Dr. Ed Yardeni: Fed Cuts Rates, But Is It Enough?
☑️ 25bps cut left S&P 500 targets unchanged (6800 base, 25% meltup odds, 20% correction)
☑️ 10yr yield rose to 4.14%
☑️ Dollar bounce, foreign inflows strong
☑️ Gold still tracking $4,000 by year-end
Powell: policy remains…
🌎 Unpacking Trump 2.0's Tariffs
📌 Not just about deficits—leveraging for investments & US hegemony.
📌 Manufacturing dips ahead, but AI boom + Fed cuts offer support.
📌 AI's productivity cycle? Game-changer for resilience.
👉 Key takeaways from our webinar:…
🚨 BREAKING: Trump admin is weighing a 1:1 semiconductor rule: for every chip US firms import, they must match with domestic output—or face ~100% tariffs.
Policy could benefit firms expanding US production (TSMC, Micron, GlobalFoundries) but challenge tech companies with complex…
US markets pulled back for 3rd straight day after Fed Chair Powell warned stocks are "overvalued" + strong jobs data reduced rate cut expectations.
With the Shiller P/E now at 38.4—approaching dot-com territory—investors are questioning how much AI-driven gains are bubble vs.…
Copper +2.7% this week (LME ~$10.3k/t intraday) on the LME, driven by acute supply disruptions: Freeport's Grasberg force majeure after a fatal accident and Hudbay's Peru mill shutdown.
However, global exchange inventories are up YTD (+10-15%)—mostly a COMEX build driven by US…
🏗️ G-7 nations & EU considering price floors for rare earths to break China's "Great Wall" monopoly
Morgan Stanley: growth in non-China supply chains requires accepting higher prices. The US already set price floors with MP Materials - Australia may follow.
Why? China controls…
🇺🇸 US initial jobless claims drop to 218K in mid-Sept, down 14K & below 235K forecast, hitting a 2-month low.
Continuing claims fall to 1.926M, lowest since May. Federal claims rise to 635 amid DOGE layoffs & shutdown risks.
Labor market holds firm!
en.macromicro.me/collections/4/…
🏛️ WH memo orders agencies to plan permanent job cuts if gov shuts down Oct 1. With 73.5% shutdown odds, jobless claims could spike amid a job market already on edge and in need of sustained support.
en.macromicro.me/charts/126702/…
🛢️ While the immediate oil market faces a confirmed supply glut from OPEC+'s accelerated production hikes, with global inventories poised for their largest build since the pandemic and WTI prices lingering around $64 per barrel, this environment echoes past cycles where prolonged…
US Bitcoin ETFs reached ~$165B AUM with just the initial wave of approvals.
With SEC's new Generic Listing Standards cutting approval time from 240 to 75 days, expect this institutional adoption curve to steepen as altcoin ETFs (DOGE, XRP, potentially SOL) enter the market.…
NEW AI Industry Dashboard consolidating supply/demand data across models, adoption, and corporate earnings:
📌 AI adoption reached 50% of US households in 3 years (vs 12 for internet)
📌 Taiwan AI exports +34.6% YoY
📌 Oracle AI contracts grew 359% to $455B
📌 Only 10% of…
🇨🇳 Alibaba claims their new Qwen3-Max (1T+ parameters) outperforms GPT-5
Also, $53B AI investment plan expansion announced + Global cloud infrastructure push (Brazil, France, Netherlands)
As the China-US AI model gap widens, CEO Eddie Wu declares: "LLM will be the next…
Central bank gold reserves (~$4.42T) have overtaken foreign official Treasury holdings ($3.92T) for the first time since the mid-1990s.
The reversal reflects years of CB accumulation and this year’s price surge amplifying existing holdings. Actual gold reserves may be higher due…
🇨🇳 China’s equity market is outperforming developed peers this year
Recent August data showed:
🔹 High-tech manufacturing +9.3% YoY (servers +86%, lithium batteries +44%)
🔹 AI/energy infrastructure investment surge (+34% in IT services)
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