Patrick Saner @patrick_saner
Head Macro Strategy @SwissRe. Former World Bank, SNB and UBS. Views are my own/personal. linkedin.com/in/patricksane… Zurich, Switzerland Joined January 2021-
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Much of what makes music phenomenal in my view is not only the rhythm and lyrics but the context. What you associate the music with: where you listened to a song, with whom, what you went through. And hence when for example my parents used to say that "today's music sucks", it's…
Very much agree with @VPatelFX's take on the Yen situation. This aside, our fundamental fair value model of the Yen also suggests that the air is getting thinner.
Very much agree with @VPatelFX's take on the Yen situation. This aside, our fundamental fair value model of the Yen also suggests that the air is getting thinner. https://t.co/7HdsJkblJk
Geopolitical risk is rising globally as the Peace Dividend may have come to an end.
Biden's presidential election odds are increasing as national polling has drawn even. However, Swing States/Tipping-Point State averages are still pretty clearly in Trump's favor. Interesting divergence.
"Tale of the Tape: weird to see simultaneous strength in tech (annualizing 21% YTD), commodities (47%) & US dollar (16%); happened in only 5 of past 60 years…1969, 1983, 1999, 2016, 2021... years of stimulus-induced booms (Reagan “twin deficits” in ‘83, COVID in ‘21), bubbles…
BofA captures the Zeitgeist nicely: "Biggest piece of M&A in past 12 months was the merger of the US Treasury and the Federal Reserve" 😉
The below charts show the indicators the NBER uses to determine whether a recession occurs or not. On this basis, things are still looking pretty healthy for now. That said, recessions are often called after the fact anyway, so needs to be taken with a grain of salt.
26 degrees. BBQ with friends. Kids running around. Nice.
Stocks can still do well when yields rise gradually, but they typically struggle when interest rate volatility picks up. In this regard, the recent pick up in rates vol also warrants watching from an equity perspective.
Stocks can still do well when yields rise gradually, but they typically struggle when interest rate volatility picks up. In this regard, the recent pick up in rates vol also warrants watching from an equity perspective.
Petar is spot on. It's not only how much the inflation level is above target, but also the time above target. Inflation expectations are always anchored until they aren't. I don't think we are close to that point, but I do think long-term inf expectations should be a bit higher
Petar is spot on. It's not only how much the inflation level is above target, but also the time above target. Inflation expectations are always anchored until they aren't. I don't think we are close to that point, but I do think long-term inf expectations should be a bit higher
If the global industrial cycle is turning for real, the already decent metals performance since last year would likely have more room to run.
Obviously the year is still reasonably young. Still a pretty striking chart.
What kind of growth and inflation mix do assets price? Our analysis indicates that on aggregate, asset markets price US growth of 2.7% in 1Q 2025 compared to an expected consensus growth rate of 1.4% then, whilst inflation remains above the 2% target. Current equity market…
US services related inflation has shown few signs of abating whilst core goods disinflation has largely run its course. Meanwhile, non-farm payrolls momentum has picked up.
Wifey @WifeyAlpha
180K Followers 4K Following Systematic Investment Research // Wifey Alpha Multi Strategy Index // Free Mobile App & Dashboard // Bloomberg Ticker: $WIFEY // Trading Strategies
KKGB Kitty @INArteCarloDoss
174K Followers 2K Following Cellar Macro Cat 🔥 home of @MiamKitty🔥 home of @kittysquiddy 🔥 home of @roaringmeows 🔥 home of @CumLordeAwards
Paulo Macro @PauloMacro
140K Followers 263 Following Speculation is the search for truth in price and time. Not investment advice - just personal views. Blog at https://t.co/DD2iUKbdLz
Le Shrub🌳🔥🇺�.. @agnostoxxx
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Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited
138K Followers 688 Following CIO at @UnlimitedFnds | PM of $HFND | Fmr IC @Bridgewater | Described as one of the few "sane" voices on #fintwit | Comments are not investment advice
Simon Ree @simon_ree
44K Followers 1K Following 25yr career at Goldman & Citi | Trader | Speaker | Bestselling author of The Tao of Trading | Jeet Kune Do Instructor | Tweets not financial advice
Alexander Stahel 🇺.. @BurggrabenH
85K Followers 4K Following Let’s make Europe safe again. Commodities
Andy Constan @dampedspring
133K Followers 329 Following DampedSpring active macro & beta @2Graybeards for beta. Both for investor education, Brevan Howard, Bridgewater, Salomon, Dad of 4. Go Penn, No tweet is advice
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Michael Kao @UrbanKaoboy
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Kantro @MichaelKantro
86K Followers 806 Following Chief Investment Strategist at Piper Sandler. CFA, Factor Investing, #HOPE, Respect The Lag, Not Financial Advice
Michael A. Arouet @MichaelAArouet
75K Followers 765 Following Compounding. Charts and as I don’t need to sell anything here also irony. No investment advice. I don’t send DMs, my impersonators do. I‘m not on Telegram etc.
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81K Followers 909 Following 42 Macro LLC — the leading Macro Risk Management service on Global Wall St. advising on trillions in client AUM. Not investment advice.
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Darren Sissons @KiwiPMI
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mei @almei19__09
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Capex Insider. Invest.. @michaelnyaga1
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Tgcrypto 🌪️ @tgcrypto99
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8K Followers 3K Following δ γ θ 📉📈 smoothing curves and exploiting kinks, SIG Alum. Rebuilding after natural disasters. 🌊🌬️🌪️Energy derivatives trader. Never investment advice. 🛢️
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A @neonbusan
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Paulo Macro @PauloMacro
140K Followers 263 Following Speculation is the search for truth in price and time. Not investment advice - just personal views. Blog at https://t.co/DD2iUKbdLz
Le Shrub🌳🔥🇺�.. @agnostoxxx
104K Followers 1K Following Founder and CIO of a $1 Trillion Hedge Fun. Account for entertainment purposes only. Explicit language
Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited
138K Followers 688 Following CIO at @UnlimitedFnds | PM of $HFND | Fmr IC @Bridgewater | Described as one of the few "sane" voices on #fintwit | Comments are not investment advice
Simon Ree @simon_ree
44K Followers 1K Following 25yr career at Goldman & Citi | Trader | Speaker | Bestselling author of The Tao of Trading | Jeet Kune Do Instructor | Tweets not financial advice
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Alexander Stahel 🇺.. @BurggrabenH
85K Followers 4K Following Let’s make Europe safe again. Commodities
Andy Constan @dampedspring
133K Followers 329 Following DampedSpring active macro & beta @2Graybeards for beta. Both for investor education, Brevan Howard, Bridgewater, Salomon, Dad of 4. Go Penn, No tweet is advice
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95K Followers 2K Following Contrarian value investor. O&G. Not advice, do not rely, past performance not indicative, positioning may change w/out notice. Likes & r/ts are not endorsements
PiQ @PiQSuite
100K Followers 3K Following Intelligent Market News. Geopolitics & Financial Markets. PiQ Suite is a fully customisable and free-to-access information aggregation platform.
Michael Kao @UrbanKaoboy
94K Followers 2K Following GS Commodities Trader➡Canyon Cvt/Cap Arb➡Akanthos Multi-Arb/Distressed➡Kao Family Office🏦Globetrotter✈ Headbanger🤘Star Wars Fan🌌 Mixologist🍸Diver🤿
Kuppy @hkuppy
137K Followers 2K Following CIO of Praetorian Capital and author of Kuppy’s Korner blog at https://t.co/fygVkh2Zbk Also tracking Event-Driven strategies at https://t.co/UfYZR6ERSN. CEO at YAK CN.
Sam Lawhon @lawhon_sam
21K Followers 650 Following Securities offered through LPL Financial, Member SIPC https://t.co/zuDxapKm5T.
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159K Followers 598 Following Subscribe at https://t.co/VGtUvtX2QK for latest thoughts and analysis. YouTube: https://t.co/wTjbN1iNQ8
Menthor Q @MenthorQpro
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Dario Perkins @darioperkins
60K Followers 2K Following MD Global Macro @TS_Lombard, macro themes/research/risks, central-bank specialist, started career at HM Treasury in late 90s, ex ABN AMRO, AC Milan fan
Kantro @MichaelKantro
86K Followers 806 Following Chief Investment Strategist at Piper Sandler. CFA, Factor Investing, #HOPE, Respect The Lag, Not Financial Advice
ʎllǝuuop ʇuǝɹq @donnelly_brent
71K Followers 812 Following President of @Spectra_Markets. Author of am/FX and Alpha Trader. I like trading, table tennis, my family, writing, hard/fast music, and poker. Not in that order
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4K Followers 714 Following Top-10 NYT bestselling author @AEI Retired @BainCapital Partner https://t.co/gmmdbORBTO Tweets of noteworthy economic news from my research team.
Tina @moreproteinbars
8K Followers 3K Following δ γ θ 📉📈 smoothing curves and exploiting kinks, SIG Alum. Rebuilding after natural disasters. 🌊🌬️🌪️Energy derivatives trader. Never investment advice. 🛢️
𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂 @TXMCtrades
84K Followers 164 Following Host, @AlphaBetaSoup_ on YouTube | Student of markets, history, and #Bitcoin | Learning in public daily | Relentlessly curious | Naturally spicy
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26K Followers 1K Following phd in shitposting + liquidity theory + schizo alpha nfa
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11K Followers 394 Following CEO of Gavekal - for more information, go to https://t.co/e9Kd7vb4vq website
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134K Followers 149 Following Retired Pro Skateboarder / Co Founder: Saint Archer Brewery / Co Founder & President: Commune Capital / Thousand Oaks City Council Member
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295K Followers 412 Following Passionate about moving leaders to act—with speed and scale. Chair @KleinerPerkins
Iron Feliks of Nazare.. @NUMISMATICS9
5K Followers 5K Following G10, EM, FM & Pariah State- FX, Rates & Arms Dealing-- Macro-esque Provocateur & Scaphist in Foreign Policy, Vice, & Gallows Humor, all w/ malice aforethought..
Robin Delta @heyrobinai
52K Followers 517 Following Tweets on how to use AI to make money & get more work done. ✉️ [email protected]
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19K Followers 4K Following Western Europe economy team leader at Bloomberg @economics. Tweets are not endorsements and opinions are my own.
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18K Followers 459 Following Rates strategist | Patriot | Feminist | Allergic to hypocrisy. Follow me for some cheap tricks & cheesy one-liners! Whack follol de rah!
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2K Followers 2K Following Senior editor for economics at Bloomberg. Opinions are mine, retweets don't endorse.
Francois Trahan, M²S.. @FrancoisTrahan
10K Followers 116 Following Founder of the @macroinstitute and Trahan Macro Research. Publishing sell-side research for 25+ years.
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10K Followers 411 Following Former Oilfield Services LevFin/HY analyst. Lived the 2015-2016 downturn. Sharing industry research and not investment advice.
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1K Followers 271 Following Journaliste & Présentatrice. Spé Banque/Finance, Énergie & Luxe. Sur @France24 @BFMBusiness @boursorama. 🎓@ESSEC
Gavekal @Gavekal
28K Followers 16 Following Gavekal is one of the leading independent providers of global investment research. It also advises a select range of funds and offers software solutions.
spaghettilisbon @spaghettilisbon
4K Followers 815 Following Macro/Abs Return PM, everything is a lie until proven otherwise I like to trade Bunds
August Gudmundsson @august1gud
85 Followers 189 Following Junior Economist Macro Strategy @SwissRe. Global Macro. Views are my own.
The Market Huddle @TheMarketHuddle
16K Followers 3 Following Join Patrick Ceresna and Kevin Muir bi-weekly as these two traders get together to discuss the market action while having a little fun in the process.
Orange Book 🍊📖 @orangebook_
530K Followers 376 Following Thoughts triggering thoughts. Learning on the go. No label required.
Felix Geiger @Flx_Geiger
1K Followers 659 Following @bundesbank | views are my own | private | monetary policy, financial markets, finance, economics | retweets, likes and following do not imply endorsement
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307 Followers 313 Following FX Cycle Edge developer--FX Money Manager #1 on Switzerland's HSBC Private Bank list-- Calling it as I see it. Always keen to learn something new. Family first.
Barcelona School of E.. @bse_barcelona
14K Followers 1K Following The Barcelona School of Economics is an institution for research and graduate education in #Economics #Finance and #DataScience. #bsebarcelona
Anna Wong @AnnaEconomist
16K Followers 286 Following Chief US Economist, Bloomberg LP @economics. Former Fed/CEA/US Treasury, @uchi_economics. All opinions are my own.
SPX Trader @SPXTrades
17K Followers 375 Following Short term SPX/ES/NQ Trader. Not a financial advisor. Please do your own research about any trade. Tweets are just my opinions.
Nick G. @nickgiva1
22K Followers 229 Following JPM, Salomon, HF principal, bond trader. Co-host at @2graybeards since 2023. Running https://t.co/cgOYR5cb3Q since 2015 and https://t.co/heHmeYg9yr since 2018.
*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone
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K.I.S.S. @KISS_RHINO
4K Followers 96 Following Proud Dad, Entrepreneur, Futures / Equity Markets trader for almost 20 years #ES_F #NQ_F #CL_F. Tweets are NOT financial advice. Keeping Simple & Fun #KISS.
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52K Followers 1K Following Special Assistant to the President, National Economic Council. Former macro, @RooseveltInst. Liberal. #Rstats fan. Dad. Chicago guy. Personal account.
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8K Followers 1K Following Chief economist at Absolute Strategy Research in London. But on here I speak my own nonsense.
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258 Followers 611 Following Finance reporter at Politico Europe. BSc in Economics and Finance UoL. Media enthusiast. I’m the only one responsible for my own opinions. [email protected]
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797 Followers 190 Following Macro Strategist in hedge funds since 2006 New York, London - Now, Macro Strategist SEB, Stockholm: Opinions my own - no investment advice
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CME Group Interest Ra.. @Interest_Rates
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Mahir @MahirRasheed_
264 Followers 287 Following Economist @SwissRe, formerly @OxfordEconomics, @NYUniversity, @PaceUniversity. Patiently awaiting a Knicks championship.
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7K Followers 637 Following Back in markets, global macro. Author of "The Paradox of Risk". Former Senior Fellow @piie & economist @IMFnews. Views my own. Soccer player & coach, A license.
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3K Followers 1K Following Head of Trading - Switzerland - Commodities Options - Quantitative trading - Data driven
Empire Fed Mfg. Prices Paid 3 months > 12month average.
Gonna do a final rant Once upon a time on the floor, your word was your bond It’s still exist in private markets It’s lost amongst the greater society and needs to be recaptured Perhaps the best way I can say it is we need personal integrity in everything we do and you…
The most impactful moment of my life My baby brother was shot and killed by a guy with nothing to loose at the wrong place at the wrong time Changed my entire life trajectory Still think about you and miss you Daniel, my brother It’s also why you can’t break me
CTRL+A+Delete If it was important they’ll send a follow-up.
Gen Z has ‘email anxiety’ at work, struggling to cope with 1,000s of unread messages: ‘Hardest part of my job’ trib.al/gWYr8KB
I’ve attended a unique retreat since 2007. 60+ entrepreneurs meet at MIT, and we lock in for 4 intense days. We emerge with: ▪ World-conquering energy ▪ Clarity on business and life ▪ Fresh ideas and a renewed sense of purpose It’s called The Gathering Of Titans (GOT) 🧵
Holy shit we just we just won a silver medal in the world beer cup @tonalitybeers For a Belgian style dubbel
I often see from newer folks quote various luminaries *conclusions* about the markets or economy. Its a bad habit. That's because it doesn't improve your understanding. Much better to wrestle with whether their *reasoning* makes sense to develop your own intuitions over time.
A new centrally cleared era in repo markets is looming, which will cause an exodus from its shadowy yet most systemic regions. This may increase resiliency but also inhibit key trades gluing U.S. Treasury markets together. The Repo Leverage Squeeze™ is here... 1/
Today is my last day at @WSJ. I’m joining Yardeni Research as their chief markets strategist, working for Ed Yardeni. Grateful to have worked with truly exceptional colleagues at the Journal. I’m excited to join Yardeni soon; you can reach me at [email protected]
Seeing lots of talk about stagflation after the GDP report. I don't buy it. The reason inflation remains firm is because of strong aggregate labor income growth, which supports consumption. Today's report showed solid consumption again. If anything, it's just a hot economy.
Of course, the timing looks just perfect for a debate over a Treaty change. 😬
@paper_alfa @patrick_saner @VPatelFX only FED can save them
@patrick_saner @VPatelFX there is no easy way out here.
@patrick_saner @VPatelFX The BoJ is powerless in this situation as they can only suppress volatility in their bond markets, not FX. An intervention is pure bluff, as they have no firepower to intervene. They also don't want to hike rates purely to teach some speculators a lesson. They are stuck and the…
On $JPY - the problem with intervention is that once the genie is out of the bottle… it’s hard to put it back in. We’re at a stage where MoF/BoJ have no choice but to intervene. The best way would be for BoJ to hike 25bps this week. It’s not about the macro anymore (BoJ…
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