of Bonds and Equities this is what you get... a level of overall yield still lower than anytime since the mid-2000s, the early 2000s, 1987 and the Nifty-50 period.
Why I do NOT use Buybacks in valuation comparisons with Cash or Bond Yields... because the latter are 'reliable' income streams, as are dividends (which are rarely cut), as the Chart below shows, Buybacks are much more volatile... and the income from them less reliable.
120 years of the Bond/Equity Yield Ratio. This chart shows how today's extreme divergence between Bonds and Equity yields was previously only seen briefly in 1987, and a longer period in the Tech bubble... It may not matter in the short run, but longer-term, valuations matter
The TINY (#thereisnoyeild) market means that you can now get almost 4x the yield in Treasury Bills rather than US Large Cap stocks...in the last 100 years has only ever been the case in the Tech Bubble years
From TINA (There is No Alternative) to TINY (There is No Yield) - We recently highlighted to @asr_london clients that US S&P Yields at 1.4% had only been lower 3% of the time in the last 100 years...
From the world of TINA "There Is No Alternative" to the TINY (There is No Yield) world... Many thanks to @johnauthers for highlighting our recent comments in his excellent @opinion piece today. bloomberg.com/opinion/articl… via @opinion
ASR Asset Allocation Survey Results | 5 Top Charts #economics #macroeconomics #research #assetallocation #investmentstrategy #assetallocationsurvey
Jim Bianco @biancoresearch
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It appears the "basis trade" is back (long cash #Treasury notes, short futures), something as noted the #Fed has been concerned about "blowing up" given the amount of leverage involved. from @IanRHarnett via @dailychartbook
No Wonder Europe Isn’t Growing - European banks are making huge profits and paying out giant dividends in the middle of a severe interest rate shock in which bad debts have barely budged. It's a clear sign of a banking system that no longer takes enough credit risk to support…
From Fri, Apr 29, 2011, William & Kate royal wedding watch party at Hyde Park. I was a masters student in Zurich and visiting my English friend, whom I had met on a Nile cruise trip when we studied at the American university in Cairo in 2008. Hard to believe that it was a full 13…
@abcampbell @IanRHarnett @Callum_Thomas @asr_london buybacks started for 2 reasons; 1) tax benefits vs dividends 2) a law restricting CEO pay led to them getting paid in share options instead (and of course now they make many times more, the law backfired) Imo
I will always be grateful to the FinTwit community for the support received over the years: cheers! Been very busy with the hedge fund launch but I’ll be soon back sharing more macro thoughts here.
@IanRHarnett Cool chart and likely a better way to think about it.
2s getting close to 5% again, haven't been there since November. No longer a good short imo. I can continue to collect 5.25% or lock in 5% for 2 years.
@IanRHarnett Good chart. High valuations relative to bonds are only a problem once equities stop going up every month. Then it could become a problem relatively quickly.
Any speech by Mario Draghi is always worth reading. This one is no exception. Hard truths here. Let’s hope EU leaders - and voters - are listening. geopolitique.eu/en/2024/04/16/…
But surely the world has changed over the past 100 years and it is different this time, no? </sarcasm>
The TINY (#thereisnoyeild) market means that you can now get almost 4x the yield in Treasury Bills rather than US Large Cap stocks...in the last 100 years has only ever been the case in the Tech Bubble years
@IanRHarnett @asr_london Imagine being a dividend investoor and purposely avoiding monopolistic big tech corps with network effects. Lol
Mobile phones and map apps have made travel so much easier. Here is another example: photo translation. You take a photo with the app and it translates the words. Not perfect but very useful for menus etc. see this example of a poster I saw today
April 8: We've updated our Market Probability Tracker following @BLS_gov's release of March's #employment report. View the #AtlantaFed update online now: atlfed.org/43O25ET #ATLFedResearch
The S&P 500's dividend yield has moved down to 1.35%, the lowest since Q4 2021. All-time low was 1.12% in Q1 2000. $SPX
With quite some companies permanently implementing flexible WFH / office presence policies, who on earth is still building and financing new office space?
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