Duncan Weldon @DuncanWeldon
Economist, broadcaster & writer. Author of 200 Years of Muddling Through. Economics, history, other stuff. duncanweldon.substack.com Hertford Joined September 2009-
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People say the government lacks ambition. But they’ve just announced flying taxis by 2026… gov.uk/government/new…
The £8.9 billion margin in our central forecast against the debt falling target is lower than the average of £26.1 billion that Chancellors have set aside against their fiscal rules since 2010, and is a small fraction of the risks around any fiscal forecast. #Budget2024
Big macro policy picture: inflation and rates fall a bit quicker than expected back in November in the near term. That gives a short term boost to public finances. CHX using that to cut taxes a touch in the short run. Medium term picture broadly unchanged.
A public sector productivity plan? That’ll sort it.
Honestly, £25,000 of potential tax free savings per adult (ignoring children’s ISAs) is *a lot*.
Always get the sense that Jeremy Hunt is torn between quite sensible long term good policy making - lots of the investment tax treatment stuff, modest planning reforms, etc - and counter productive short term political driven measures. Today looks to continue that trend.
I've written a new personal post - and it's kind of timely for once. It's about why the UK economy is such a mess. What if raising productivity growth is not about big ideas, but doing lots of little things better? acjsissons.medium.com/lots-of-little…
Two quarters of contraction of real GDP will get headlines, but maybe this is the real story 👇 💥 GDP per person dropped every quarter of 2023. It hasn't grown since Q1 2022 💥 That's 7 quarters - longest unbroken run without per capita GDP growth since records began in 1955
GDP is estimated to have fallen in October to December (Quarter 4): ▪️ services fell (-0.2%) ▪️ construction fell (-1.3%) ▪️ production fell (-1.0%) ➡️ ons.gov.uk/economy/grossd…
NEW: we often talk about an age divide in politics, with young people much less conservative than the old. But this is much more a British phenomenon than a global one. 40% of young Americans voted Trump in 2020. But only 10% of UK under-30s support the Conservatives. Why?
I’ve semi-seriously often wondered if the real threat to terminals is just WhatsApp.
I’ve semi-seriously often wondered if the real threat to terminals is just WhatsApp.
This week the @KentClarkCenter polled its European and US panels on western support to Ukraine and the impact of sanctions on Russia. Some thoughts. kentclarkcenter.org/filterable-cat…
Interesting piece. cepr.org/voxeu/columns/…
In his inaugural article for the Clark Center's "On Global Markets", @DuncanWeldon discusses the nuance of macroeconomic policy trade-offs. kentclarkcenter.org/filterable-cat…
Sam Freedman @Samfr
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£45bn British industry by 2030!!!!
People say the government lacks ambition. But they’ve just announced flying taxis by 2026… gov.uk/government/new…
@DuncanLamont2 @DuncanWeldon 1.64 million people maxed out the £20,000 in 2020 to 2021. 800k in stocks and shares, nearly 700k in cash only (?!?) and the balance across both.
@DuncanWeldon I would have ended ISAs... think poor VFM if they are supposed to increase savings
HT @DuncanWeldon /@RobDotHutton / @PodTooFar for the recommendation.
@DuncanWeldon Luckily for bbg the regulators have their back. Messages on WhatsApp not allowed for many functions as firms can’t store/check everything is compliant.
@BrusselerMel @vebaccount @DuncanWeldon weren't you writing this?
@yorksranter @BrusselerMel @vebaccount @DuncanWeldon I was about to say "just as soon as someone capable of understanding the source material gets a BBC contact ie never" but yes, good call
@DuncanWeldon haven only read the snippet you posted but it sure seems odd that a response to competition would be LOWER productivity. That's not typically how things work. I wonder how much of that comes from Europe's stifling regulations and taxes that disincentivize success.
@DuncanWeldon So how about no change in prices. Nope still bad 😵
@DuncanWeldon I for one am very glad you're back with your usual stream of good news to cheer us all up
@DuncanWeldon @SoumayaKeynes That's true though. The number of times people say "I know you're 100 percent faithful."
@DuncanWeldon @johnmcternan I've missed your turkey recipes
@RajaKorman @DuncanWeldon @KentClarkCenter They used to have a parking booth that said "Chicago Booth," but the no-fun police shut it down.