Exante Data @ExanteData
Data driven insights before the consensus We serve the world's top institutional investors. Check out: https://t.co/WcLvjdLaHc https://t.co/RWQ9sYIeag (substack) exantedata.com New York, NY Joined October 2016-
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Here we compare #Bitcoin's performance during Asian, European and American trading periods. Today $BTC returned -1.2% in Asia, and 0.2% in Europe. Yesterday $BTC returned 0.3% in the American session.
Here we take a closer look at the daily returns of major cryptocurrencies and other global assets in terms of their volatility adjusted returns.
$USD has been mixed since last Friday, April 26. $JPY has depreciated the most vs. USD at -2.33%, while the $AUD has strengthed the most with a 1.8% return. #Forex
Here is a broad view of global stock indices. During the last week, top gainers based on volatility adjusted returns include: HANGSENG (8.8%), IBEX35 (3.96%), FTSE100 (3.15%). In contrast, least performers were ASX200 (0.26%), IPSA (0.14%), IDR LQ45 (-1.95%).
The largest move in the last 7 days was: Wheat. Commodities that had 2 standard deviation moves during the period include: Wheat
The largest move in the last 7 days was: China 10s30s. G10 bond yields that had 2 standard deviation moves during the period include: China 10s30s, AU 2Y
The largest move in the last 24 hours was: China 10s30s. G10 bond yields that had 2 standard deviation moves during the period include: China 10s30s, China 2s10s, China 10Y
Here we compare #Bitcoin's performance during Asian, European and American trading periods. Today $BTC returned -0.2% in Asia, and -0.65% in Europe. Yesterday $BTC returned 0.44% in the American session.
The largest move in the last 24h was: Aluminum. Commodities that had 2 standard deviation moves during the period include: Aluminum
USD has broadly strengthened since 5AM this morning, with $EUR, $SEK, and $JPY depreciating the most vs. USD. The $MXN was strongest vs. USD with a 0.66% return, while the $SEK was weakest vs. USD with a -0.478% return. #Forex
Over the last 20 days, we have generally seen the S&P index closely track the signals from global assets correlated to risk sentiment. The S&P has outperformed the model by +0.2% cumulatively during the period.
2 Hours ahead of the NY Open, our cross-asset model indicates a +0.16% gain for the S&P (while futures are up +0.69% since prior close). The signal from Global Equities is most bullish (+0.27%), while the signal from Rates is least bullish (+0.04%).
The largest absolute flows over the past 7 days have been in the following ETFs: $MBB ($1.3B) $FTCS (-$1.2B) $VOO ($1.2B) $TQQQ ($1.1B) $SPY ($0.8B)
Looking at notional #ETF flows to monitor sector rotations within US Equities: currently the sectors experiencing the largest inflows compared to their averages include Gold and High Yield, while outflows are being seen in Treasury and Small Cap.
Global median inflation bottomed out at 2.1% in November (in 3m/3m terms), but has since increased to 2.9% in March. Having said that, the March print was broadly in line with the February one. #inflation #cpi
The Yen is the main mover. As we have often seen before, there is 'hope' into the BoJ meeting for 'something' and when that something does not materialize, the Yen weakens. That is the basic story...
The Yen is the main mover. As we have often seen before, there is 'hope' into the BoJ meeting for 'something' and when that something does not materialize, the Yen weakens. That is the basic story...
Over the last 20 days, we have generally seen the S&P index closely track the signals from global assets correlated to risk sentiment. The S&P has outperformed the model by +0.3% cumulatively during the period.
5 Hours ahead of the NY Open, our cross-asset model indicates a +0.14% gain for the S&P (while futures are up +0.69% since prior close). The signal from Global Equities is most bullish (+0.24%), while the signal from FX is least bullish (+0.01%).
Here we take a closer look at the daily returns of major cryptocurrencies and other global assets in terms of their volatility adjusted returns.
Andreas Steno Larsen @AndreasSteno
227K Followers 2K Following CEO at Steno Research. Macro, investing and geopolitics. Host @ Real Vision and Weekly "Macro Sunday" and “Store Penge” podcasts.
Jens Nordvig 🇩🇰.. @jnordvig
59K Followers 2K Following PhD Economist, Founder+CEO @ExanteData & @MarketReaderInc Formerly: MD at Goldman, Head of Research at Nomura & Bridgewater. #1 Ranked by Institutional Investor
Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited
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ʎllǝuuop ʇuǝɹq @donnelly_brent
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Alexander Stahel 🇺.. @BurggrabenH
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Christophe Barraud�.. @C_Barraud
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Pierre Andurand 🇺�.. @AndurandPierre
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Jens Nordvig 🇩🇰.. @jnordvig
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ʎllǝuuop ʇuǝɹq @donnelly_brent
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Christophe Barraud�.. @C_Barraud
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113K Followers 692 Following Founder Blokland Smart Multi-Asset Fund, investing in scarce assets, Quality Stocks, Gold, & Bitcoin. Founder True Insights - independent investment research.
Benn Eifert 🥷🏴�.. @bennpeifert
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PlayingMantitos @MantoDaPoet
358 Followers 955 Following Former (star) trader @ LTCM, Lehman, Amaranth, Archegos, and 3AC. Tha drunken @saylor 's apprentice. Interviewing for Softbank Vision Fund soon. Life = Leverage
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2K Followers 553 Following Managing Editor, Middle East Money at Bloomberg News. In Dubai after a decade in London. Will mostly tweet about💰but there will be some 🏏 and 🐕
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Institute of Fiscal S.. @IFSD_IFPD
2K Followers 102 Following The official account of the Institute of Fiscal Studies and Democracy. En français: @IFPD_IFSD “Vision without execution is hallucination” Thomas Edison
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FinTwit Conference 20.. @FinTwitConf
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MarketReader – helping to understand markets in real time A Bloomberg terminal costs USD 30,000 per year, and it requires a steep learning curve from its users. What if you could get Bloomberg quality data and insights, but without the price and the learning curve?
3/ Jens Nordvig, the man behind MarketReader, is a Danish-born PhD economist. His research firm, @ExanteData, has half (!) of the world's top 100 institutional investors as clients, who often pay an annual six-figure sum to get access to the full scope of Exante Data's work.
Despite repeated media attempts, it is inappropriate for me to endorse any candidate for office. As Secretary of State, I am fully focused on secure elections & work every day to ensure that only US citizens vote in our elections. One citizen, one vote.
"Data from China is increasingly unreliable and inconsistent" -- Many people are saying ... -- but @EtraAlex or @ExanteData says is with a great deal of credibility tho with context if should read "[BoP and intervention] Data from China ... " 1/
@jnordvig @GaryHaubold @ExanteData Awesome and thank you for making that point! My apology for missing it.
Four sigma moves in the Yen, as BoJ comments hint at the end of negative rates (finally!) and a bond auction goes sour (don't forget the last part...)
@INArteCarloDoss You may like this table from our @ExanteData client call yesterday... (shows 2y and 10y behavior around yield peaks, which by the way pretty much always coincide...)
The EUR is still gradually leaking (EURAUD, EURNZD, EURCZK, EURCHF, EURCNH, EURCAD...)
We have a big @ExanteData client video call today (follow up on earlier "Peak Rates" call). We will be leading with this slide on global core inflation...
Retracement day (after epic moves at the end of last week, driven by rates)
Third, I have tweeted (or x'ed!) about the interplay between tightening financial conditions for about two months now, and it was important to the peaking process and a change in Fed tone (although that is getting complex now) x.com/jnordvig/statu…
As discussed with @tomkeene @FerroTV and @lisaabramowicz1 just now on @BloombergTV , financial conditions are tightening very fast, and we have to go back more than a year to find any dynamic like this. When will the Fed embed this in their thinking?
The peaking process for global rates has been driving everything, and has been our key focus @ExanteData since September. Here are some materials on the topic:
A headsup from my colleagues at @ExanteData in NYC who called the peak in global interest rates in October. The US CPI print this past week provided a strong confirmatory signal. This augurs well for global liquidity conditions and commodity prices into 2024. ✅ @Tivan_Limited
The higher for longer narrative is looking increasingly stale (a few big picture charts)
Note how the EUR is weak against pretty much everything (from EURAUD to EURCHF). Early ECB rate cut pricing taking its toll...
Bad day for EM (reversing gains from earlier in Nov) and for the EUR (responding to quick normalization in Eurozone inflation data)
US is leading, Asia is 'lagging' in the rates rally...
The largest move in the last 7 days was: Japan 30Y. There were no G10 bond yields that had a 2 standard deviation move during the period.
The higher for longer narrative is looking increasingly stale (a few big picture charts)
Vol seems to be coming down, but USD/Asia still edging generally lower
I spoke this weekend at the Euro conference hosted by @AlbertoBagnai in Pescara, Italy (along with @EuroBriefing @borghi_claudio and others) A few key points from my speech...
Trends for United States
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