Gregory Daco @GregDaco
Chief Economist @EYnews, @EY_US, @EY_Parthenon. Previously Chief Economist @OxfordEconomics, @IHSMarkit. Father of 3. Husband of 1. 🇺🇸 & 🇧🇪. Views are mine ey.com/en_us/strategy New York, NY Joined September 2011-
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🇪🇺Eurozone #GDP growth at 0.3% in Q1 after -0.1% in Q4 ‘23 — fastest rate since Q3 2022 🇩🇪 Germany +0.2% 🇫🇷 France +0.2% 🇮🇹 Italy +0.3% 🇪🇸 Spain +0.7% 👏 on.ft.com/3wgZrLs
It's still always the next CPI print that's the most important one. But IMO the sharp slowing in German<' Apr core rate is quite a bit of signal on top of noise. The expected easing in services (reversal of Easter effect) was amplified by outright large drop in core goods prices.
The Fed’s Quantitative Easing Program Cost Too Much via former New York Fed President Dudley bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
🇨🇳China’s Leaders Hint at New Plan to Fix Biggest Drag on Economy “Those tools outlined by the 24-man Politburo included interest rates and the reserve requirement ratio…first time a readout had mentioned either policy tool since April 2020” bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
🇯🇵BOJ Accounts Suggest Japan Intervened Monday to Support #Yen “BOJ reported that its current account will probably fall ¥7.56 to ($48.2 bb) due to fiscal factors including government bond issuance & tax payments….suggesting intervention around ¥5.5tn” bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
🇺🇸Underlying #inflation momentum is around 2.5% & not reaccelerating. No reason for excessively restrictive monetary policy. ▶️The @NewYorkFed Multivariate Core Trend (MCT) inflation decreased to 2.6% in March (-0.1ppt).
What 60,000 Headlines Say About the Fed’s Next Move bloomberg.com/news/features/… via @economics
Core goods inflation in the eurozone headed for 0%
🇪🇺 Weak growth in the euro area manufacturing sector, and lower price pressures in the services sector. Concerns over sticky inflation and wage growth are not backed by the data.
Ban on non-compete agreements sends shockwave across Wall Street via @FT on.ft.com/3WdMAUQ
⚠️Trump Allies Draw Up Plans to Blunt Fed’s Independence wsj.com/economy/centra…
⚠️UMich Surveys of Consumers will be transitioning from current method of cell phones interviews to web-based surveys from April to July. ⚠️This will lead to a downward bias in sentiment readings and an upward bias in inflation expectations data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php?d…
⚠️UMich Surveys of Consumers will be transitioning from current method of cell phones interviews to web-based surveys from April to July. ⚠️This will lead to a downward bias in sentiment readings and an upward bias in inflation expectations data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php?d… https://t.co/5tYvFDnlx5
Jason Furman @jasonfurman
157K Followers 2K Following Professor of Practice at Harvard. Teaches Ec 10, some tweets might be educational. Also Senior Fellow @PIIE. Was Chair of President Obama's CEA.
Callum Thomas @Callum_Thomas
116K Followers 4K Following Head of Research, Founder: @topdowncharts Global Macro & Asset Allocation Research (tweets = not advice) NOTE: I will never DM you -- beware of scammers.
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60K Followers 2K Following MD Global Macro @TS_Lombard, macro themes/research/risks, central-bank specialist, started career at HM Treasury in late 90s, ex ABN AMRO, AC Milan fan
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Daniel Lacalle @dlacalle_IA
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ISABELNET @ISABELNET_SA
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The disjunction between economic fears and reality is astonishing. Have we just stopped talking about reality altogether?
ECI Private Wages & Salaries grew at 4.5% annualized between December and March (1.1% not annualized). YY at 4.3%. Pre-pandemic, a good rule of thumb for sustainable nominal wage growth would have been ~3.5 (2% inflation target, 1.5% trend productivity). That said... /1
Spain GDP up 0.7%, don't want to say told you so but told you so.
European GDPs up next week. We are all expecting small growth for the eurozone after a long period of stagnation. I am going to stick my head out regarding Spain, where I expect growt to be much stronger than consensus.
The structural undersupply in the housing market isn't just about the number of units, its about the efficiency of use for units. Boomer + Silent generations have basically taken 50% of the housing market offline for those who want to raise children in a single family home.
Might be worth some caution with the Michigan data going forward due to the methodology shift.
⚠️UMich Surveys of Consumers will be transitioning from current method of cell phones interviews to web-based surveys from April to July. ⚠️This will lead to a downward bias in sentiment readings and an upward bias in inflation expectations data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php?d…
.@OxfordEconomics: "The University of Michigan measure of consumer sentiment is transitioning to a web-based methodology that appears likely to depress the headline measure over the next few months. This is another reason not to read too much into current trends..."
Ok nerds, let’s talk triangle weighting. A lot of people (well, two…) have asked my why March core PCE inflation came in as expected at 0.3%, when that was the expectation *before* the GDP report came out with the higher-than-expected core rate for Q1. After all…
The quarterly core PCE data point to an underlying trend right now in the high-2s. The monthly data suggest something a touch firmer--3%. Given the head fake we got on the downside in 2023, not confident in a reacceleration story yet, but inflation progress is slowing. /1
Low 3M inflation in 2023 H2 gave a false signal of where trend was. Likewise, *for now* we should take the firm Q1 with a grain of salt. A simple YY, or a more sophisticated approach that filters out typical noise, yield similar answers: 2.8-2.9%, so ~ 2 1/2-3% w/ upward bias.
👇🎯 Once again, words used to have meaning x.com/mcopelov/statu…
Great illustration of why US stagflation discourse is completely misguided ⤵️
I’m perplexed by the sell-off in stock and bond markets in response to today’s GDP report for the 1st quarter. The increase in real GDP was a bit softer than I had expected, but only a bit, and the report remains consistent with the economy growing at its potential. The weaker…
Today is my last day at @WSJ. I’m joining Yardeni Research as their chief markets strategist, working for Ed Yardeni. Grateful to have worked with truly exceptional colleagues at the Journal. I’m excited to join Yardeni soon; you can reach me at [email protected]
US GDP and real facts Go through the thread 🧵 #GDP
🇺🇸US Economy Disappoints for the Right Reasons 📉 Real #GDP only advanced 1.6% annualized in Q1 2024, following strong +3.4% in Q4 '23 But while the headline print missed expectations by a mile, most of the shortfall stemmed from stronger imports pulled in by solid final demand
EY-Parthenon Chief Economist Greg Daco @GregDaco and John Hancock Investment Management Co-Chief Investment Strategist Emily Roland tell @CNBCTheExchange the economy is not as bad as the headlines suggest.
.@GregDaco this is 💯 the correct take. 👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻 1. Stronger than headline 2. Higher inflation increases the risk of a policy mistake 3. Higher for longer will continue exerting downward pressure on growth and prices.
🇺🇸US Economy Disappoints for the Right Reasons 📉 Real #GDP only advanced 1.6% annualized in Q1 2024, following strong +3.4% in Q4 '23 But while the headline print missed expectations by a mile, most of the shortfall stemmed from stronger imports pulled in by solid final demand
The 3.7% core PCE beat is likely due to revised seasonal factors that boosted some of the PPI items in Jan/Feb (and maybe Mar). Think airfares and imputed financial serv. Mar may be higher due to imputed financial serv. Consensus of 0.30% more likely will straddle 0.3%/0.4%.
Historic debt reductions in small South European economies continue. Public debt to GDP ratio in Greece is now the lowest since mid-2012 (debt write-off), and in Portugal since mid-2010, dropping to below 100%. The two have cast off the long shadow of the Eurozone debt crisis.
Euro area government #debt at 88.6% ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/we…
The unfolding debt reduction episodes in Southern Europe are for the history books. The ones in 🇬🇷🇨🇾🇵🇹 are already the fastest on record - and likely soon to be the largest on record.
Historic debt reductions in small South European economies continue. Public debt to GDP ratio in Greece is now the lowest since mid-2012 (debt write-off), and in Portugal since mid-2010, dropping to below 100%. The two have cast off the long shadow of the Eurozone debt crisis.
Trends for United States
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