Career Index market maker.
Now focused on structural analysis, systematic delta flow & algorithmic dealer hedging to predict market behavior.volsignals.com Miami, FLJoined September 2019
might do a recap of the week for those interested in joining our final Trial Cohort before we close them for our traditional end-of-quarter recharge.
interested?
there's your "daytraders buy the condor level bounce"
doesn't mean it can't hold, but it's not mechanical-
it's more a benefit to the IC seller that everyone "thinks this is mechanically supportive"
SPX for context:
Since Feb:
6147 —> 4835
4835 back to 6532
385 points of upside // 1,312 points of downside
August through current peak to trough demonstrate similar ratio of upside vs downside range
Where's the strength?
Vol control remain buyers as April realized vol continues to drop out of lookback windows. This dynamic is currently not "short gamma": As realized vol is decreasing even on down days, we get buying regardless. (stabilizing on the way down, magnifying on the way up)
Vol control remain buyers as April realized vol continues to drop out of lookback windows. This dynamic is currently not "short gamma": As realized vol is decreasing even on down days, we get buying regardless. (stabilizing on the way down, magnifying on the way up)
SYNTHETIC NEGATIVE GAMMA
that's how you should think about systematic flows.
Why?
market higher = buy
market lower = sell
Momentum, trend, & vol-scaling strategies are all negative Gamma for markets
Why have we rallied so hard off the lows?
look who bought, and how much ->
Think Gamma doesn't matter?
...think again.
this is a chart of the expiring 0DTE inventory at yesterday's close, courtesy of @OptionsDepth
I overlaid the SPX price action on top of the position to make it clear—
(I don't think this needs any more explaining)
Think Gamma doesn't matter?
...think again.
this is a chart of the expiring 0DTE inventory at yesterday's close, courtesy of @OptionsDepth
I overlaid the SPX price action on top of the position to make it clear—
(I don't think this needs any more explaining) https://t.co/tx0gTwNd2z
oh you like Vega, do you?
SPX Dec 2026 6200 / 7200 Strangle
tt74 with a 5d
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