Warren Pies @WarrenPies
Founder @3F_Research...Formerly with Ned Davis Research, Recovering Attorney (step 4), Highlighting when I'm rt...downplaying when I'm wrong. 3fourteenresearch.com FL Joined February 2014-
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With so much going on in the hard money space recently, what a great time to get together with @thomasg_grizzle for the @grizzlemedia Hard Money conference. Check out our convo and a bunch of others with folks like @WarrenPies, @ETFProfessor & more! youtube.com/live/ltLjgTnG1…
Grizzle Hard Money Conference Live! #Gold #Silver #Bitcoin x.com/i/broadcasts/1…
Grizzle Hard Money: Gold, Silver & #Bitcoin ⚒️ Friday, April 26th, 2024 at 10AM ET LIVE on Twitter & YouTube: youtube.com/live/ltLjgTnG1… We've brought together a lineup of industry heavy hitters 🫡 ◾️Warren Pies @WarrenPies @3F_Research ◾️Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited…
Does Q2 2024 = Q2 2012? -Both were preceded by two straight quarters of +10% S&P gains (2 of only 3 historically). -Presidential election years w/ incumbent on ballot. In general, I'm not big on analogs, but this one has my attention. @3F_Research
More fake compounders or compounders past their prime taking pain $HD first. $ODFL today. The compounder bros in a lot of pain. Funny thing is $ODFL valuation is still crazy and basically admitted on call today they’ll let competitors eat their lunch indefinitely
More fake compounders or compounders past their prime taking pain $HD first. $ODFL today. The compounder bros in a lot of pain. Funny thing is $ODFL valuation is still crazy and basically admitted on call today they’ll let competitors eat their lunch indefinitely
$META
Russian decline rates ramping would be a bullish curveball…
Refiners have retraced ~50% of the geopol spike. Too many generalists were running into these w/ no real understanding of the business. I'd guess the whole post-March parabolic move will be erased in short order.
Refiners have retraced ~50% of the geopol spike. Too many generalists were running into these w/ no real understanding of the business. I'd guess the whole post-March parabolic move will be erased in short order.
Another excellent summary of where the market stands heading into next week…factors arguing for a bounce vs further weakening.
Another excellent summary of where the market stands heading into next week…factors arguing for a bounce vs further weakening.
I'm hearing more and more people justify the stock bull continuing by rotating into new leadership like Energy. This is not going to happen. Energy leadership is unhealthy and, when it persists, it is the death knell for bull markets.
$SPY I'm in @WarrenPies camp currently (10ish% correction as shown on my $ES chart as example) - but im not yet in @dampedspring 's 'highs are in for the year' camp yet.... #OpenMind #Level2Level
Talking about this with @michaelsantoli at 3:15 on @CNBCClosingBell
Talking about this with @michaelsantoli at 3:15 on @CNBCClosingBell
Always enjoy talking to @thomasg_grizzle and @ScottW_Grizzle !
Always enjoy talking to @thomasg_grizzle and @ScottW_Grizzle !
Correct Unless production is impacted, geopolitical risk is a fancier way of referencing sentiment.
Correct Unless production is impacted, geopolitical risk is a fancier way of referencing sentiment.
Paulo Macro @PauloMacro
140K Followers 263 Following Speculation is the search for truth in price and time. Not investment advice - just personal views. Blog at https://t.co/DD2iUKbdLz
Kuppy @hkuppy
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Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited
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Le Shrub🌳🔥🇺�.. @agnostoxxx
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137K Followers 2K Following CIO of Praetorian Capital and author of Kuppy’s Korner blog at https://t.co/fygVkh2Zbk Also tracking Event-Driven strategies at https://t.co/UfYZR6ERSN. CEO at YAK CN.
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138K Followers 688 Following CIO at @UnlimitedFnds | PM of $HFND | Fmr IC @Bridgewater | Described as one of the "sane" voices on #fintwit | Comments are not investment advice
Le Shrub🌳🔥🇺�.. @agnostoxxx
104K Followers 1K Following Founder and CIO of a $1 Trillion Hedge Fun. Account for entertainment purposes only. Explicit language
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173K Followers 1K Following Chief Strategist Simplify Asset Management | PM of $FIG | not investment advice
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94K Followers 2K Following GS Commodities Trader➡Canyon Cvt/Cap Arb➡Akanthos Multi-Arb/Distressed➡Kao Family Office🏦Globetrotter✈ Headbanger🤘Star Wars Fan🌌 Mixologist🍸Diver🤿
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85K Followers 4K Following Let’s make Europe safe again. Commodities
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Joseph Wang @FedGuy12
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86K Followers 806 Following Chief Investment Strategist at Piper Sandler. CFA, Factor Investing, #HOPE, Respect The Lag, Not Financial Advice
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57K Followers 3K Following Managed Fidelity Overseas Fund, #1 mutual fund in USA. Former Peter Lynch assistant. Barron’s Round Table. Founded two $1b+ hedge funds. “KNOW WHAT YOU OWN.”
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It is, apparently, “the endgame” for yen, where nobody can do anything (kind of a weird situation to call an ‘endgame’). Kishida, “like Kuroda, knows the terrible truth.” Then there is some BTC. But one million views and 7000 likes can’t be wrong. Fintwit is amazeballs.
this is it. we're moving to a new stage of the Endgame. Japanese Yen ripping through barriers like paper, passing each level where the BoJ intervened before. The slow motion meltdown has finally begun to accelerate, and authorities are powerless to stop the decline, unless they…
Two months after hip surgery. was given permission to ride the outside bike. Exciting!!! Heading out soon
Who wants to watch?
Can’t decide whether it is funny, ridiculous or sad that the CEOs of Occidental Petroleum and Delta Airlines are on the new AI safety board. Less than half of the 22 members have any real AI knowledge. Also odd that it’s not even vaguely bipartisan, has zero open source AI…
@tunguz My feeling about whoever appointed this board:
@Makeabuck2 I have seen people here claim a 9 sharpe and run a substack. It’s crazy!
@MayankSeksaria haha.. yep… it’s like you can say some of those most outrageous unrealistic things here and there’s a large contingent to cheer you on… this person I subtweeted turned out to be 20 😂 x.com/makeabuck2/sta…
Bros here will pretend to run a fund and ask Bill Ackman to collab like a doofus. But end up writing substacks. MFW, people IRL are starting funds every other week.
riddle me this Fintwit: if y’all ran a billion or tens of billions hedge funds in your glory days, why the actual fuck are you writing long form shit and subscribing to each others’ newsletters? <plumbers & sell side 💩birds sit it out>
The story gets worse Old man was a drunk and couldn’t deal with his consequences I supported him for 6 years off my trading revenue Finally cut him off and he went suicide Talk about guilt hot damn
The most impactful moment of my life My baby brother was shot and killed by a guy with nothing to loose at the wrong place at the wrong time Changed my entire life trajectory Still think about you and miss you Daniel, my brother It’s also why you can’t break me
With so much going on in the hard money space recently, what a great time to get together with @thomasg_grizzle for the @grizzlemedia Hard Money conference. Check out our convo and a bunch of others with folks like @WarrenPies, @ETFProfessor & more! youtube.com/live/ltLjgTnG1…
Ladies and gentlemen, we got him.
This dude is doing a total 180 in his life! I wonder what woke him up?
Baptism. This Sunday I’m taking the plunge! How was it for you?
@WarrenPies @PeterBerezinBCA @bcaresearch Good point.
@WarrenPies @PeterBerezinBCA @bcaresearch The “market rents” argument is so weak I am floored people continue to make it. It ignores renewals and it’s not even that soft The only explanation really is just ideology. Possibly anchoring to the 2010-2015 experience. Just incredible lack of data use
Warren's adherence to the data v/s being ideologically driven. Much respect. And few.
@PeterBerezinBCA @bcaresearch The problem with this thesis is that asking rents are now reaccelerating at an above 2% clip.
Updated data on how broke NYC is despite insanely high tax rates The level of special interest rent seeking is without parallel As Federal positions to raise taxes, it’s going to get really tight in NYC, particularly if bonds (and eventually PE) weigh on pension returns
More fake compounders or compounders past their prime taking pain $HD first. $ODFL today. The compounder bros in a lot of pain. Funny thing is $ODFL valuation is still crazy and basically admitted on call today they’ll let competitors eat their lunch indefinitely
$ODFL and $CSGP have some real business model problems too. Estimates going down. Doesn’t matter. $AAPL I think widely understood to be extremely overvalued the PE has expanded relentlessly and didn’t even compress much in 2022 So much flow into stuff like this — may never end
@WarrenPies hahaha… old enough to remember that this playbook is undefeated and ALWAYS WORKS
@WarrenPies That's my concern as well. I've had loads of injuries over the years and while I'm not quite ready to slow down, I also want to be active and healthy when I'm older. Destroying my joints would not be ideal.
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