Ritik Goyal @rpgoyal_

Goldman Sachs | Duke ‘22 themonetaryfrontier.substack.com/t/whitepaper New York, NY Joined September 2013

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Ritik Goyal @rpgoyal_

a year ago

Been getting some DMs so just wanted to let folks know I recently started a job that doesn’t allow any public stuff. So I’ll be dark on X for now, but my DMs are open! Enjoyed exploring the macroeconomy with y’all 🏦 Below are some folks I have to thank for greatly influencing…

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Ritik Goyal @rpgoyal_

a year ago

All government spending is debt monetization, QE or not. Pre-QE, the government would fund its spending by printing new securities out of thin air. Post-QE, same thing. QE is completely separate and mostly irrelevant.

Joseph Wang @FedGuy12

a year ago

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Ritik Goyal @rpgoyal_

a year ago

The weird thing about "we're repeating the 1970s stagflation" is that the 1970s actually had some of the best real GDP growth of any decade in recent history.

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Dow @mark_dow

a year ago

10 years of ZIRP and QE with inflation never getting above target should have been your first clue that monetary policy isn't nearly as powerful as we were all taught it was.

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Ritik Goyal @rpgoyal_

a year ago

R2K being -16% from its 2021 high is the bull case, not the bear case. Most US companies are still deeply undervalued relative to current corp profitability and nominal growth. The mid-2000s style boom in cyclical risk (banks, commods, industrials) is still ahead of us.

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Ritik Goyal @rpgoyal_

a year ago

In other words, the demand for safe US assets exploded (via China), and at the same time, the supply of those safe assets fell. The only solution was for private safe assets to make up that shortfall. The lesson is to never let true safe assets ever become too scarce.

Bill @wabuffo

a year ago

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Ritik Goyal @rpgoyal_

a year ago

So many unrelated concepts being conflated here. Have to think of money as dual-sided asset and liability. Deficit spending does not "offset" anything the Fed does. QT only converts money from one form to another; deficit spending creates new money. Categorically different.

Daniel Lacalle @dlacalle_IA

a year ago

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Ritik Goyal @rpgoyal_

a year ago

This is like asking how NGDP growth can keep expanding when the supply of physical paper cash is falling. Everyone knows it's not literal paper money that matters, it's total purchasing power, and converting paper money to a bank deposit doesn't change that. But Bob has to fall…

Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited

a year ago

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Ritik Goyal @rpgoyal_

a year ago

Bob is just making stuff up. Inflation falls when money creation falls. Money creation falls when gov spending or bank lending falls. The Fed has little ability to constrain these flows (and often unintentionally accelerates them). And the bond market is an indicator, not a…